Looking grim for Labour

[Glyn_Wigley]

I prefer Sammy's original description of me as an oak. Oaks are dominant in many north temperate forests. I like to think I dominate all the lefties on this forum.

Oaks also have very small acorns.

[Dagenham Rover]

and are sometimes hollow!

[IC1967]

An acorn is the fruit of the oak. I would like to think I have a lot of fruit out there. I just need to nurture it a bit longer and soon the forum will be awash with right wingers and you left wingers will be in the minority.

[Glyn_Wigley]

If it comforts you, keep on thinking that and let the rest of us carry on living in the real world.

[IC1967]

Latest Yougov poll shows Labour and the Tories on 32%. UKIP are now on a magnificent 18%. I think it's safe to say that Labours lead over the last few years has now totally evaporated. The future is looking bleak.

Get in.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. The leftie leaning Mirror has Labour on 30% and the Tories on 32%. But the big news is that UKIP are on a magnificent 23%!

Get in.

 http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Daily-Mirror-General-Election-Poll-I.pdf

[Yargo]

The right wing Sky news have this from their latest polling,thought you was the king of copy and paste mick,you missed this opportunity for some reason
Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak  2h hours ago
Update - new @SkyNews House of Commons projection: Lab 282 seats, Con 270, LD 20, SNP 53, Plaid Cymru 3, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 19 #GE2015

[IC1967]

The right wing Sky news have this from their latest polling,thought you was the king of copy and paste mick,you missed this opportunity for some reason
Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak  2h hours ago
Update - new @SkyNews House of Commons projection: Lab 282 seats, Con 270, LD 20, SNP 53, Plaid Cymru 3, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 19 #GE2015

I've not looked at it but my first impression is that Labour may be showing as having slightly more seats but that's because our voting system is extremely unfair. It is a fact that Labour gets a lot more seats than the Tories with the same percentage of the vote. UKIP on 23% wouldn't get that many seats for the same reason. However, as Greece has shown, a small party can very quickly become the largest party in just a few years. In the 2010 election they only got 3% of the vote. So to now to be on 23% is a remarkable achievement.

They may not gain many seats this time around but watch out when the 2020 election comes around. Whoever wins this time around is not going to be popular at the end of their term in office. The EU will be well on the way to unraveling and UKIP will be well positioned to become the government.

Get in.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Just like the SDP was supposed to...oh wait...

[IC1967]

Just like the SDP was supposed to...oh wait...

I don't think the SDP ever got anywhere near 23% of the vote. They soon realised they were doomed to failure so went all in with the Liberals.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The Alliance got 25% of the vote in 1983.

And UKIP haven't got anywhere near 23% of a general election vote share yet...you're counting your chickens a bit.

[Glyn_Wigley]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker

[IC1967]

The Alliance got 25% of the vote in 1983.

And UKIP haven't got anywhere near 23% of a general election vote share yet...you're counting your chickens a bit.

Excuse me. UKIP got 23% in the Mirror poll. Also you can't compare the SDP's vote share as most of that was Liberal voters. It's a fact that at 23%, UKIP have increased their share of the vote ten fold since the 2005 election. That's what I call excellent progress.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

Leave it mate. You can't reason with boneheaded ignorance.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The Alliance got 25% of the vote in 1983.

And UKIP haven't got anywhere near 23% of a general election vote share yet...you're counting your chickens a bit.

Excuse me. UKIP got 23% in the Mirror poll. Also you can't compare the SDP's vote share as most of that was Liberal voters. It's a fact that at 23%, UKIP have increased their share of the vote ten fold since the 2005 election. That's what I call excellent progress.

Read what other people have written, eh?

Also, last time you were parading opinion polls you were extolling the yougov poll as the one to take notice of. What are they saying about UKIP now?

[IC1967]

Look, I was just trying to be magnanimous by picking the most recent poll from the most read paper on this forum. I can't win!

[Iberian Red]

I prefer Sammy's original description of me as an oak. Oaks are dominant in many north temperate forests. I like to think I dominate all the lefties on this forum.

I think the original version read "cock", not oak.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Look, I was just trying to be magnanimous by picking the most recent poll from the most read paper on this forum. I can't win!

If you're going for forum popularity I would imagine that everybody on this forum watches the BBC, so what say we go with their poll of polls from here on to avoid any accusations of cherrypicking?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The Alliance got 25% of the vote in 1983.

