One week to go..

[wing commander]

   Well we have entered the final week of campaigning and the election is nearly upon us.Their doesn't seem to be much movement in the polls or betting with the general feeling is that we will be looking at a small Tory majority for the next term.

   Of course it wouldn't take a massive swing away from them to result in a hung parliament and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we will be in the same position as when we started.

   Tonight is the leaders debate and Corbyn needs a really strong showing as it's now obvious that Labour wont be able to get a majority in their own right as the people just don't believe Corbyn is fit to be PM even above a clown like BJ,so a hung Parliament and a pact with the SNP is really their best bet now.

   If he doesn't achieve that then I suspect this time next week will be the day Corbyn resigns as Labour leader something I believe if he had done 12 months ago we would be just about to get a labour government..

   For all you Labour voters out their what is the best result you are realistically hoping for now????

[Herbert Anchovy]

   Well we have entered the final week of campaigning and the election is nearly upon us.Their doesn't seem to be much movement in the polls or betting with the general feeling is that we will be looking at a small Tory majority for the next term.

   Of course it wouldn't take a massive swing away from them to result in a hung parliament and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we will be in the same position as when we started.

   Tonight is the leaders debate and Corbyn needs a really strong showing as it's now obvious that Labour wont be able to get a majority in their own right as the people just don't believe Corbyn is fit to be PM even above a clown like BJ,so a hung Parliament and a pact with the SNP is really their best bet now.

   If he doesn't achieve that then I suspect this time next week will be the day Corbyn resigns as Labour leader something I believe if he had done 12 months ago we would be just about to get a labour government..

   For all you Labour voters out their what is the best result you are realistically hoping for now????

My hope is that people see sense. Open their eyes to the devastation that 9 years of Conservatism has had on the lives of many, many people in the country. Have some compassion to those less fortunate than themselves. Particularly the more ‘moderate’ Conservatives out there. Of course it won’t happen. Conservatism is built on the basis of free market economy where human collateral is viewed as a price worth paying. Ultimately, Tories don’t really give two hoots about people living in poverty as long as they’re ok. As John Lennon famously said “give people cheap fags and colour tellys and they’ll let you get away with anything.”

Result wise, hung parliament is probably the best we can hope for.

[BillyStubbsTears]

WingCo.

Good post. One issue I have with it though is this.

It actually wouldn't take a huge swing from where the polls are now to get a hung parliament.

The Tory lead is now about 9%. It's been reducing slowly and steadily for a month or so. If it ends up at 6%, there's likely to be no Tory majority. 3% is within the margin of error of the polls.

I'm not saying it will be a hung parliament, and it's certainly not the favourite but it's not a huge leap away.

Much of the campaign has reminded me of 2017. The Tories have hit a ceiling, as they did in 2017. Labour has steadily risen.

Three big unknowns now.

1) The extent of anti-Tory tactical voting.
2) The effect of the huge number of last minute voting registrations. Something above 10% of the entire electorate registered in the last few weeks. The overwhelming majority of them under 35.

3) Whether (as in 2017) the pollsters are picking up the younger vote. They admitted in 2017 to underestimating the turnout from younger voters and that's why most of them didn't predict the very close outcome. A week from the election in 2017, many of the polls were predicting that we were on course for a 40-50 seat Tory majority.

3) The extent to which the collapse of the LD and Green vote, with voters moving to Labour carries on over the next week, and crucially, when people have the pencil in their hand next Thursday. Labour has pulled something like 3 million supporters back from the LDs and Greens during this campaign. Another 1.5m o er the next week and we'll be in very different waters.

We'll see.

[wing commander]

   "Of course it wouldn't take a massive swing away from them to result in a hung parliament and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we will be in the same position as when we started."

I do agree Billy and I did say that in the op.

Although,I'm not sure I fully agree with you on the strength of surge to Labour though,although it certainly isn't beyond the realms of possibility.Of course a hung Parliament will bring a whole new set of problems again though, and as daft as this might sound from a tory,i would prefer a majority from one side or another.Hung parliaments don't tend to get much done..

I always keeps my eyes on the bookies odds on these things as they are never far off.A Tory majority is now 1/3 and a hung parliament is 11/4 which is quite close too...

However right now I bet the Labour activists treading the streets wish they had a different leader to sell,they would have walked this election if they had,and not clinging to the hope of a hung parliament.

It'sgoing to be a fascinating last week,i've even booked Friday off work so I can stay up all night to watch it unfold..lol

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sorry I misread that WingCo. Was dashing between meetings. I thought you'd said it WOULD take a massive swing. My mistake.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not going to be here for the results for the first time ever. I've stayed up watching at least some of the results in every election since 1974. But I'm going to be in China with work next week. Don't even know if they will censor the news. Last time I was there, every time anything political came on BBC World News in the hotel TV the screen went blank.

[wing commander]

  Yes is suspect that will still be the case tbh so doubt you will learn much of what went on whilst your out there..However have a safe trip.

[Donnywolf]

Since the Election was called I have been pragmatic thinking Labour have no chance and I have been hoping for a "no change" Hung Parliament as the least damaging outcome

Then perhps we can try Johnsons Deal or Mays Deal whichever "they" want to try versus Remain

I would accept the result either way and never mention it again

[drfchound]

I'm not going to be here for the results for the first time ever. I've stayed up watching at least some of the results in every election since 1974. But I'm going to be in China with work next week. Don't even know if they will censor the news. Last time I was there, every time anything political came on BBC World News in the hotel TV the screen went blank.

Couldn’t you tune in to the vsc forum BST.
I am sure you would get updates from here.

[Donnywolf]

I will promise to put the one word :

YAAAAAAHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOO if there is a Hung Parliament

[bahrain rover]

I am same as you BST. On Thursday I will be flying home to Philippines even further away from the mess than I already are. But unlike you I couldn't care or give a flying toss about the out come of the result  .

[SydneyRover]

you'll have to send some 'postcards' on hotw the politics are there BR

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I have the day off this Friday, given the little man will be keeping me up no doubt overnight I'll be tuning in.

The next few days are the real interesting bit.

[Donnywolf]

Wonder if Johnson gets a small Majority (say 10) if he could still Get B****t done in Parliament with maybe some MPs still rebelling given there could still be a No Deal in December 2020

Probably Flinty and others would still back him from th Labour Benches but there may be enough going the other way ?

Hope I dont need to find out.

Once Swinson goes into partnership with Johnson (she says she wont) - I hope at least LDs DEMAND a Peoples confirmatory Vote AND a Referendum on PR as well

[scawsby steve]

Wonder if Johnson gets a small Majority (say 10) if he could still Get B****t done in Parliament with maybe some MPs still rebelling given there could still be a No Deal in December 2020

Probably Flinty and others would still back him from th Labour Benches but there may be enough going the other way ?

Hope I dont need to find out.

Once Swinson goes into partnership with Johnson (she says she wont) - I hope at least LDs DEMAND a Peoples confirmatory Vote AND a Referendum on PR as well

Good guess Wolfie. My prediction is also something around the 10 seat majority mark.

Of course, it's still possible that anything could happen.

[Ldr]

I'll stick my neck out and say 24 seat majority.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm expecting 30-40 seat majority

[selby]

  The latest polls are suggesting you are nearer the mark Billy.

[Filo]

Hung Parliament for me, the tactical vote will be crucial