Referendum - how will we vote Part 2

[Donnywolf]

We ran a Poll on which way you THOUGHT we would vote as a Nation rather than how YOU would vote personally. That was yonks ago and looking just now we thought 60 / 40 that we would vote to Remain

However time has gone by and the vote is 3 weeks today after which we get our TV's back ! People have had chance to read other Polls,  as well as the Mailshots,  and see the powers that be "and their views" , as well as talking to friends neighbours and workmates.

So leaving aside whether you want to Remain or Leave how do you see the Vote actually going ?

[The Red Baron]

I still think it will be Remain, although from a tactical point of view I don't think they have played it well. Too much heavy artillery let off during the early weeks and far too much scare mongering.

[glosterred]

Still undecided, can we have a button for that choice?

[Muttley]

Still undecided, can we have a button for that choice?

The question is how YOU think the COUNTRY will vote, not what your personal vote will be.

[Muttley]

I think it will be REMAIN but perhaps tighter than the 60/40 that was originally predicted.

There should really be a requirement for a clear majority by, say, 10% for a vote of this importance because as usual the "Can't be arsed" party will probably win.

[glosterred]

I think the country is still undecided

[The Red Baron]

I think the country is still undecided

I think there are quite a lot of undecideds, but the reason I think we will narrowly vote Remain is because I think more of those will ultimately vote for what they see as the Status Quo.

[Donnywolf]

I have added a third choice as to be fair someone may think it too close to call. Its a legitimate choice

[Glyn_Wigley]

What about predictions as to the turnout? I think it'll be amazing if we get as many as 50% of the electorate voting.

[The Red Baron]

What about predictions as to the turnout? I think it'll be amazing if we get as many as 50% of the electorate voting.

I'd have thought it would be similar to a General Election.

[Donnywolf]

Very poor too I suspect. Apathy in general and a reluctance by some to vote in case they go the wrong way If I had 2 votes I would cast 1 each way as I change my opinion almost hourly and so I even thought why vote ?

The Electoral Reform people have been polling and in this article seem to think 57% will be about the "score"
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/revealed-voters-turnout-prediction-eu-referendum-and-other-things

Latest odds here re the Remain vote which shows the Bookies think it will be close http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage

[darren61]

 I think we will remain but allowing  Obama to try put the wind up us backfired, that really angered me.

[Glyn_Wigley]

What about predictions as to the turnout? I think it'll be amazing if we get as many as 50% of the electorate voting.

I'd have thought it would be similar to a General Election.

I think it'll be nearer local election turnout than a general election turnout. The last UK-wide referendum only got a 42% turnout.

[tommy toes]

I think the Remainers are winning the battle. The 'evidence' they are revealing in almost every area of trade, finance, security and cost of living should sway the country to stay in.
That coupled with the backing of the vast majority of leaders and economists around the World should tip the balance.
The committed leavers I know are voting that way for one reason. Immigration.
I'll be voting stay.

[darren61]

I agree, but  i think a lot of people will ignore the quite complicated facts and figures and vote with their hearts.

[Donnywolf]

Great summation there TT.

Immigration is the elephant in the room and the danger is it will become / has become a single issue Vote for many and those opposed to immigration / closing our Borders / controlling our Borders will vote that way even though I suspect leaving may not give them what they ultimately want

[Filo]

I think the Remainers are winning the battle. The 'evidence' they are revealing in almost every area of trade, finance, security and cost of living should sway the country to stay in.
That coupled with the backing of the vast majority of leaders and economists around the World should tip the balance.
The committed leavers I know are voting that way for one reason. Immigration.
I'll be voting stay.

To be fair I on't think either side has produced any "evidence" because no one knows what will happen, they've offered opinions, that is all. The World leaders that have spoken have only done so out of fear of what their Country would lose and what it would cost their country, Merkel being a prime example.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

Obviously we are talking about a future where there may be unforeseen events that we cannot predict.

However, that's the case in all human endeavour. It doesn't stop you think sensibly about possible outcomes.

ALLof the detailed scenario considerations have come from the Remain side. Whether on economics or security. It's all come from that side.

The Leave side are playing a disgraceful game. They don't want voters to engage with those considerations. So they smirk and say "oh experts! Who trusts them? They always get it wrong."

That is a horrifyingly dangerous attitude to breed. Not just on this issue, but in general. It encourages people to disengage from thinking and to go with populist tub-thumping that strikes a chord with your own prejudices.

The latest one who was at it was Neil Hamilton on QT last night. Just think about it. He was in essence saying, "Don't trust the economists and the intelligence leaders and the heads of the military. What do they know? Listen to ME. Neil f**king Hamilton. Gobshite, cash-for-questions cheat, failed politician, bankrupt after failed libel cases and D-list reality TV star. They know nothing. I am the one to trust."

Terrifying that so many people agree with him because he tells them what they want to hear.

[Filo]

Filo

Obviously we are talking about a future where there may be unforeseen events that we cannot predict.

However, that's the case in all human endeavour. It doesn't stop you think sensibly about possible outcomes.

