Food for thought?

[Jonathan]

Okay well if people are drawing a conclusion that Flynn was a better manager for us than O'Driscoll then I guess there isn't really much more to be said on the matter.

It's a frankly ludicrous assertion, but I wouldn't say I'm entirely surprised we're heading down that line. I don't think there's much point discussing it further.

But nobody has said they ARE better managers. The line is STATISTICALLY they have been better. Which they clearly have.

So what conclusion are you drawing from that?

I am not sure he is drawing any conclusions

Precisely. I'm just saying what the stats show.

Not a great deal.

[drfchound]

Okay well if people are drawing a conclusion that Flynn was a better manager for us than O'Driscoll then I guess there isn't really much more to be said on the matter.

It's a frankly ludicrous assertion, but I wouldn't say I'm entirely surprised we're heading down that line. I don't think there's much point discussing it further.

But nobody has said they ARE better managers. The line is STATISTICALLY they have been better. Which they clearly have.

So what conclusion are you drawing from that?

I am not sure he is drawing any conclusions

Precisely. I'm just saying what the stats show.

Not a great deal.

But it does Jonathan, it shows very clearly that DF is our worst performing manager in L1 out of a list of six.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound

And when you look at the wider context, his record after 50 games in L1 is not a great deal worse than O'Driscoll's was at the same time. O'Driscoll picked up 63 points from his first 50 games in charge. Despite all the benefits he had which I've laid out earlier in the thread. That was worse than Dickov's record.

Not many of us saw that we were on the verge of one of the most astonishing runs of form in the club's history. Most of us thought we were drifting aimlessly and seriously underachieving.

[IDM]

I thought the thread was about the UB40 song...

[Dare to dream!]

BST

You made this point about Dickov and look how that ended. For me we've underperformed under DF including last season. However at this moment the situation isn't critical but the next few games will tip the balance either way and will determine DF future.

I'm still in two minds about DF but edging more towards a change being required. What puts me off changing managers is the potential calibre of manager we will get next. Danny Wilson was close to being offered the job before Ferguson and Lee Clark was a front runner..I'd rather stick with Ferguson than appoint managers like that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

DtD

And I also made the point about O'Driscoll. And look how that ended. Relative to expectations and budgets, I'd argue that O'Driscoll was doing worse in early 2007-08 than Ferguson is in early 2017-18. Do you agree?

I made the mistake in 2007 of being utterly convinced that O'Driscoll was clueless. I'm seeing a lot of equally certain people here ten years on.

Personally, I'll admit I'm very torn. I was amazed that Ferguson survived the end of 15/16. Managers don't survive runs like that anywhere else but here. On the other hand, had the last 15 mins of last season gone differently, it would have ranked amongst the best 10 in our history. You have to credit him for that, whilst equally being concerned at how it faded. This season, I've seen bits of excellence and quite a bit of shoddiness. I think I know what he is trying to achieve. And I think that he had built a side to play the style he wants before Baudry and Andrew got injured.

It wouldn't surprise me if he got the push. But I'm not screaming for it. Yet.

[Chris Black come back]

SOD was clever enough though to win something in his first season, which gave him some credibility. Ferguson got us relegated in his first season. 

Interestingly I don’t think there has been a manager at Rovers in living memory who cared less about cup competitions than SOD. He was canny enough though to realise that to give himself time to get his ethos and style fully embedded in the club, he had to do something in that first season other than survive. After that, he barely bothered with cups again.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CBCB.

You're sounding like you're signed up to the Cult of Sean's Infallibility!

You reckon he got the side playing brilliantly in the JPT in 2007 whilst performing shockingly week after week in the league? You reckon that was smart?

I'll give you my take. I reckon he struck lucky in the JPT. A striker he didn't rate and couldn't wait to drop scored for fun in that competition. And JJ picked the perfect moment to dive in the box when we were about to balls-up a semi that we'd had totally under our control.

I agree, that JPT win bought him time. He said so himself. But I don't think that was part of the Master Plan. I'd say I was the luck of the game. Some managers get it. Some don't. And it doesn't always count anyway. The best proper cup run in our history didn't help Penney when he started 06/07 as badly as O'Driscoll started 07/08.

