Odds

[Glyn_Wigley]

Omg here we go again.

If sunderland get relegated again after being one of the favourites for promotion what does that make the odds again, just a set of numbers designed to make the bookmakers money.

Exactly. Probability and odds are not the same thing.

[GazLaz]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.

So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.

If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be.

To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate.

So you agree that odds are a reflection of money bet then?

One last time, I’m saying they use sophisticated methods to price up events. Any errors they make are quickly capitalised on by people with equal or more sophisticated methods and by the time of kick off the respective chances of the teams are as accurate as they can possibly be.

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

[Bezza]

and were did they put Shrewsbury last season ?

[Glyn_Wigley]

and were did they put Shrewsbury last season ?

Are you talking about the bookies or the 'best minds'?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

[KiwiRover]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

The probability of me dying is 1/1.
If you can find a bookie who'll give you evens on it, you'll have done well.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

The probability of me dying is 1/1.
If you can find a bookie who'll give you evens on it, you'll have done well.

All of life is 5/4 against.

[GazLaz]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

[mpc123]

Exactly you have already shortened the odds based on your own maths. The odds are that it will happen at some point but nobody knows exactly when. As Glyn keeps on sayings odds and probability are not the same thing.

[GazLaz]

Exactly you have already shortened the odds based on your own maths. The odds are that it will happen at some point but nobody knows exactly when. As Glyn keeps on sayings odds and probability are not the same thing.

They can both be converted into a % chance of something happening. You will both never grasp the concept though I don’t think.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

The probability is 6/1. No doubt you think I'm winding you up again.

[GazLaz]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

And the probability is 6/1.

Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

And the probability is 6/1.

Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing.

And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.

And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.

PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.

[mpc123]

Some people are pro gamblers for years and understand the difference of the concept of putting odds infront of consumers and a consumer mindset of making that one big hit cash win and the other of a book overround to ensure money is made no matter what the odds are, if they make sense or not.

[Glyn_Wigley]

One other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?

[GazLaz]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

And the probability is 6/1.

Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing.

And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.

And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.

PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.

I mean the chances are the same not the way you display the figures. You really are a f**king dope aren’t you.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

And the probability is 6/1.

Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing.

And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.

And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.

PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.

I mean the chances are the same not the way you display the figures. You really are a f**king dope aren’t you.

The chances are the same..? So one chance in five (5/1) is the same as one chance in six (6/1)? How you display the figures is EXACTLY how you describe the chances.

As for who the 'f**king dope' is, I'll leave that to other people reading this.

[RedJ]

One other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?

Some bookies just must have better minds than others...

[GazLaz]

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

Odds and probability are not the same thing.

If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.

You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here.

5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.

And the probability is 6/1.

Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing.

And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.

And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.

PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.

I mean the chances are the same not the way you display the figures. You really are a f**king dope aren’t you.

The chances are the same..? So one chance in five (5/1) is the same as one chance in six (6/1)? How you display the figures is EXACTLY how you describe the chances.

As for who the 'f**king dope' is, I'll leave that to other people reading this.

When you role it the chances are always the same and there are multiple ways of displaying the possible result. Percentage, fraction, odds (decimal, fraction, American odds), probability... all can be converted into each other. What you are saying is like saying, how can 30 Celsius be the same as 86 Fahrenheit...

[GazLaz]

One other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?

Some bookies just must have better minds than others...

The minds create the statistical models that create the prices. They don’t come up with the prices.

[Glyn_Wigley]

When you role it the chances are always the same and there are multiple ways of displaying the possible result. Percentage, fraction, odds (decimal, fraction, American odds), probability... all can be converted into each other. What you are saying is like saying, how can 30 Celsius be the same as 86 Fahrenheit...

So if 5/1 is the same way of expressing the one chance in six of throwing a six, let's follow the logic:

1 chance in 6 = 5/1
1 chance in 5 = 4/1
1 chance in 4 = 3/1
1 chance in 3 = 2/1
1 chance in 2 = 1/1
1 chance in 1....er, how do you express that?

PS No good trying to throw the temperature red herring into the BS.

[RedJ]

One other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?

Some bookies just must have better minds than others...

The minds create the statistical models that create the prices. They don’t come up with the prices.

I know. I was taking the piss.

[Glyn_Wigley]

One other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?

Some bookies just must have better minds than others...

The minds create the statistical models that create the prices. They don’t come up with the prices.

How do they come up with different odds then, if the probabilty of an event is the same for everyone?

[Bristol Red Rover]

So if 5/1 is the same way of expressing the one chance in six of throwing a six, let's follow the logic:

1 chance in 6 = 5/1
1 chance in 5 = 4/1
1 chance in 4 = 3/1
1 chance in 3 = 2/1
1 chance in 2 = 1/1
1 chance in 1....er, how do you express that?

PS No good trying to throw the temperature red herring into the BS.

1 chance in 1= 1/0 aka "Bets Suspended"

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.

So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.

If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be.

To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate.

So you agree that odds are a reflection of money bet then?

One last time, I’m saying they use sophisticated methods to price up events. Any errors they make are quickly capitalised on by people with equal or more sophisticated methods and by the time of kick off the respective chances of the teams are as accurate as they can possibly be.

Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.

One other thing that I forgot to address in reply to this: you're making the massive assumption that the people who place a lot of money somehow have access to every scrap of knowledge and that therefore the odds are a reflection of probability.

What would happen to the odds if a 'f**king dope' like me bet a million quid on Rovers to win the league? Would the odds go up, go down, or would they remain the same because somehow the bookies would know I'm a 'f**king dope'? Presumably any change to those odds would then mean that it was more probable that Rovers would win the league!

Oh, and one more thing - do you know what percentage of bets the bookies expect to be losing bets? And yet according to you those same losing bets are supposed to have been by the best minds and altered the odds to reflect probability!

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

Well first of all betting £1 million pounds on Rovers winning the league would be a bad idea for many reason's, but number 1 on my list would be that most bookies have a maximum payout of around 2-3 million on football bets, So you'd be better off going for an even money or 2/1 shot really.

Secondly if a f**king dope(incidentally I don't think you're a f@%king dope) placed a huge bet online, said bookie would have the punters entire betting history to draw conclusions from. They have entire departments dedicated to client control where they not only rate how profitable customers are but also which sports, which leagues and in which way (ie being good at predicting market moves rather than results) customers perform. Brand new customers or shop customers that the bookies have no knowledge of would almost certainly have their bets restricted to irrelevant levels if they tried to put a million on anything.

Pre season antepost prices will not be as solid as your Saturday coupon prices (too many variables with players and managers moving about) but still pretty accurate and they still wouldn't change the prices for random large bets and are a lot more likely to change it based on a tipsters tweet or a known good source profitable customer (Ironically they probably would also be restricted as to what they could win but the bookies would still use the info - this usually happens mostly in next manager markets and other stuff that has no algorithm's involved)

[KiwiRover]

This thread is spookily on topic.
3 pages and no mention of the budget!