Maybe of interest to some of you...

[GazLaz]

http://experimental361.com/2015/09/12/league-1-match-timelines-12-sep-2015/

I love this sort of stuff, statistical analysis of games. That's why I'm fascinated by Brentfords owners vision for running his club. I think he's a genius.

[EpsTheMightyReds]

What an amazingly simple way of summarising each game. Puts in pictures the way 99% of us assess a game after 90 minutes eg we had twice as many chances - they just took theirs. Love it

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz

Interesting stuff, but I'd want to know more about the metrics used.

If is based on PA possession stats, we know that they are not worth a bucket of warm piss at this level. Keep an eye on the figures in any given match and watch how they change. There are frequently 10 min periods where the numbers imply that one team had 125% of the possession. Because those figures are just guesses by the PA rep.

If the predictions are based on number and quality of chances, then our game yesterday looks odd. By half time, we had racked up numerous very good chances (Coppinger, Main x2, ATS, Stewart all had gone close or drawn excellent saves - Walsall had produced, well nothing at all.) By 84 mins, we'd added fingertips saves from Williams and ATS and a close shot from Keegan to our list. Walsall had drawn one excellent save from Stuckmann and seen Bradshaw drsg one across the face of goal when he should have done better after getting in round the back.

On good chances, we were street ahead of them before our defensive melt-down. Yet yer man's figures have them well ahead of us.

[GazLaz]

http://experimental361.com/explanations/match-timelines/

Here is a bit of an explanation. It's not perfect but it's the idea I like.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The idea's not bad but I just don't see how he's populating his data set. How he defines a "good chance".

As I say, by 83 mins yesterday, the PA data (nevermind my own eyes) says that Walsall had produced one shot requiring a save (albeit it was a good shot and a good save). By contrast, Walsall's keeper had made superb saves from Coppinger, ATSx2 and Williams, and we had had Main just squirt the rebound from Coppinger's effort just wide.

And yet his figures suggest that Walsall were comfortably ahead on good chances going into the final few mins. Just doesn't stack up for me.