Mail on Sunday.

[Mr1Croft]

The title of the book of said hatchet job will be Momentum's main tag line going into the snap election later this year.

#DangerousHero

Well done Mail.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And that's why Labour won't win the next Election Crofty.

Momentum convincing themselves that a tag line like that will have widespread appeal because it appeals to them.

That's why no-one in Momentum will countenance talking about Corbyn having approval ratings amongst the electorate in general, measured in the teens. Because his approval rating amongst them is measured in the 90s. So of COURSE he's the right leader.

[Mr1Croft]

And that's why Labour won't win the next Election Crofty.

Momentum convincing themselves that a tag line like that will have widespread appeal because it appeals to them.

That's why no-one in Momentum will countenance talking about Corbyn having approval ratings amongst the electorate in general, measured in the teens. Because his approval rating amongst them is measured in the 90s. So of COURSE he's the right leader.

I agree with most of what you say, but being a self proclaimed Corbynista it's difficult to take the approval ratings at face value when media outlets like the mail can publish such a hatchet job.

Now, I'm not saying Corbyn's poor approval ratings are SOLELY down to the media, but after nearly a 4 year campaign of throwing so much mud you would expect something to stick.

That being said I do think that when May's Premiership blows ip in the spring and she is forced to call a general election I do think that despite the low approval ratings despite the 'un-encouraging polls', Corbyn will win.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Crofty

Fair points. The issue is though that it's no good complaining about the media. Every Labour leader has to deal with a generally unfriendly media. The question is what you do about it.

My take has always been that a Labour leader has to be better than a Tory leader to survive. Better in terms of not making gaffes, giving free hits, losing support that shouldn't be lost.

On those scores, Corbyn has had a shockingly bad 18 months.

Yes he proved himself an excellent campaigner in 2017, and yes, May proved herself to be barely a functioning human being. But those factors are baked in now. They won't shock the electorate when the next election comes (and it won't be this year). Those factors are baked in and the electorate overwhelmingly prefer the worst Prime Minister of modern times to Corbyn. It's profoundly depressing and it can't even be discussed, because he's beyond criticism.

[wilts rover]

That's a very brave prediction Billy. I predict the only way there wont be an election this year is if we crash out on 29th March. Because if May gets her deal through with a backstop the DUP will bring her down and if she gets it through with a CU, the ERG will.

It should keep the Daily Fail in newsprint for a while...

[BRMC_rover]

The problem lies beyond Corbyn it's the crazy fringe group Momentum which is calling the shots for the Labour Party that's the issue.

Whether you like Momentum’s objectives or not, they are hugely responsible for a surge in membership which has resulted in the Labour Party now being the largest in members of any European political party. Representation of this support is a must, in any democracy and frankly, without it, Labour will again be victim to the Tories tactically entrenched power and our outdated electoral FPTP system, which the Tories have had ring fenced for years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's a very brave prediction Billy. I predict the only way there wont be an election this year is if we crash out on 29th March. Because if May gets her deal through with a backstop the DUP will bring her down and if she gets it through with a CU, the ERG will.

It should keep the Daily Fail in newsprint for a while...

Not a chance in a million that the ERG would force an election. Why on earth would they?

And you're missing lots of other alternative outcomes.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The problem lies beyond Corbyn it's the crazy fringe group Momentum which is calling the shots for the Labour Party that's the issue.

Whether you like Momentum’s objectives or not, they are hugely responsible for a surge in membership which has resulted in the Labour Party now being the largest in members of any European political party. Representation of this support is a must, in any democracy and frankly, without it, Labour will again be victim to the Tories tactically entrenched power and our outdated electoral FPTP system, which the Tories have had ring fenced for years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aye. But for all the impressive membership figures (and they ARE impressive, albeit that they've shrunk by 150k this past 12 months) there's some context needed here.

Labour's membership is about 1/60th of the voting electorate.

It is about 1/25th of what you'd need to get the slimmest of majorities.

So Labour needs to appeal far beyond that committed membership. And faced with the worst PM, worst Govt and biggest national crisis since the War, at a time in the electoral cycle when the opposition usually surges, Labour has gone down by 5-10 points in the polls this last year.

[tommy toes]

The problem lies beyond Corbyn it's the crazy fringe group Momentum which is calling the shots for the Labour Party that's the issue.

Whether you like Momentum’s objectives or not, they are hugely responsible for a surge in membership which has resulted in the Labour Party now being the largest in members of any European political party. Representation of this support is a must, in any democracy and frankly, without it, Labour will again be victim to the Tories tactically entrenched power and our outdated electoral FPTP system, which the Tories have had ring fenced for years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aye. But for all the impressive membership figures (and they ARE impressive, albeit that they've shrunk by 150k this past 12 months) there's some context needed here.

Labour's membership is about 1/60th of the voting electorate.

It is about 1/25th of what you'd need to get the slimmest of majorities.

So Labour needs to appeal far beyond that committed membership. And faced with the worst PM, worst Govt and biggest national crisis since the War, at a time in the electoral cycle when the opposition usually surges, Labour has gone down by 5-10 points in the polls this last year.

