2018

[Chris Black come back]

18 league games, 21 points.

Beaten four teams: MK Dons (23rd currently), Blackpool (11th), Fleetwood (15th) and Bradford (10th).

Does show that we have work to do for next season, primarily winning games. We have become reasonably competent at holding the better teams but we need to be winning more.

[drfchound]

Far too many draws.

[Brian Young]

We have from the start of the season we didn’t have enough forwards fit or good enough  . I’m sure this will be sorted for next season .

[Chris Black come back]

This season we have quite rightly focused on staying up (although with 3 games to go we do not have mathematically safety) which may have influenced our football, both in terms of being hard to break down and also not being that exiting to watch largely.

Next season we have to make that leap past just stopping people winning, to winning ourselves. That will take a change in mindset and strategy if we are to kick on from here. Potentially personnel also.

[BillyStubbsTears]

League 1 this season has been an odd one. Take out the top 3 or 4 and a couple at the bottom and there’s little to choose between what’s left. The current gap between Charlton in 5th place and Oldham, 4th bottom is just 20 points. Usually the gap between those positions would be 30-odd points.

So yes, there is still a hypothetical chance that we could go down. Equally, at 16:45 on Saturday there was still a hypothetical chance that we could make the play-offs. You rarely get those two options still being open so late in the season.

In that context, there have been very fine margins between us being a genuine play-off contender and being in a serious relegation scrap.

 That makes it tough to know just where we are for next season. I suspect there will be more of a gap between the playoffs and the bottom. So you couldn’t just say a couple or three more wins here and there and we’ll be contenders. But then again I do think we are close to having a strong side. There haven’t been many matches this season where you’ve come away thinking “how the hell did we get anything out of that?”  Whereas thereve been a good few where you’ve left thinking “a bit more maturity/steel and we’d have taken points from that one.” The squad will be a year stronger mentally next season. Two or three good additions and we ought to be playoff contenders.

[Not Now Kato]

Far too many draws.

Far too average in an average league.
 
Played 43
Won    13
Drawn 15
Lost    15
Goals For       52    Average 1.21 per game
Goals Against 51    Average 1.19 per game
Highest Placing   9th
Lowest Placing  19th
Current Placing 14th
 
Yep, pretty average.

[GazLaz]

Our fans have just been spoiled over the last 15 years. Not used to being mid table. It involves a lot of inconsistency, mediocrity and averageness!

[Lifelong supporter]

It also involves a lot of injuries...

[Bristol Red Rover]

Midtable is a result for this side. As BST says, next season they're a year older, and that makes a big difference, and I'm sure was always part of Fergies plan. Play off contenders next season maybe, but I see 2019-20 as the season we should be more focussed on. One or two key players coming in after this season and the same after next season should do it, though without some wily foxy prospecting it will cost the club more than what I think is currently on the table.

[dickos1]

People are moaning about a midtable record when before the season started they said they’d be delighted with a midtable finish

Weird

[RoversAlias]

I will probably always be at least satisfied with us being a midtable League One side so long as we are trying our best. What more can you truly ask for? I do think our fanbase has been spoiled the last 15 years, expecting drama right down to the last every year.

[scawsby steve]

I will probably always be at least satisfied with us being a midtable League One side so long as we are trying our best. What more can you truly ask for? I do think our fanbase has been spoiled the last 15 years, expecting drama right down to the last every year.

I take your point, Alias; the only trouble is that sustainability can only be achieved if people are coming through the turnstiles; if we are meandering about as a mid-table League One side year after year, gates will drop dramatically and people will demand a change of manager. Besides, it wouldn't fit in with our 5 year plan.

[ravenrover]

What about if we are winning well at home games, do you still think the crowds would drop?

[scawsby steve]

What about if we are winning well at home games, do you still think the crowds would drop?

If we're winning well at home games, Raven, I doubt that we'd only be mid-table; this season for example, we've only won 7 at home, that says it all. If we win plenty of our home games, people will always come through the turnstiles.

[BigH]

I think our mentality has improved and will continue to improve next season. This group can now be confident that they can compete and that will see an improvement in results.

That said, DF needs to have a good close season. By that I mean a couple of good signings, getting a few off the books who, dare I say, act as a bit of a drag on the squad and players coming through pre-season friendlies not suffering from season-long injuries. He needs a bit of luck in that respect.

We're not a millions miles away. I have far more confidence in this group than, say, Dickov's squad where you just knew they were destined for a bit of a downward spiral.

