Next 3

[bpoolrover]

If we play attacking football like at the start of the season we have a good chance

[BillyStubbsTears]

I know where you're coming from Pilskin, but I think you're being slightly pessimistic. Yes our away form is not stellar, and yes we still have 11 away fixtures left. But only 2 of those 11 are against sides currently in the top 10 (Rotherham and Portsmouth) while 7 are against sides in the bottom 10 (Tranmere, Bolton, MK, Accrington, Shrewsbury, Blackpool, Lincoln). We are good enough to pick up 13-14 points from those 7, IF we are on our game. We absolutely should not be looking at less than 9-10 points from those games as a worst case, or we'll have seriously under-performed. That, together with say 9 points minimum from 6 home games (four of which are against sides currently in the bottom 6) would put us in the top half, without even considering the other four games away at top half sides. Look at it that way and it is a very long shot to imagine us finishing in the bottom half.

[Pliskin]

BST,

I did say that I think we'll end up 9th or 10th, and I agree that it is a bit of a long shot to see us finish in the bottom half. But is that more of a long shot than us finishing in the top 6?

Unless we get lucky and a low points total is required for 6th, then realistically, hereonin we will require away form almost on a par with what Rotherham and Ipswich have attained so far, the best two away records in the division.

I am quite pessimistic about our chances to be fair mainly because of that H/A split, but that sort of run does seem very unlikely. More unlikely than a poor run, say fewer than 14 points from 11 away which could leave us in the bottom half? Probably.

Of course, we could just smash our 6 remaining home fixtures then job's a good 'un.

[drfchound]

17 games remaining, but only 6 of them at home. It'll be a big ask for us to pick up the 30+ points with that run of away fixtures.

Let's say our home form (currently 50% win rate) improves slightly and we win 4 out of the remaining 6, that puts us on 53-55 points. Can this team get 18+ points from 11 away fixtures? As a reference we have taken 13 points from the 11 away games played so far.

Purely on that basis I don't think it's at all likely. If we are to do it, you'd imagine that the next two away, Tranmere tomorrow and then Bolton, are must win just for starters, and very little room for error at home.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say finishing just inside the bottom half is more likely than a top 6 finish. But I'll go with 9th or 10th.

The next two away games are Tranmere and Gillingham.
Bolton, next Tuesday, is a home match.