Yes and those figures are why Corbyn should step down. I was a massive Corbyn fan at the last election and for some time afterwards.
But the moment had passed.
In the real world, which is not Momentum, to get in Government a party has to have broad appeal and sady this version of the Labour Party never will.

[The Red Baron]

Crofty

Fair points. The issue is though that it's no good complaining about the media. Every Labour leader has to deal with a generally unfriendly media. The question is what you do about it.

My take has always been that a Labour leader has to be better than a Tory leader to survive. Better in terms of not making gaffes, giving free hits, losing support that shouldn't be lost.

On those scores, Corbyn has had a shockingly bad 18 months.

Yes he proved himself an excellent campaigner in 2017, and yes, May proved herself to be barely a functioning human being. But those factors are baked in now. They won't shock the electorate when the next election comes (and it won't be this year). Those factors are baked in and the electorate overwhelmingly prefer the worst Prime Minister of modern times to Corbyn. It's profoundly depressing and it can't even be discussed, because he's beyond criticism.

It's very unlikely he will face May in a GE again, almost certain if there is no snap election this year.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good point TRB.

In which case, the outlook for a Corbyn-led Labour party is even bleaker, as you'd expect a bounce in support for the Tories when they replace May. Usually happens when a deeply unpopular PM is replaced.

Cameron-May: Tories went up from mid-30s to low-40s.
Blair-Brown: Labour went up from low-30s to low-40s.
Thatcher-Major: Tories went up from mid-30s to mid-40s.


Not good signs for Labour. and this is why there is no way that the ERG will force a General Election any time soon. They can't eject May until December at the earliest. So why would they force an Election that they might lose through having such an unpopular PM, when they can replace her with a fresh face in December and call an election as and when they choose.

I don't understand where this feeling comes from in Labour that there is a realistic chance of there being an imminent GE. But the focus on that is f**king up the perception of Labour in the wider electorate, especially the anti-Brexit voters.
 

[selby]

  Billy, if there is another general election, would you tell us what parts of their manifesto we the electors should take notice of.
  Will 48% of your supporters know what they are voting for this time?
  In which room in the house should we hang it behind the door so we can ponder if it is a load of B******S again and if we can believe anything on it again?

[selby]

   If there is another general election perhaps we could have a competition running alongside it guessing which elected MP's would be the most likely to vote in the House of Commons against the wishes of the people in their constituency which they were elected to represent.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

It's like being on a hamster wheel buddy. You ask a question. I give an answer. You ask the same question. I think I'll step off the wheel if you don't mind. You can go back and look at previous answers.

[selby]

  I just like to bring up the points that matter to people, to most of the people you batter with reams of points that you admitted, some of which you knew were in your parties manifesto and they  would not be prepared to implement, and were in the manifesto to attract votes to gain power, which you admitted was your only real ambition.
   Yet you try and claim the higher moral ground when it comes to publications like the Daily Mail and I will raise you and add the Guardian.
   To be fair to you it is common practice for politicians to jump off the wheel when they don't like the questions, you must be spending too much time with like thinking people so I am not surprised. 

[tommy toes]

I'll answer then.
The Mail is full of lies and half truths designed to keep the Tories in power while not reporting on issues that make them look bad.
For instance the recent story about bus services being cut due to Councils being skint. It was on BBC news and headlined in The Mirrror.
See if you can find it in the Mail or Express.
The point you can take from Labour's manifesto is that Austerity would end completely and money would be pumped into public services, infrastructure and industry to get the economy moving again.
Before you ask where is the money coming from?
From borrowing.
Which will be offset by increases in productivity, employment and income tax from PROPER jobs.

[wing commander]

And that's why Labour won't win the next Election Crofty.

Momentum convincing themselves that a tag line like that will have widespread appeal because it appeals to them.

That's why no-one in Momentum will countenance talking about Corbyn having approval ratings amongst the electorate in general, measured in the teens. Because his approval rating amongst them is measured in the 90s. So of COURSE he's the right leader.

I agree with most of what you say, but being a self proclaimed Corbynista it's difficult to take the approval ratings at face value when media outlets like the mail can publish such a hatchet job.

Now, I'm not saying Corbyn's poor approval ratings are SOLELY down to the media, but after nearly a 4 year campaign of throwing so much mud you would expect something to stick.

That being said I do think that when May's Premiership blows ip in the spring and she is forced to call a general election I do think that despite the low approval ratings despite the 'un-encouraging polls', Corbyn will win.

   And that's the problem with Corbyn supporters,even though its blindingly obvious over the course of a administration that he is both politically incapable and totally mistrusted by the general public making him unelectable,they still believe he will win...He wont..
   I dearly wish that Labour would see this and change him as leader,and elect someone who can take the fight to the Tory's and stop giving them such a free ride...

