Peterborough

[albie]

BST,

Why would adopting Ref2 as policy be useful if it can't be delivered?
It just gets in the way...an irrelevance.

The IFG link makes it clear it is no longer possible before October.
To do as you say at this stage would be to risk shooting yourself in the foot.

I don't see why you think there will be a snap election in October.
It is possible, but not probable.
 
It is likely only if an EU cannot be delivered by no deal or Norway.
I think a compromise will be found precisely to avoid a GE.

Your argument is that Labour should change policy priority because we are in a pre-election phase.
If that proves incorrect, you are chasing a lost cause after the fact.
Your complete failure to face the issue speaks volumes.

No, I do not agree Labour support has collapsed. I think it has reduced, but that it can and will rise again in a future GE scenario.

Gordon Brown was the precursor to the austerity of the 2010's, with bailing out the banks without fundamental reform, and PFI expansion throughout the public finances.
He created the conditions under which austerity could gain traction.

Who can forget Ed Balls committing a future Labour Government to keep to Tory spending plans for the first 2 years?.....oh, you can!

So yes Billy, you are missing something...quite a lot.

[BillyStubbsTears]

What a bizarre response. I usually enjoy your posts Albie but that one has gone off the rails.

Where to start? Where to start?

1) Of COURSE we're in a pre-Election phase if Johnson pulls back a chunk of BP support and Labour don't recover. If we hit Sept with Con 35, Lab 22, LD22, Johnson would be an idiot not to go to the country.

2) You think that Labour's support going from 40% to 20% in 6 months is a reduction not a collapse? Phew...

3) You say having a policy you can't implement is an irrelevance. Which ignores the great big elephant in the room, bedecked with flashing neon lights which say "It is because of you refusing to take a policy stance on this subject that 6million of your erstwhile supporters have left you." I KNOW the line from the Dear Leader's coterie is to continue the constructive (sic) ambiguity on Brexit, but, well, I'm a tad concerned that it's not really going too well out there in the real world (see 2, above).

4) You think a lot of the lost supporters will return at the General Election. We aye. But as I said, relying on a "we don't give a shite what you want on the biggest issue of the generation, we expect you to vote for us because the alternative is worse" electoral slogan is...well, probably sub-optimal.

5) Which brings us back round to 2010 and the Left. If you really have drunk the "Brown was a Red Tory so The Left was right to help get rid of him and enable Austerity" kool aid (which is the only conclusion I can draw from your post) then any further adult dialog between us is pointless.

[wilts rover]

I am just not seeing the same polls as you Billy. One for the Independent tomorrow show Labour with a small lead and voters don't trust Johnson or Gove (no, why wouldn't they).
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-leadership-race-boris-johnson-gove-poll-untrustworthy-brexit-a8950536.html

Even the Daily Express, hardly the epitome of a hard left paper, say electing Johnson will lead to a Corbyn government.

Personally I do think that Peterborough means it is almost certain Labour will be backing remain quite soon. A deal is all but dead, maybe if Rory Stewart gets in, but all of the serious candidates say they will renegotiate or no deal.

Neither of those two things will happen so there is going to be a public vote. If that is a GE why would any Brexit supporter vote Tory if we are still in the EU - or any remain Tory vote for a policy stance of no deal?

Labour's policy at that public vote will be determined by members, as it always has been, and Corbyn will follow that, as he always has done. Again in a GE they will be up against a Tory party in chaos and the LD's having to explain why they want to follow exactly the same policies that caused Brexit in the first place.

If only people would hold their nerve and let the natural run of events take it's course.

[scawsby steve]

Errr, well actually you were Steve. In your opening post you said it looked like a 'foregone conclusion'. As was Farage before the public of Peterborough told him it wasn't.

I saw that about it being the 203rd target seat. I wonder how he has worked that out? According to the referendum Peterborough was the 100th most leave seat.

Personally I think they stand their best chance of winning in Tory seats that had a strong leave vote.

Ah, I'm glad you've pointed that out Wilts, so I can put the record straight. The foregone conclusion I mentioned was based on the Ladbrokes odds I'd quoted, not on my own opinion.

As for Farage, he apparently thought all the bookies odds being offered were ridiculous, and way off the mark. The result was much closer than anticipated.

Yes, Peterborough did vote 61% Brexit in the Referendum, but don't forget some areas voted as high as 70%. Those are the danger areas for Labour.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Maybe you need to look a little harder then Wilts.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Last 6 polling figures for Labour before today: 20, 19, 19, 26, 22, 19. They are in a table in the National Polling Results section.

The poll you show for the Indy, by Kantor may well be a better indicator. Although it's worth noting that Kantor got the EU elections spectacularly wrong. They predicted Lab24, LD15, Green 8. Whereas the actual results were 14, 20, 12. I don't know what their methodology is, but that suggests they are wildly underestimating the swing from Lab to LD and Green

[albie]

No Billy, it is not off the rails...it is bang on the money.

Your points:
1)
The key point you make is IF.
The point I put to you was what IF NOT.

The figures you give are just made up. No evidence exists to support those conclusions about levels of support.
An early GE is a risk...no-one takes such a risk if it is not needed.
...ask toxic Treez!

2)
Labour support hasn't gone from 40% to 20% irreversibly.
It is normal for support to vary according to the issue centre stage and the interest of voters in expressing a view.

There is no read through from a mid term poll in a febrile polarised debate to a GE which may not take place until 2022.

3)
As above.

4)
A GE creates its own downdraft.
The idea that you need to take a position so far in advance is incorrect.
It is better to take a measured approach to the question in front of you at the time you form a policy framework for a GE.

You do not know whether Ref2 will still be relevant after the end of October.
If the Tories call an early GE I think it is likely to be after an EU exit, NOT before.

5)
Not a matter of debate, Billy. Simply a matter of fact.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/pfi-banks-barclays-hsbc-rbs-tony-blair-gordon-brown-carillion-capita-financial-crash-a8202661.html

There is a complete record of the scam of PFI across many outlets. If you can't accept that, then you have been in a coma for a decade.

On your old mate Ed Balls, here he is continuing the great tradition:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/12/balls-reaffirms-labours-commitment-cuts-2015

Some stuff is behind a paywall, so I have posted the links you can see.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

If you see dropping from 40% to 20% in 6 months as "normal", I'd hate to think what you consider to be abnormal.

I've looked back through polling data going back to 1970. Labour has only ever seen a fall in polling numbers of 20% twice before in that period.

In 1981, after the founding of the SDP. It took 12 months for Labour's support to drop that far.

In 2007-09 in the teeth of the worst global recession in 70 years. It took 2 years for Labour's support to drop that far.

Of course you'll not need me to point out that in both those cases, Labour lost the next election.

And the one after that.

And the one after that.

Which brings me to a straight question. Did you vote Labour in 2010 and 2015?

Did you vote Labour in 2010?