What do we want tonight?

[Chris Black come back]

Charlton vs Dingles tonight.

I think a draw is probably best result.

Hard to decide what is best result after that. A Dingle win keeps Charlton in the mix, but gives a grain of hope to Dingles then. Or do we just extinguish all Dingle hope?

[IDM]

If we are pessimistic about our own performances, then we want to get 3 clubs beneath us with as big a points difference as possible.  If Charlton win, then Barnsley and Yeovil will be 7 points behind with 4 to play.  If Barnsley win they are only 4 behind.

A draw is not a disaster for us.

I think we can forget about Charlton, they have 2 games in hand and are 2 points behind us, but don't forget Blackpool are really struggling too.

For me, a Charlton win tonight, strange as it seems as they will overtake us, is perhaps the best result?

(doesn't mean I am a pessimist, I think we can win at least one of our remaining fixtures)

[roversam]

Anything but a Charlton win for me.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Draw with neither side gaining much confidence from it.

[PDX_Rover]

Draw with 4 men off for each side.

[The Red Baron]

A 0-0 would probably be the best result, but I'm not too fussed on this one. I can't see Barnsley overtaking us and Charlton have so many games in hand (and an easy run-in) that I think they'll be well clear of danger by the final weekend.

Last place is between us, Millwall and Blackpool.

[River Don]

It's probably coming down to us, Millwall and Blackpool.

A Charlton win will be good for me, keep Barnsley out of the mix.

[the vicar]

for me it is Blackpool for the drop without doubt

[andysly]

I'm past caring about others, we need to win a game or at least come away from Millwall without losing.
Realistically for us to go down we had to at least lose 6 out of 7 games, ok we've lost 3 of them already but we are not that bad a side to have that sort of run.
 

[GazLaz]

There is a very good chance we well not pick up another point this season, people need to realise that. What other teams do matters massively. We need to keep as many teams below us as possible. A Charlton win would be bad news, I know they have picked up points recently but having 5 teams bellow us is much better than 4. Draw would be ideal.

[IDM]

I disagree GazLaz - having 5 teams below us with a closer points difference is worse (oddly as it sounds) than having 4 below us with (at least 2) a bigger gap.  Of course, I want us to finish as high as we can and with as many points as we can get, but we only NEED 3 teams to finish below us, not 5.

Of course, we could lose every game, but I don't think we will.

[andysly]

If we lose our last 7 games we deserve to go down. We won't do that, there's points to be had starting Friday.
I'm glad the players have got the stomach for a scrap.

[drfc1951]

Trouble is if Charlton are clear of the drop going into the last game,they are away at Blackpool with nothing to play for.

[Wild Rover]

  :clapping:Don't worry, the bottom 3 will not win one game between them to season end.

[Dare to dream!]

Draw or Charlton win. Charlton will get out of it regardless, we don't want Barnsley to get some hope momentum.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is a very good chance we well not pick up another point this season, people need to realise that. What other teams do matters massively. We need to keep as many teams below us as possible. A Charlton win would be bad news, I know they have picked up points recently but having 5 teams bellow us is much better than 4. Draw would be ideal.

Not sure is say there is a "very good" chance of us not picking up another point. There's a chance, but not a very strong one.

Consider. That would mean all four opponents beating us. Let's assume some odds.

Leicester 1/5
Derby 4/6
Reading Eve
Millwall Eve

The odds on that string of results all coming in are about 7/1. So there's about a 12% chance that we won't pick up another point.

You can argue the toss on the precise odds for each match but they'll be summat like those.

[pib]

I'm no expert on betting odds, but can I ask why Reading is evens?

Their away record is fourth best in the division, and on the current form guide, they are averaging around 2 points per game away from home.*

You could add in (whether you think it significant or not) that we never seem to beat Reading as well.

I know our home record is quite good overall (but still only 15th best in the division*), and we have something of a propensity to beating strong teams at home this season when you least expect it, but I'm not sure that makes us likely (or "evens") to beat them either. They have a strong squad with a fair amount of depth too, despite their reported injury problems.

*All statistics in this post are taken from football365.com Championship stats page. Because evidence is our friend.

[andysly]

Put those odds with our 3 defeats just gone and I'm thinking you're looking around the 50/1 mark minimum.

[GazLaz]

If we lose to Derby and Millwall Reading have to be odds on to beat us. They will be more like 4/6. That's a 10% difference. Think that makes it about 11/2. Our chances are diminishing all the time

Would you like to lay me 7 £50's BST? :-)

I think Reading are the most over rated side in the league and that's our best chance of winning.

[RedArmy]

Barnsley win for me, Keeps Charlton deep in trouble and even if Barnsley win still dont think they will have enough to stay up.

[i_ateallthepies]

Barnsley win for me too.  Leaves Charlton two points behind us with a game in hand.  The 2 points is the better position to hold.

[Filo]

Charlton 0 Barnsley 1 Mvoto

[BillyStubbsTears]

If we lose to Derby and Millwall Reading have to be odds on to beat us. They will be more like 4/6. That's a 10% difference. Think that makes it about 11/2. Our chances are diminishing all the time

Would you like to lay me 7 £50's BST? :-)

I think Reading are the most over rated side in the league and that's our best chance of winning.

Just checked Derby's price. The average is 5/6, so I over estimated their strength according to the bookies.

Derby are a better side than Reading
Derby are in better form than Reading
Derby have a better away record than Reading.

The chances of Reading being as short as 4/6 against us are very small. But even if they were (and Derby were 4/6, which they aren't) it would change my original calculation from 7/1 to 17/3. Or from a 12.5% chance to a 17.6% chance.

[eastender]

Barnsley win for me too.  Leaves them two points behind us with a game in hand.  The 2 points is the better position to hold.

Are you sure , i make them still 4pts behind but on level games if they win tonight.

[BillyStubbsTears]

He's talking about Charlton

[eastender]

He's talking about Charlton

Ah...

[i_ateallthepies]

Sorry eastender.  I knew what I meant.

Cheers BST.

[Filo]

Charlton 0 Barnsley 2 Kennedy

[i_ateallthepies]

Dingles 2-0 up.... good for me.  Charlton playing again Friday and again Monday, should take its toll on them.
Important result for us this.

[Dare to dream!]

Worst outcome IMO