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I have to say that the lack of overall movement in the polls points in one direction. Basically the same one before a shot was fired in the campaign. There will be a hung parliament and Labour will be the largest party.I have to say though that unless the eventual arithmetic allows for a deal between Labour and the Lib Dems it is unlikely to end well. The Nationalists will, I think, provide Labour with dangerous allies. As for the Tories, I think they have run a very poor campaign. You might argue that they have some unpromising material to work with in policy terms. However I think the big question that will be asked in the inevitable inquest is why they failed to cut some sort of deal with UKIP.
The tory campaign should focus on the economy and how they're better equipped to deal with that over Labour - an argument they could win easily, but they haven't done that, which is a shame really.
Quote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 23, 2015, 08:56:35 amThe tory campaign should focus on the economy and how they're better equipped to deal with that over Labour - an argument they could win easily, but they haven't done that, which is a shame really.Not after achieving sod all in the last five years they won't.
BFYPThe fact that it's generally accepted that the Tories have done a grand job of running the economy shows what a good politician Osborne is. He has dominated the political debate and bent it to his will by simply repeating the mantra that he has managed the economy well. Unfortunately, he is a shocking economist. The fact is that in May 2010, he inherited an economy that was starting to recover from a horrific recession. He then implemented policies which choked off that recovery. The FACT is that we have actually experienced the worst recovery from recession since the South Sea Bubble in the 1700s. The OBR reckon that, directly due to Osborne's policy in 2010-12, we have lost, permanently something like £1500 of economic output for every single person in the country. Other economists argue that the number is more likely to be 2-3 times bigger than this. And what was the benefit of that? We massively missed his aim of reducing the deficit anyway. An utterly catastrophic period of economic management. It beggars belief that ANYONE can look at this graph, recall that Month 27 was the last General Election and call the Tory economic policy a success. But that's politics. AND the growth that we HAVE had over the past 2 years has been exactly matched by an increasing workforce. For the first time ON RECORD, we are not growing the economy faster that the workforce is growing. Productivity has followed and almost perfectly stable growth path for at least 100 years. Until the last 5 years, when, unprecedentedly, it has stopped growing. And THAT is the terrifying thing. If productivity doesn't improve we are unarguably set for a poorer future. It is THE most important issue for politicians over the next decade. Have you heard anyone mention it?
Wing CoI run a small business. I want Labour back in.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on April 23, 2015, 09:35:48 amQuote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 23, 2015, 08:56:35 amThe tory campaign should focus on the economy and how they're better equipped to deal with that over Labour - an argument they could win easily, but they haven't done that, which is a shame really.Not after achieving sod all in the last five years they won't.Really? Sustained, steady growth, defecit lower (only just granted), wages now increasing above inflation, taxes lower for all, unemployment down, more people employed than ever before....They are all positives. It's far from perfect but it is not a bad job at all...
Here's the IFS analysis - as ever Labour will lead to higher spending and debt, why the Tories aren't pushing this as number one point I do not know
BFYPTwo reasons I want Labour back in. 1) Over the past 50 years, there have been two catastrophic, ideologically-driven economic experiments. Those caused major lasting damage to the economy. They were both committed by Tory Govts. Howe in 1981 and Osborne in 2010. In both cases, the Tory Chancellor went against straightforward basic economic theory and in both cases they drove us into serious and long lasting loss of economic performance. No Labour Govt has EVER done that. They HAVE been caught up in the inevitable collapses that bedevil the Capitalist system. All countries and all Govts do. But that is very different from choosing to hobble your economy because you ideologically disagree with discretionary, expansionary Govt spending. That's deciding to reduce your performance for ideological reasons. So there's reason number 1. I believe that we'd have a healthier economy if we had a Govt that is prepared to follow sensible economics, not the economics of Austerity. So that would benefit my company. 2) I believe in a strong public sphere. I believe that there are many things that are better when funded centrally by us all, collectively, from taxes. I would go much further than Labour. I believe that health, education, transport and pensions are fundamentally ill-suited to private enterprise. Either because they are natural monopolies (look at train ticket prices from Doncaster to Bristol, where there is no competition) or because the market argument is predicated on the assumption that the consumer has all the information it requires to make an informed choice as a consumer (you reckon that as a 20 year old, you can choose a pension fund that will perform well over the next 50 years? No way. You can't. You guess and you gamble your future prosperity on nothing more than a hunch.)So there you go. Hard-headed decisions why I really, really don't want another Tory Govt. It's not a gut reaction. It is a decision made from a combination of my philosophical outlook and my assessment of the sort of country I want to live in.
