Polls

[scawsby steve]

Source: YouGov Poll for Sunday Times

Conservative  35%

Labour  21%

Lib Dems  19%

Brexit  12%

After the appalling, calamitous week that Johnson and the Tories have had, that poll is a terrible indictment on the opposition parties of this country.

No wonder I've no political allegiances.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Just one of many polls though.  Key thing to remember is one issue doesn't often lead to a change in these things, he change will come as and when policies are announced.

[tommy toes]

Shows the country is crazier than Boris.

And shows what a sterling job the establishment and right wing media have done in convincing people that the Labour Party are communist scum.
Which is what I was called several times at the prorogue demo last Satdi.

[albie]

With some experience of the polling industry (some years ago), I would be very cautious about drawing conclusions from a single pole in a volatile circumstance.

YouGov have been an outlier in recent years. The Survation poll gives a different range of readings;
https://www.survation.com/how-bad-was-boris-johnsons-week-it-depends-who-you-ask/

Best not to use polls to predict anything at this stage....lots of water to flow under the bridge before a GE.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

I agree about the difficulty in judging polls in the current circumstances, but you can't just dismiss YG as outliers. They got the EU elections in May pretty much bang on.

The country appears to be in two pretty much immobile groups.

About 45-47% supporting Con/BP.

About 53-55% supporting Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC.

Call them the Hard Brexit and Not Hard Brexit groups.

The polling question comes down to how those figures break to the individual parties within those groups.  YG are at the extreme end of assuming Lab is low and LD/Green is high. Might not be right, but as I say, it was pretty much on the money at the last actual election.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just as a balance though SS.

CON: 31% (-4)
LAB: 28% (+4)
LDEM: 17% (-1)
BREX: 13% (-1)

via
@DeltapollUK
05 - 07 Sep

[BillyStubbsTears]

And HERE is the problem for the Tories if there's no Brexit by 31 Oct.

Johnson has done a brilliant job of grabbing the lion's share of the 45-47% hard Brexit vote share, and sidelining the BP.

The polls suggest that comes to a juddering halt if we're not out by 31 Oct as he has repeatedly sworn we would be.

http://britainelects.com/2019/09/07/poll-tories-will-struggle-in-an-election-if-brexit-delayed/

Johnson has played that date to help his support. You cannot blame the other parties for playing the same game, and delaying the vote, to try to make that advantage unwind.

[albie]

New poll out from ComRes for the Telegraph;
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEIdYhbU4AAqzgh.jpg

Believe it if you wish.....I suspect it is just more vapourware at this stage.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'd like to believe it Albie. God knows I would. But ComRes did massively over-predict the Labour vote share and under-predict that of the LDs and Greens in the EU elections, so who knows.

[RobTheRover]

1488 is no sample size for accuracy, I'm afraid.

[albie]

Aye, RTR, and that is the point I have been making about taking a poll result and jumping to conclusions not supported by the data.

Too often, people see a poll headline which they think supports their own view, then go on to suggest a+b=z.
The simple matter of the prompt for Green and/or Brexit in the methodology biases the outcome, something not reflected in the media responses.

The polling companies know this, and the small print will include a disclaimer.
Small sample polling has been displaced by big data analytics, and is a legacy throwback.

Our political culture retains a fond affection for the old ways, and the use of polls is really a political tool to create a groundswell behind a developing narrative.
It sets the scene for media framing of the storybook.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Any poll size has a 95% confidence interval that goes with it. The larger the poll size, the smaller the confidence interval

It's simple statistical theory, assuming that the basic algorithms behind the poll selection and weighting are sound.

I've noted several times that all the polling companies are getting the same figure for support for the Hard Brexit parties combined (Con + BP =45-47%) and for the Not Hard Brexit parties combined (Lab+LD+SNP+PC+Green = 53-55%).

Barring the very rare outlier (and there will always be outliers even in the most perfect polling) those numbers have been Rick steady for 4 months.

 The key question is, how do those blocs break to each of the constituent parties? Here, there are obvious differences in the way each polling company is weighting between the different parties, in particular in the Not Hard Brexit group.

Currently, ComRes are typically putting Lab on high 20s% and LD+Green around 18-20%. You Gov have Lab on very low 20s and LD+Green in the mid to high 20s.

I WANT ComRes to be right, but the fact is that they were dreadfully wrong in the EU elections, whereas YG were pretty much bang on.

[wing commander]

Shows the country is crazier than Boris.

And shows what a sterling job the establishment and right wing media have done in convincing people that the Labour Party are communist scum.
Which is what I was called several times at the prorogue demo last Satdi.

You are that blinkered you are in denial

 It's really easy for you to blame the right wing press,it's a easy get out to paper over your own party's dismal effort at persuading the Country that Labour is a viable alternative..