[tommy toes]

Re: the Bus cuts. I apologise the Mail did report it and laid the blame solely on pensioners with free bus passes.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6685043/amp/Half-bus-routes-scrapped-650million-blackhole-boom-free-passes.html

[Sprotyrover]

There have been hundreds of thousands of words posted on this forum about Brexit yet you have to look far and wide for any information on what they would do about the situation if in power, that's because Jeremy the Jew Hater is too much of sa loose canon.
I recall when he came up to the Trades club and announced he would re open the Pits, when he got off the train at Kings cross it was a didderent story altogether. IRA, Hezbullah supporter then he wonders why he is unpopular!

[tommy toes]

Yep he's unpopular because too many people believe the crap you've just posted.
That's why Labour are behind in the polls.
And that's why he should step down.

[wilts rover]

That's a very brave prediction Billy. I predict the only way there wont be an election this year is if we crash out on 29th March. Because if May gets her deal through with a backstop the DUP will bring her down and if she gets it through with a CU, the ERG will.

It should keep the Daily Fail in newsprint for a while...

Not a chance in a million that the ERG would force an election. Why on earth would they?

And you're missing lots of other alternative outcomes.

Well I could list a lot more possible outcomes but that would bore even me and the ones above seem the most likely at the moment.

Why would the ERG force a GE? Because they are zealots and if May does the opposite to what they want and what she has promised them a GE is the best way for them to remove her bring in a right wing agenda.

I don't however think it will happen now - not if this article by Paul Waugh is true and if it is true we should all be very worried:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-fallback-plan_uk_5c617348e4b0910c63f30fc8?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics

[Glyn_Wigley]

   If there is another general election perhaps we could have a competition running alongside it guessing which elected MP's would be the most likely to vote in the House of Commons against the wishes of the people in their constituency which they were elected to represent.

May votes against the wishes of her constituency every time she votes for Brexit. Go figure.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.
I'm sorry but that's nonsense.

Think about it.

How could the ERG forcing an election get rid of May AND bring in a right wing agenda?

If they force an election and she wins, their stuck with her. If they force an election and she loses, they're out of power.

They'll be shut of her come December. Why on earth would a bunch of rabid right wingers give Corbyn a shot at No10 now, for no obvious possible gain?

[Mr1Croft]

Billy,

I don't think there will be much choice for May, other than to call a General Election.

If her deal gets through she will lose the DUP's support, the backstop is supported by Sinn Fein, the talk of an unification of Ireland has gathered pace in the last couple of months and May's deal only increases the likelihood of a referendum taking place (in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement). The DUP cannot support that and leave May with a minority Government. She can (and I believe will) try to govern as a minority but the chances of a No Confidence motion passing increases massively.***

If she doesn't get her deal through and we leave without a deal, I think the Parliamentary and Cabinet fallout will be so great, combined with public backlash she will either have to resign, call a snap election, or both.

If we extend Article 50, it will be an acceptance of her failure to negotiate a deal that Parliament will back, the likelihood of a second referendum grows and I can't see how she could cling to power in those circumstances. I don't think even she has the audacity to continue on as if nothing has changed if she has failed to deliver her flagship policy.

The only scenario that doesn't result in a general election this year is if she decides to adopt Labour's policy of a CU and banks on the ERG not forcing an early election for the reasons you mentioned.

*** I don't think Irish Unity is anything but a remote possibility anytime soon. But the polls currently show unification only a handful of points behind staying in the UK, and we haven't even left the EU yet. I just can't see the DUP containing to support May if her deal increases the likelihood of such a poll being held.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Crofty.

There won't be a GE in a No deal or A50 extension scenario. You're overestimating the importance of pride in modern politics.

[Glyn_Wigley]

If the DUP force a General Election, their magic money tree will disappear in a puff of democracy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Crofty

Regarding Irish reunification, I can't help thinking you've got a logic error somewhere.

It's not May's deal that would make a unification poll more likely. It's No Deal (or a no backstop deal).

The DUP are against the former and in support of the latter.

There's no mechanism by which May's deal passes and that leads to a unification poll and THAT leads to the DUP removing support from the Govt.

One thing I will say, after 40 years of following politics.

Younger people tend to overestimate the chances of a sudden, major change. Older people tend to underestimate the chances.

Sudden changes DO occur. But they tend not to be due to foreseeable things. Because, usually, the foreseeable problems are managed and avoided. They tend to come from unexpected sources.

The Falklands, which saved Thatcher.

Geoffrey Howe's assassination speech that killed her.

Black Wednesday that finished off the Tories for a generation. 

John Smith's death that opened up the path for Blairism.

The Great Financial Crash that killed Brown and elevated Cameron.

The country suddenly realising in 2017 that May couldn't function as a normal human being.

Those are the things that turn the direction of politics.

 So yeah, maybe there will be something that brings down this Govt. But it's far, far from a given, and it's highly unlikely to be the ERG or the DUP choosing to give Corbyn a go. And, given that she survived the biggest Govt defeat in history without so much as an embarrassed blush last month, I'm struggling to see what personal humiliation could make May chuck in the towel.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Aye, Boris and JRM could set her on fire and then piss on her and she'd still be saying 'I'm delivering what the people want'.