Funny old game.

Anyway, if we're talking about buying time, does winning a promotion with 5 matches to spare count on the positive side of the ledger?

[Chris Black come back]

Yes, definitely a positive - although most of us would hope that our dog cleared up the crap they have just left on the kitchen floor.

You raise a number of very reasonable points and some fair caveats about respective performances of our managers. There is only so far this can go though - factoring all those in it is still hugely concerning that Ferguson is so statistically poor compared to our other recent managers at this level.

What is more, he has very decent resources and decent players, which are currently and have consistently underperformed their individual and collective abilities.

This is a manager who with some justification can be seen to be making our squad less - rather than more - than the sum of their individual parts. We simply cannot afford that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CBCB.

I fully agree. However...

X is so statistically poor compared to our other recent managers at this level.

What is more, he has very decent resources and decent players, which are currently and have consistently underperformed their individual and collective abilities.

This is a manager who with some justification can be seen to be making our squad less - rather than more - than the sum of their individual parts. We simply cannot afford that.

Replace "X" with "O'Driscoll" and you would have been perfectly correct in making exactly that case precisely 10 years ago. That's the point I'm making.

[Alan Southstand]

Please define decent! Is that based on fact or your personal opinion and/or assumption?

The only thing we know, as supporters, is what has been made public, in that the budget is a 'competitive' one. I even question that, as it just hasn't equated to one 'decent' signing in the summer!

The budget, whatever it is, imo, is part of the problem.

[drfchound]

I guess the only time we will really know whether it was right to say byebye to DF (if it does indeed happen) will be when we are in the future.
I have no doubt that if it goes well there will be people saying i told you it was the right thing to do.
That will also apply if we go into further free fall as the DF supporters will let us know that the decision was a wrong one.

With hindsight maybe i should have put this on a different thread, what is it called....................................................oh yes, hindsight.

[wilts rover]

Whilst the overall career stats are useful in doing just that - comparing and contrasting overall career stats - I dont believe they are the best measure to the start we have had this season. I reckon that is the 2008-09 season - a young squad with most of them playing a level above that they have ever played in their career.

So at this stage in the season 15 games we have: won 4 drawn 3 and lost 8, with 17 goals for and 20 against.
O'Driscoll's team had: won 2 drawn 3 and lost 10, goals for 5 - against 22. And it didn't get much better for another couple of months.

Another comparison with that season and this is that we were never really being outplayed in many games. We had a lot of possesion, created a lot of chances, just couldn't score.

I have no idea if Fergie can produce as big a change and turn around in form as O'Driscoll did in that season - he couldn't in his future jobs - but it has been done.

[dickos1]

This just shows how ludicrous some of our fans are, comparing a side that had just got relegated out the championship with one just promoted out league 2.

Absolute nonsense

[Chris Black come back]

We are all on the same side buddy!

Drink some camomile tea and put The Archers on. Breathe deeply....in...out...in.....out.

[dickos1]

I'm not sure we are

[RedJ]

Why, cos some people have a different opinion to yours that means they don't support the same team?

[dickos1]

Nothing to do with opinions

If someone posts constantly after a defeat and is not seen at all after a victory then that explains an awful lot

[drfchound]

To be fair though, some of the people who want him gone post on here whatever the result has been.

[dickos1]

They do hound
But there's also some that don't.

I was only talking about those

[i_ateallthepies]

O'Driscoll's side won 11 points fewer than Leeds that season.

You've stumped me there BST - I thought we finished 3rd in the table that season, ahead of Leeds in the playoffs?

[drfchound]

Leeds began on minus 15 points that season.

[i_ateallthepies]

Thanks Hound, the advantage of having some memory chips left eh?

[RedJ]

O'Driscoll's side won 11 points fewer than Leeds that season.

You've stumped me there BST - I thought we finished 3rd in the table that season, ahead of Leeds in the playoffs?

Do you not remember Uncle Ken's "the REAL table" or whatever he called it?

[i_ateallthepies]

I do RedJ.  It quickly was forgotten though after 25th of May 2008.