Just some more stats..

[silent majority]

For those that are interested;

http://experimental361.com/2016/01/03/e-ratings-update-league-1-3-jan-2016/

[normal rules]

so crewe are down and rovers are a solid top half only but not playoffs?

reasonably accurate. lets hope the slimmer odds of a playoff slot kick in.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I appreciate the guy's methodology but the proof is in the overall predictions. And he's saying (overall spark line) that we are a significantly less strong team now than we were 30 matches ago. Yeah, right.

[GazLaz]

It's the same/similar methodology that bookmakers use to price up. Makes them millions a year.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And sometimes gets it wrong. Like offering us at 5/1 to make the top half a couple of months back. That one will give me a nice win come May.

[Sammy Chung was King]

It tells us what a lot of us know, that we are on the edge of either achieving the play offs, but it will be difficult, and we are more likely to finish top half, i just have a feeling we might do it.

[Seadog Minibus]

And sometimes gets it wrong. Like offering us at 5/1 to make the top half a couple of months back. That one will give me a nice win come May.

Have we finished top half?

[SydneyRover]

Last placed play off position for the previous 10yrs. Highest points req'd 80, lowest 69, avg 74. Looking at the last 10 league games with avg of approx 60%, we would need to maintain that to get to that number.
We are travelling well and improving with the team confident. We have to be in with a chance.

[glosterred]

All I see is coloured in squares and different coloured tadpoles

COYR

[BillyStubbsTears]

And sometimes gets it wrong. Like offering us at 5/1 to make the top half a couple of months back. That one will give me a nice win come May.

Have we finished top half?

Is this a question?

[Seadog Minibus]

It is. You said you will get a nice pay day in May - but the season isn't over yet. Anything could happen. You seem very certain.

Also, I can't help but notice this is another one of your "wise 2 months after the event" posts. Unless you were pretty vocal about this wager in November - in which case, well done you.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Seadog

That was supposed to be a "Ceci n'est pas un pipe" type comment.

Nevermind.

The point I was trying to make is that the bookies got the 5/1 odds very wrong. They badly misjudged our strength relative to other sides around us. And yeah, I don't know that we will finish in the top half. If have thought that much was obvious. Im simply nailing my colours to the mast.

As for your concern about my honesty, I know there are and have been some bullshit merchants on here. I'm not one of them.

http://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=254735.msg584750#msg584750

I've had £100 on a 5/1. I'll post the betting slip if you really want it. Personally, I work on the philosophy that unless someone habitually lies through their teeth, I'm prepared to accept that they are telling the truth, but then I'm a hopeless romantic when it comes to people's motives.

[GazLaz]

5/1 is a massive price.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz

It was a f**king barmy price. They were offering less than half those odds against teams who were only a point or two above us. I'd have had £250 on that bet, but it was limited to £100.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Although, for the record, I have no tangible proof that I'd have had £250 on that bet...

[PDX_Rover]

It's the thought that counts though

[Superspy]

Gutted I missed out on that price. I ended up taking 1/1 the other day just as a cover bet to cover the few quid I've put on us to get in the playoffs. I think it's pretty sensible, the way we're playing I just don't see how we can NOT get in the top half.

[GazLaz]

Still evens now and it's an odds on chance. We are still a work in process so there's still improvement in us.

[wilts rover]

It is. You said you will get a nice pay day in May - but the season isn't over yet. Anything could happen. You seem very certain.

Also, I can't help but notice this is another one of your "wise 2 months after the event" posts. Unless you were pretty vocal about this wager in November - in which case, well done you.

I cant help but notice you didnt register until 21st December. Whats the odds on you knowing about people's previous posting history from before that time, never mind November?

[Seadog Minibus]

I cant help but notice you didnt register until 21st December. Whats the odds on you knowing about people's previous posting history from before that time, never mind November?

You can't help but notice? Well, you would have to go to the trouble of looking at my profile to find that info, but fair enough, whatever you say.

And I'd say the odds were irrelevant, I was referring to a previous post I made to Billystubbstears.
http://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=255501.msg596449#msg596449

I'm glad you're here keeping an eye on things though. Makes us all feel safer I'm sure

[BillyStubbsTears]

Seadog.

Yeah. You were wrong on that one an all.

I hope you're not a betting man yourself.

[Seadog Minibus]

Was I? I'll gladly accept that, if you show me where you said Colchester looked like relegation candidates after we played them

I don't tend to bet. I tend to think the bookies always win in the end.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I said it to friends at the game. You'll just have to take my word for it. Given that I don't feel the need to tell lies to big myself up, you'll be on safe ground trusting my word.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way, I'm getting on a bit now so I'm not down wid da haps on this whole internet thing.

Is it usual for people to join forums and start accusing people they've had no previous experience of of telling porkies?

[DRFC]

It is. You said you will get a nice pay day in May - but the season isn't over yet. Anything could happen. You seem very certain.

Also, I can't help but notice this is another one of your "wise 2 months after the event" posts. Unless you were pretty vocal about this wager in November - in which case, well done you.

I cant help but notice you didnt register until 21st December. Whats the odds on you knowing about people's previous posting history from before that time, never mind November?

He's probably Mick.

[Seadog Minibus]

I don't know who that is unfortunately.

I've not accused anyone of telling porkies. I've just been somewhat suspicious of a couple of bold claims, something which happens a lot on the internet thing.

If I've offended anyone, I apologise. Although not to Wilts Rover, who I find very odd.

[turnbull for england]

Ace, who asked for a troll for Christmas ?

[IDM]

I don't know who that is unfortunately.

I've not accused anyone of telling porkies. I've just been somewhat suspicious of a couple of bold claims, something which happens a lot on the internet thing.

If I've offended anyone, I apologise. Although not to Wilts Rover, who I find very odd.

Your suspicions probably lead to a frosty reception..