ALLof the detailed scenario considerations have come from the Remain side. Whether on economics or security. It's all come from that side.

The Leave side are playing a disgraceful game. They don't want voters to engage with those considerations. So they smirk and say "oh experts! Who trusts them? They always get it wrong."

That is a horrifyingly dangerous attitude to breed. Not just on this issue, but in general. It encourages people to disengage from thinking and to go with populist tub-thumping that strikes a chord with your own prejudices.

The latest one who was at it was Neil Hamilton on QT last night. Just think about it. He was in essence saying, "Don't trust the economists and the intelligence leaders and the heads of the military. What do they know? Listen to ME. Neil f**king Hamilton. Gobshite, cash-for-questions cheat, failed politician, bankrupt after failed libel cases and D-list reality TV star. They know nothing. I am the one to trust."

Terrifying that so many people agree with him because he tells them what they want to hear.

My mind has been made up long before the current pantomime began.

I tend to ignore what leaders of other Countries think, they're only interested in their own Country and rightly so, as for the militery implications, we don't need the EU, we are a member of NATO, those very same Countries are bound by treaty to come to our defence if needed, we won't be expelled from NATO if we leave

[BillyStubbsTears]

And when the only senior economist in the country who supports Brexit is the man who convinced Thatcher that monetarism would fix the economy in the 1980s?

On the security side, it's NOT just a NATO thing. NATO is a part of our security, but equally, it's about having a united EU face against Putin. NATO manages the guns and missile side of our strength. But it's not NATO that organises economic sanctions when Putin invades Ukraine.

Putin wants Europe fragmented and weakened so there's no united economic and political willpower to confront him when he plays his games. He wants to be able to bully and pick off countries one by one.

Why do you think he so desperately wants us out and the EU weakened? Doesn't that concern you?

[Filo]

Before Turkey shot down that Russian plane it would have concerned me, since that incident it has shown that Putin wouldn't attack a NATO member, both sides are scared of what the other will do so nothing will really happen

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

It's not an issue of immediate military conflict. It's about the political and economic pressure that Russia can bring. Russia hasn't gone into Turkey with guns and bombs. It's hit it with sanctions instead. Estimated to have knocked 1-2% off Turkish GDP.

That's the kind of bullying that the EU can knock back. But individual countries can't. And I'm not talking about us directly. But more about smaller countries in Europe being picked off and brought back into the Rusdian fold.

I want a free, liberal democratic Europe. I don't want European people being commanded by a gangster state. It's critically important for the strategic future that our grandkids will inherit.

[tommy toes]

Immigration is more the White Elephant in the room John.
The influx of people from Eastern Europe has been GOOD for this country. The vast majority are hard working people who work long hours in low paid jobs and pay their taxes.
I live on a new estate and many of the houses are rented by Poles and Latvians including the couple next door who we get along with just fine.

[darren61]

I agree with this but a lot of people for example will see whats happening in Hexthorpe and disagree.

[The Red Baron]

Very poor too I suspect. Apathy in general and a reluctance by some to vote in case they go the wrong way If I had 2 votes I would cast 1 each way as I change my opinion almost hourly and so I even thought why vote ?

The Electoral Reform people have been polling and in this article seem to think 57% will be about the "score"
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/revealed-voters-turnout-prediction-eu-referendum-and-other-things

Latest odds here re the Remain vote which shows the Bookies think it will be close http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage

That 9/4 at 50-55 Remain looks good. Fill your boots.

[Filo]

Immigration is more the White Elephant in the room John.
The influx of people from Eastern Europe has been GOOD for this country. The vast majority are hard working people who work long hours in low paid jobs and pay their taxes.
I live on a new estate and many of the houses are rented by Poles and Latvians including the couple next door who we get along with just fine.

The opposite argument to that is until recently the house next door to me which shares a drive with me of which I own 75% of it was rented out, we had numerous Eastern Europeans as neighbours who totally had no respect for my access to my drive, they were a nightmare to have next door. Thankfully the house has now been bought by a young British couple who show respect

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

The house next to mine is full of British students who were up till 3am last night playing loud music.

Should I be in favour of closing down Universities?

[Dutch Uncle]

And when the only senior economist in the country who supports Brexit is the man who convinced Thatcher that monetarism would fix the economy in the 1980s?

On the security side, it's NOT just a NATO thing. NATO is a part of our security, but equally, it's about having a united EU face against Putin. NATO manages the guns and missile side of our strength. But it's not NATO that organises economic sanctions when Putin invades Ukraine.

Putin wants Europe fragmented and weakened so there's no united economic and political willpower to confront him when he plays his games. He wants to be able to bully and pick off countries one by one.

Why do you think he so desperately wants us out and the EU weakened? Doesn't that concern you?

Absolutely fully agree with your post BST, although it is interesting in many cases it can be the same senior figures meeting in a different forum. The North Atlantic Council (Senior body in NATO which makes the political decisions) comprises the Heads of State (possibly the Minister of Defence as a deputy) of the NATO nations.