 I ask you this,what is Labours position on Brexit?? because nobody not even themselves seem to be able to communicate it.Yesterday we have Corbyn continuing his strategy of trying to keep Labours remainers and Leavers on the same page by promising another referendum with options for both sides if they are elected.However once again he doesn't actually tell anybody just which side Labour will campaign for..That was closely followed by Labours deputy leader calling for something totally different to what Corbyn said...The press whether it be left,right or timbucktoo can only carry these interviews as they are said and until they get together sort themselves out and agree on a position going forward that they all agree to,campaign on they have two hopes.No hope and Bob hope and Bobs left town..!!!

[SydneyRover]

As around 70% of the media is owned and run buy the right wing it's a reasonable assumption to make. + the fact that the sun, the yellow press's yellow press and the most circulated bowl of dog shit in the UK owned by Murdoch runs the Murdoch line 24/7/365.

[wing commander]

   Were your argument falls down is that this just isn't about the written word being manipulated to suit..It's broadcasting what they say infront of the TUC or in various on camera interviews after, like yesterdays you cant manipulate that no matter what wing the paper is or whether it's newsnight,itv or sky...It's there in full technicolour for people to see,listen too and shake their heads at..

[BillyStubbsTears]

WingCo

That's not really true though. Very, very few people will watch the whole thing. Most people will get a sense of it from headlines or articles that choose what to report.

Perfect example last week. You know I'm no fan of Corbyn, but I watched PMQ live and he ripped Johnson to pieces. That was the common opinion of lots of independent commentators.

BBC News led with: "PMQ: Corbyn refuses to say if he'd back Remain."

For every 1 person who actually watched PMQ, 100 will have seen that headline.

[wing commander]

  Don't get me wrong Billy,i am not for one minute denying that the right wing press is bias on some of the things it chooses to report because it does and your example given is a valid one..

   The point I am trying to get across is that a lot of people blame that entirely on why the Labour party are doing so badly and it's just not true and the reasons and examples I gave are prime examples of that,and until both Labour officials and supporters start to accept that,recognise and stop giving tap in's left right and centre like yesterday.Then to the electorate they are not a viable alternative...Surely that's a point you can agree on????

[RobTheRover]

The printed press is becoming less and less influential.  Facebook and twitter paid content is where it really is having impact on public opinion.  The Average Joe or Josephine seems less interested in challenging stuff they see on FB for validity for some reason.  FB (god knows why) seems to be a trusted platform.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I agree entirely.

I've said all along that the right wing bias in the media is a given, and for the Left to shout "It's not fair!" is just a cop out. You have to address it by getting your message across clearly and sharply. On Brexit, Corbyn has been a disaster in those terms. Hence Labour's collapse in support this year.

[SydneyRover]

  Don't get me wrong Billy,i am not for one minute denying that the right wing press is bias on some of the things it chooses to report because it does and your example given is a valid one..

   The point I am trying to get across is that a lot of people blame that entirely on why the Labour party are doing so badly and it's just not true and the reasons and examples I gave are prime examples of that,and until both Labour officials and supporters start to accept that,recognise and stop giving tap in's left right and centre like yesterday.Then to the electorate they are not a viable alternative...Surely that's a point you can agree on????

And right on queue direct from the Murdoch mouthpiece:

om Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)

Sources in No10 now hitting back at the Scottish judges, suggesting they are politically biased: "We note that last week the High Court in London did not rule that prorogation was unlawful. The legal activists choose the Scottish courts for a reason".
September 11, 2019

Apologies if you have all seen this before I've been in a bit of a wifi blackhole.

Added: and it's always more difficult to disprove something once it's out there.

In the recent Australian Federal election our proud new far right PM vertually shut parliament down before the polls, didn't schedule anything because his team had been 0n the nose for the last 3 years. Enter the campaign supported by Murdoch ran a bunch of scare campaigns about how labor were to tax everyone's pension etc and ended up winning.

No it wasn't all down to murdoch and sky news but it certainly helped and when elections win or fail on a samll percentage, just like a non-binding vote to stay or leave the EU that is maybe all you need.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The printed press is becoming less and less influential.  Facebook and twitter paid content is where it really is having impact on public opinion.  The Average Joe or Josephine seems less interested in challenging stuff they see on FB for validity for some reason.  FB (god knows why) seems to be a trusted platform.

Which of course has the problem that you only see 1. What you have an interest in and 2. What your friends/those you follow have an interest in.  This is a dangerous position for the media in future and for society as a whole.  We've seen it as DRFC fans when the moaners shout loudest at the board it can quickly be seen as the truth.  Social media can be very very dangerous.

[wing commander]

The printed press is becoming less and less influential.  Facebook and twitter paid content is where it really is having impact on public opinion.  The Average Joe or Josephine seems less interested in challenging stuff they see on FB for validity for some reason.  FB (god knows why) seems to be a trusted platform.