Genuinely, I'm looking forward to a pre-season for the first time in about 4 years.

[Brian Young]

Far too many draws.

Far too average in an average league.
 
Played 43
Won    13
Drawn 15
Lost    15
Goals For       52    Average 1.21 per game
Goals Against 51    Average 1.19 per game
Highest Placing   9th
Lowest Placing  19th
Current Placing 14th
 
Yep, pretty average.

Asuming this type of result was always on the cards and staying up was the first priority, are we expecting better next season or is staying up the new ambition.

[Campsall rover]

The mentality is to improve season on season. That’s without question is’nt it?
Small steps as just throwing money at it just isn’t the answer.
Usually leads to disaster doesn’t it. Sustainability is the key word and some patience is needed.
Once we get to the Championship then the budget will need to be increased considerably to stay there and it WILL BE as the revenues will be much higher.
The board have said they want Championship football and I believe they are genuine in that ambition. Patience Patience Patience.
Let them build something that is sustainable and NOT BOOM & BUST.

[ravenrover]

What about if we are winning well at home games, do you still think the crowds would drop?

If we're winning well at home games, Raven, I doubt that we'd only be mid-table; this season for example, we've only won 7 at home, that says it all. If we win plenty of our home games, people will always come through the turnstiles.

but that is my point, do well at home and the crowds will come, to some it doesn't really matter how we perform away as they never go to away games

[steve@dcfd]

What about if we are winning well at home games, do you still think the crowds would drop?

If we're winning well at home games, Raven, I doubt that we'd only be mid-table; this season for example, we've only won 7 at home, that says it all. If we win plenty of our home games, people will always come through the turnstiles.

but that is my point, do well at home and the crowds will come, to some it doesn't really matter how we perform away as they never go to away games

Winning at home and performances help to improve the crowd. But winning in this league especially with a developing side is not a given.
In 2007/2008 we won 14 games at home but that was a very good side.
In 2012/2013 we won 10 games at home with a experienced dogged team.
So far this season we’ve won 7 with a developing side, if players had taken more of the chances created and at times defended, as a team, better we would have won more and be higher in the league.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dutch Uncle has a post a few years ago which, if I recall correctly, seemed to show a trend towards fewer home wins in recent years.

This link suggests that there were relatively few home wins in L1 in the early 2010s.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/64igc3/home_advantage_statistics_across_64_leagues_80000/

42% on average. Which is also what the figure is for this season.

Look back to the 90s and early2000s and the figure was more like 47-50% from the years that I’ve looked at.

It is worth thinking about. On average, you’re going to come away from 3 out of every 5 home matches not seeing your side win. On average, you’re only going to see your side win at home 9 and a bit times a season.

Since we got promoted to the Championship 10 years ago, this is how many home wins we’ve had each season.

9
9
7
4
10
9
7
7
14
7

Average 8.3 home wins a seasons. Only in the two promotion seasons did we perform better than the average expectation (and only just in 12/13).

[Bristol Red Rover]

There's been a clear decrease in the percentage of home wins out of the total wins for Donny over the years. I blame the cushy comfort of travel, hotels and less scaggy away dressing rooms. Arguably this trend reduces home support, and overall support, in the game.

To save space here's a summary of that, League only (Midland League in the earlier days):

2010's 57%
2000's 59%
1990's 61%
1980's 65%
1970's 69%
1960's 71%
1950's 77%
1940's 55%
1930's 72%
1920's 74%
1910's 73%
1900's 76%
1890's 81%

An interesting blip in the 4 1940's seasons.

(attachment here is of season by season data)

[Dutch Uncle]

BST is right in that I did perform an analysis of declining Home successes across the top four leagues. It was prompted by the 2014-15 season when for the first time in our history we combined a positive away record (more matches won than lost) with a negative home record (more matches lost than won).

It ended up as an insanely complicated Fanzine article, but attached is one powerpoint slide from it showing the pretty steady decline in Home successes measured in points won and average goal difference per game from 1958-59 to 2014-15. The points won by home teams reduced steadily from about 66% to 56%. In 1960-61 on average Home teams scored 0.8 goals per game more than away teams. By 2014-15 that was down to 0.3.

We had a discussion on here about possible causes with more professional and defensive football by away sides being just one. BRR's point about better travel and hotels is also a good one.

Edit: For consistency and symmetry I used the old 2 points per win system throughout the whole period.