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Omg here we go again.If sunderland get relegated again after being one of the favourites for promotion what does that make the odds again, just a set of numbers designed to make the bookmakers money.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 11:40:22 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 11:27:26 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 01:18:15 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 11:28:01 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 10:34:52 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football. Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about. So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be. To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate. So you agree that odds are a reflection of money bet then?
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 11:27:26 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 01:18:15 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 11:28:01 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 10:34:52 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football. Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about. So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be. To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 01:18:15 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 11:28:01 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 10:34:52 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football. Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about. So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 11:28:01 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 10:34:52 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football. Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 10:34:52 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football. Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.
Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.
and were did they put Shrewsbury last season ?
Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDont think about money, its just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.
Dont think about money, its just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDont think about money, its just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.The probability of me dying is 1/1.If you can find a bookie who'll give you evens on it, you'll have done well.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.
Exactly you have already shortened the odds based on your own maths. The odds are that it will happen at some point but nobody knows exactly when. As Glyn keeps on sayings odds and probability are not the same thing.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here. 5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 01:48:45 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here. 5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though. And the probability is 6/1.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:17:02 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 01:48:45 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here. 5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though. And the probability is 6/1. Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing.
Quote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 02:20:13 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:17:02 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 01:48:45 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here. 5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though. And the probability is 6/1. Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing. And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:23:41 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 02:20:13 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:17:02 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 01:48:45 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here. 5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though. And the probability is 6/1. Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing. And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.I mean the chances are the same not the way you display the figures. You really are a f**king dope aren’t you.
One other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?
Quote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 02:37:46 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:23:41 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 02:20:13 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:17:02 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 01:48:45 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 12:56:40 pmQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 12:35:56 pmDon’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening. Odds and probability are not the same thing.If you really think they are, tell me what you think the odds are on throwing a dice and rolling a six.You’re the biggest attempted wind up merchant on here. 5/1 on your die roll, 16.7%. I’d be 9/2 if you wanted a bet though. And the probability is 6/1. Well done Einstein. There are different ways of expressing the same thing. And yet you agreed with me that the probability and odds will different after saying they're the same thing.And you had the cheek to say I knew zero.PS How on earth do you get 5/1 to be the same thing as 6/1? Just curious.I mean the chances are the same not the way you display the figures. You really are a f**king dope aren’t you. The chances are the same..? So one chance in five (5/1) is the same as one chance in six (6/1)? How you display the figures is EXACTLY how you describe the chances. As for who the 'f**king dope' is, I'll leave that to other people reading this.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:29:06 pmOne other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?Some bookies just must have better minds than others...
When you role it the chances are always the same and there are multiple ways of displaying the possible result. Percentage, fraction, odds (decimal, fraction, American odds), probability... all can be converted into each other. What you are saying is like saying, how can 30 Celsius be the same as 86 Fahrenheit...
Quote from: RedJ on July 24, 2018, 02:45:00 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 02:29:06 pmOne other thing that strikes me as curious...if odds are 'just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening', how come different bookies offer different odds? Shouldn't they be all the same price?Some bookies just must have better minds than others... The minds create the statistical models that create the prices. They don’t come up with the prices.
So if 5/1 is the same way of expressing the one chance in six of throwing a six, let's follow the logic:1 chance in 6 = 5/11 chance in 5 = 4/11 chance in 4 = 3/11 chance in 3 = 2/11 chance in 2 = 1/11 chance in 1....er, how do you express that?PS No good trying to throw the temperature red herring into the BS.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 11:59:00 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 24, 2018, 11:40:22 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 24, 2018, 11:27:26 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 01:18:15 pmQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 11:28:01 amQuote from: GazLaz on July 23, 2018, 10:34:52 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on July 23, 2018, 08:44:13 amYes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football. Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about. So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be. To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate. So you agree that odds are a reflection of money bet then?One last time, I’m saying they use sophisticated methods to price up events. Any errors they make are quickly capitalised on by people with equal or more sophisticated methods and by the time of kick off the respective chances of the teams are as accurate as they can possibly be. Don’t think about money, it’s just a case of the best minds out there settling on the correct probability of an event happening.