   That's a interesting point Rob..I'm a Donny lad born in Skellow and historically I'm a Tory voter,although I'm no longer officially a Conservative member..However as you can imagine a good 80% of my Facebook friends are Labour through and through...Every single day on my timeline there is about 5 posts,mainly meme's (which are dangerous things whatever your political persuasion) which are anti Boris/Tory..On top of that there are a equal amount of posts/memes on leave/remain..It's getting pretty flooded tbh...

   However I quite enjoy Politics and make my own choices but I appreciate these days most people aren't as prepared to look to deeply and make their choices either way on misleading headlines and meme's

[SydneyRover]

And right on queue direct from the Murdoch mouthpiece:

om Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)

Sources in No10 now hitting back at the Scottish judges, suggesting they are politically biased: "We note that last week the High Court in London did not rule that prorogation was unlawful. The legal activists choose the Scottish courts for a reason".
September 11, 2019

Apologies if you have all seen this before I've been in a bit of a wifi blackhole.

Added: and it's always more difficult to disprove something once it's out there.

In the recent Australian Federal election our proud new far right PM vertually shut parliament down before the polls, didn't schedule anything because his team had been 0n the nose for the last 3 years. Enter the campaign supported by Murdoch ran a bunch of scare campaigns about how labor were to tax everyone's pension etc and ended up winning.

No it wasn't all down to murdoch and sky news but it certainly helped and when elections win or fail on a samll percentage, just like a non-binding vote to stay or leave the EU that is maybe all you need.
Modify message
« Last Edit: Today at 12:43:24 PM by SydneyRover »

[BillyStubbsTears]

The printed press is becoming less and less influential.  Facebook and twitter paid content is where it really is having impact on public opinion.  The Average Joe or Josephine seems less interested in challenging stuff they see on FB for validity for some reason.  FB (god knows why) seems to be a trusted platform.

Which of course has the problem that you only see 1. What you have an interest in and 2. What your friends/those you follow have an interest in.  This is a dangerous position for the media in future and for society as a whole.  We've seen it as DRFC fans when the moaners shout loudest at the board it can quickly be seen as the truth.  Social media can be very very dangerous.

It's FAR worse than that.

The Right, aided and abetted by Russia, have weaponised FB feeds to pour lies directly at people who they've identified as being susceptible to believing lies.

Like I say, the biggest issue of our time. Do we actually care about the truth?

[wing commander]

   The thing with facebook is your own timeline is your own bubble...I can honestly say that I haven't had a single suggested/sponsored Political post from anybody regardless of whether it's Left/Right..That gives me the impression that it doesn't happen because I cant see them..

   That doesn't mean to say that it doesn't happen,just that facebooks algorithms have decided I'm not the targeted audience..

[SydneyRover]

I agree the internet is making media worse, we don't even know what those that don't bother to fact check are being told and swallowing

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The printed press is becoming less and less influential.  Facebook and twitter paid content is where it really is having impact on public opinion.  The Average Joe or Josephine seems less interested in challenging stuff they see on FB for validity for some reason.  FB (god knows why) seems to be a trusted platform.

Which of course has the problem that you only see 1. What you have an interest in and 2. What your friends/those you follow have an interest in.  This is a dangerous position for the media in future and for society as a whole.  We've seen it as DRFC fans when the moaners shout loudest at the board it can quickly be seen as the truth.  Social media can be very very dangerous.

It's FAR worse than that.

The Right, aided and abetted by Russia, have weaponised FB feeds to pour lies directly at people who they've identified as being susceptible to believing lies.

Like I say, the biggest issue of our time. Do we actually care about the truth?

No the left would never do such a thing.....

One of the things that was said in the findings of use in the last GE was how Labour used social media much more strongly, much more targeted and how there was also an amount of automation.

I don't know what the answer to this is, at some point there needs to be a proper conversation about how news works, perhaps some sort of proper accreditation.  The so called "fake news" is a real thing, we know Trump used it well to frame his narrative, we also know he uses it when it suits.  However it has to be a genuine concern.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

But it's a fact that the Left wasn't using illegal means to profile particular groups, then target them with specific lies designed to provoke them into voting

That is PRECISELY what Cummings did in 2016, and what he'll be doing in the upcoming election if he can get away with it.

[albie]

There is a tendency to take polls at face value, and assume they are a genuine attempt to measure the standing of public opinion.

There is an alternative view of how polling can be used as a tool;
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

Longish read, and sometimes complicated....but so is life!

[albie]

BFYP

But it's a fact that the Left wasn't using illegal means to profile particular groups, then target them with specific lies designed to provoke them into voting

That is PRECISELY what Cummings did in 2016, and what he'll be doing in the upcoming election if he can get away with it.

Demonic Cummings is trying to extend the reach of the Facecrook data manipulation by harvesting official UK Gov sites in the same way;
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-voter-data

Be careful out there, fellas!