And UKIP haven't got anywhere near 23% of a general election vote share yet...you're counting your chickens a bit.

Excuse me. UKIP got 23% in the Mirror poll. Also you can't compare the SDP's vote share as most of that was Liberal voters. It's a fact that at 23%, UKIP have increased their share of the vote ten fold since the 2005 election. That's what I call excellent progress.

Read what other people have written, eh?

Also, last time you were parading opinion polls you were extolling the yougov poll as the one to take notice of. What are they saying about UKIP now?

Interesting that like other polls they show a Tory lead - I'm still not believing that.  But if the good economic news keeps coming then the Tories have some chance...  These debates etc will be a big point, but this election will be a big class war, a bit like in other countries.

[River Don]

I don't think the Tories can rely on good economic news. There is some good news but there is still a lot wrong with the economy. Even if everything were to come right from here on in, there isn't enough time before the election for a feel good factor to kick in.

That's if everything comes right. UK growth has slowed for the last couple of quarters.

[Yargo]

The right wing Sky news have this from their latest polling,thought you was the king of copy and paste mick,you missed this opportunity for some reason
Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak  2h hours ago
Update - new @SkyNews House of Commons projection: Lab 282 seats, Con 270, LD 20, SNP 53, Plaid Cymru 3, UKIP 2, Green 1, Others 19 #GE2015

I've not looked at it but my first impression is that Labour may be showing as having slightly more seats but that's because our voting system is extremely unfair. It is a fact that Labour gets a lot more seats than the Tories with the same percentage of the vote. UKIP on 23% wouldn't get that many seats for the same reason. However, as Greece has shown, a small party can very quickly become the largest party in just a few years. In the 2010 election they only got 3% of the vote. So to now to be on 23% is a remarkable achievement.

They may not gain many seats this time around but watch out when the 2020 election comes around. Whoever wins this time around is not going to be popular at the end of their term in office. The EU will be well on the way to unraveling and UKIP will be well positioned to become the government.

Get in.

UKIP will be hoping the Conservatives win in May,a defeat will see them ditch Cameron and swing massively to the right,stealing all of UKIP's ground,the presence of UKIP makes a Labour victory more likely,well done Nige

[IC1967]

Look, I was just trying to be magnanimous by picking the most recent poll from the most read paper on this forum. I can't win!

If you're going for forum popularity I would imagine that everybody on this forum watches the BBC, so what say we go with their poll of polls from here on to avoid any accusations of cherrypicking?

The problem with the BBC is that it's usually nearly a week behind what's happening. The latest polls show a 1 point Tory lead, Comres 31/30 and Yougov 34/33.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I thought you placed IPSOS-MORI above all other polling companies, d**khead?

[River Don]

Look at that poll tracker Glyn posted, I can't see anything to suggest things won't stay roughly the same right up until Election Day.

Without anything unexpected cropping up the two biggest factors on the chances of seeing a real recovery are the drop in oil prices and QE in the EU. We can't be sure how either of those things will play out and the UK government isn't responsible for either of them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just for the record, in case anyone thinks Mick gives remotely balanced posts on this subject, he has a record as long as you arm of only ever quoting data that supports why he wants to believe. He's like a five year old who shuts out the rest of the world when it tells him it's time to stop playing and go to bed.

Here's the actual state of opinion polls. Over the past two weeks, there have been 21 national polls.

In 11 of those, Labour were ahead by between 1-5%
In 5, Lab and Con were level
In 5, Con were ahead by 1-2%

There is no indication that anything has changed over the past 2 months. The balance of probability is that Labour are still ahead by 1-1.5%.

Our resident idiot just pops up every time random variations in the polls tell him a story he wants to hear.

He was thrapping off in December when 2 consecutive Ipsos-Mori polls have the Tories a 3% lead. He ignored the fact that these were entirely consistent, within the standard margin of error, of the average of all the other polls saying that Labour was 1-2% ahead. He insisted that Ipsos were the gold standard for polling and that their results showed that the Tories were consistently 3% ahead.

Funny that he said nothing when Ipsos published a poll earlier this month showing that Labour were 1% ahead.

