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Getting close now lads and lasses. Been saying for weeks that 84 points will be ample to take 2nd place and that's looking more likely by the week. To top 84 points:Bournemouth must win all 4 gamesBrentford must lose no more than 3 points from 18Sheff Utd must lose no more than 5 points from 21. And of course Sheff Utd and Brentford must still play each other. Three wins from 5 should do the job. Put in another 3 performances like today's and that'll be job done.But for the more pessimistic, here's a thought. 4 more wins would give us 87 points. No two other sides could top 87 points. Sheff Utd could get 90. Brentford could get 88. But both of them can't pick up three points when they play each other. The worst case scenario for us is Brentford winning every remaining game and Sheff Utd winning every one apart from the Brentford game. Then Brentford would have 88 points and Sheff Utd 87. And if anyone seriously thinks that series of results is going to happen, get down the bookies because you'd make a hundred thousand quid for a pound stake. In fact, I expect both of those teams to drop points in Saturday - Sheff Utd at Walsall and Brentford at Coventry.
CroftyI agree that it's difficult for us to be promoted on the day of the Crewe game, but it's maybe not quite as difficult as you imagine. The number of points our competitors have to drop is actually quite small.Consider the following:Assume we win our next three matches (Tranmere (H), Carlisle(H) and Crewe (A)). All eminently do-able.Then assume Brentford draw two of their next 3 (Coventry(A), Crewe(A) Portsmouth (H)). Probably more likely than not given Brentford's very poor away record.Assume Sheff Utd get two draws and a win from their next 3 (Walsall (A), Crawley(H), Swindon(H)). Perfectly possible.Assume Bournemouth fail to win one of their next 2 (NottsC (H), Shrewsbury(A)). Perhaps unlikely, but as I keep saying, they WILL drop some points before the end of the season.In that situation, we would have 84 points. The maximum that Bournemouth could get would be 82. The maximum that Swindon could get (if they had won every match) would be 83, so forget them. Sheff Utd could get 86 and Brentford 84. BUT, they still have to play each other. So, if Brentford were to win that match and keep on track to get 84 points, the maximum the Blades could get would be 83 and so only Brentford could catch us. If the Blades were to win or draw that match, Brentford could then no longer catch us, and only the Blades could top us. Ergo, we would be promoted.So there you go.We win the next two.Blades drop a point away at Walsall or at home to Crawley.Brentford drop a point at Coventry or at Crewe.Bournemouth drop a point at home to NottsC (who have a decent away record)We then go into the Crewe match knowing that if we win, the Blades don't beat Swindon and Brentford don;t beat Portsmouth, we are up.
Nasty last month for the Alex
Sheff U cant get 11 points. They could get 10 or 12, but not 11