It's this aspect of Mick's personality disorder that I utterly despise. This absolute inability to even recognise data that challenges his worldview. That is why Bob G was tearing his hair out over Mick's education. Had he gone further (and he's clearly a clever bloke) he would have had this infantile side of his personality bashed out of him. It's what higher education does. It says, "We don't accept prejudice and pre-judged decisions. We teach to to weigh up all the information and make informed  decisions. That is a key part of the growing up process. And if you can't engage with that, you will forever be an intellectual child."

[IC1967]

Just for the record, in case anyone thinks Mick gives remotely balanced posts on this subject, he has a record as long as you arm of only ever quoting data that supports why he wants to believe. He's like a five year old who shuts out the rest of the world when it tells him it's time to stop playing and go to bed.

Here's the actual state of opinion polls. Over the past two weeks, there have been 21 national polls.

In 11 of those, Labour were ahead by between 1-5%
In 5, Lab and Con were level
In 5, Con were ahead by 1-2%

There is no indication that anything has changed over the past 2 months. The balance of probability is that Labour are still ahead by 1-1.5%.

Our resident idiot just pops up every time random variations in the polls tell him a story he wants to hear.

He was thrapping off in December when 2 consecutive Ipsos-Mori polls have the Tories a 3% lead. He ignored the fact that these were entirely consistent, within the standard margin of error, of the average of all the other polls saying that Labour was 1-2% ahead. He insisted that Ipsos were the gold standard for polling and that their results showed that the Tories were consistently 3% ahead.

Funny that he said nothing when Ipsos published a poll earlier this month showing that Labour were 1% ahead.

It's this aspect of Mick's personality disorder that I utterly despise. This absolute inability to even recognise data that challenges his worldview. That is why Bob G was tearing his hair out over Mick's education. Had he gone further (and he's clearly a clever bloke) he would have had this infantile side of his personality bashed out of him. It's what higher education does. It says, "We don't accept prejudice and pre-judged decisions. We teach to to weigh up all the information and make informed  decisions. That is a key part of the growing up process. And if you can't engage with that, you will forever be an intellectual child."

Look, you don't know what level of education I have undergone. Modesty prevents me from declaring it because it is only one aspect that makes up my personality. It really makes my piss boil that some of you that have had a university level education think your point of view is more valid than someone who hasn't. It obviously doesn't cross silly Billy's mind that the way universities train you to think is just one way of thinking amongst the many. You could almost think of it as brainwashing.

Silly Billy and BobG have obviously been affected this way. I pride myself on having the ability to take in information from a wide variety of sources and to be able to make sense of it without having to rely on the way universities tell you how you should use your thought processes. Banging on about high level education is intellectual snobbery of the worst kind and I'll have no truck with it.

 I repeat what I said to other users of the forum previously. Don't let silly Billy and BobG stifle your participation in debates on this forum. No matter what your level of education you have valid points to make.

Now, to the opinion polls. I prefer to look at the latest opinion polls rather than out of date ones. The out of date ones are useful in looking at long term trends. These show that Labour has steadily been losing support over the last couple of years. The Tories support (despite UKIP) has been pretty constant.

So to the latest 5 polls. Here are the results:

              Conservatives      Labour

Populus         34                   35
Ashcroft        32                   32
Survation      31                   30
Comres         31                   30
Yougov         34                   33

So looking at these most current polls, it shows the Tories are ahead by 1% in 3 of them, level in 1 and behind in only 1. Now correct me if I'm wrong but that gives the lie to silly Billy claiming Labour are 1-1.5% ahead. Basic maths shows that the Tories are actually on average 0.4% ahead of Labour. Now given the long term trend of Labour losing support, for them to be behind at this stage of the electoral cycle is devastating news for them.

[bpoolrover]

I'm undecided who to vote 4 but if there is any chance the snp could be any part of a government it would make my mind up,I'm staggered that if true anyone in England could vote labour

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm undecided who to vote 4 but if there is any chance the snp could be any part of a government it would make my mind up,I'm staggered that if true anyone in England could vote labour

I take it you wouldn't vote Conservative either if there's a chance they would need to be propped up by the DUP?

[bpoolrover]

Not enough to make any difference thou,do u think it's right that a party that wants nothing to do with England,could have a major say? If it comes to labour needing the snp to get bills thru parliament the only people to gain will be the Scottish

[Glyn_Wigley]

The DUP don't care about England either, that's not their remit, so they shouldn't have any say in running England either then. It's the same principle, just a different colour of stripe.