Quote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 23, 2015, 09:42:01 amQuote from: Glyn_Wigley on April 23, 2015, 09:35:48 amQuote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 23, 2015, 08:56:35 amThe tory campaign should focus on the economy and how they're better equipped to deal with that over Labour - an argument they could win easily, but they haven't done that, which is a shame really.Not after achieving sod all in the last five years they won't.Really? Sustained, steady growth, defecit lower (only just granted), wages now increasing above inflation, taxes lower for all, unemployment down, more people employed than ever before...."Sustained, steady growth"You mean exactly like they inherited five years ago? Erm..no...they let the economy shrunk in those five years and it's only now growing back to what it should have been."defecit lower (only just granted)"Remind me, what exactly did that safe pair of hands the Tories promise us about where we'd be regarding this five years ago..?"wages now increasing above inflation"Erm...who put them below inflation in the first place..?"taxes lower for all"What do you say to those who don't pay income tax but had to cope with VAT increases? Are they included in your "all"?"unemployment down, more people employed than ever before"These I will concede. However, on the whole the current government have achieved virtually nothing that they said they would. It comes to something when instead of a situation where a government would normally be crowing about their economic achievements and the opposition trying to smear them, the situation is the absolute reverse - Labour are ones pushing the economy and all the Tories do is continually try to smear Labour and the SNP. When asked about the economy, all a Tory will say is 'our record speaks for itself' (a non-answer of the weakest kind)...instead of seizing such a golden opportunity and trumpeting what a success they've made of it! Even the Libdems don't seem to have anything much to say about it. That says everything.Glyn a few points on your comments;Wages - Labour saw drops in their last spell and below inflation rises for the last 2 years with the exception of one period - the Tories inherited that.Growth - Done pretty well after the initial period where it was rocky, but in comparison to Europe etc pretty well and the IMF even supports the process undertaken now after some scepticsm.They are all positives. It's far from perfect but it is not a bad job at all...
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on April 23, 2015, 09:35:48 amQuote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 23, 2015, 08:56:35 amThe tory campaign should focus on the economy and how they're better equipped to deal with that over Labour - an argument they could win easily, but they haven't done that, which is a shame really.Not after achieving sod all in the last five years they won't.Really? Sustained, steady growth, defecit lower (only just granted), wages now increasing above inflation, taxes lower for all, unemployment down, more people employed than ever before...."Sustained, steady growth"You mean exactly like they inherited five years ago? Erm..no...they let the economy shrunk in those five years and it's only now growing back to what it should have been."defecit lower (only just granted)"Remind me, what exactly did that safe pair of hands the Tories promise us about where we'd be regarding this five years ago..?"wages now increasing above inflation"Erm...who put them below inflation in the first place..?"taxes lower for all"What do you say to those who don't pay income tax but had to cope with VAT increases? Are they included in your "all"?"unemployment down, more people employed than ever before"These I will concede. However, on the whole the current government have achieved virtually nothing that they said they would. It comes to something when instead of a situation where a government would normally be crowing about their economic achievements and the opposition trying to smear them, the situation is the absolute reverse - Labour are ones pushing the economy and all the Tories do is continually try to smear Labour and the SNP. When asked about the economy, all a Tory will say is 'our record speaks for itself' (a non-answer of the weakest kind)...instead of seizing such a golden opportunity and trumpeting what a success they've made of it! Even the Libdems don't seem to have anything much to say about it. That says everything.
bst.... I know mate and I respect your opinion...But reality is that the vast majority of business in this country do not want Labour back in wether it be big or small and you will be hard pressed to argue that point ..I believe it would be a disaster for this Country..Personally I think the torys have done a admirable job of putting this country into the economic position its in..I wont forget that treasury letter that said "sorry theres no money left" left for the tory incumbent by his Labour counterpart...The last two years I have given 3 and 5% rises to my 28 staff...It's my firm belief if Labour get in they will be back to 1% again as they borrow and borrow... In truth one of my biggest issues is that in there last term..Labour made financial descisions that had most economists scratching there head with the incompetence of it all..The gold one I mentioned above which if the common man knew how much that crazy descision cost would be aghast is just one example...And with Balls and Milliband the faces haven't changed nor has the brain...If labour do get a coalition with there friends from across the border who seem destined to want to rule us, The very next day you watch how the footsie100 and Aim markets react and I bet you a pre match steak dinner it wont be positive..
Cameron looks like the old boxing champion who has taken one too many hits, and will be glad to retire, it's only in the last few days he has put any effort in, it's as though he has had a b..locking.He seems resigned to his fate of losing, as though he already knows that is beyond him to get back in.
Has anyone mentioned Labour's PFI's debts yet....?It is estimated that we (the taxpayers) will end up paying five times over for building projects funded by Private Finance Initiative deals commissioned by the last Labour government. Great deals arranged by Labour that we are still saddled with.New analysis shows that the 544 PFI projects agreed under Labour will cost every working family in the country an average of nearly £15,000 each, even though the original building cost stands at just over £3,000.
Oh dear. Ipsos MORI had Labour 2 points ahead last week. They've now got the Tories ahead by 5 points! 35% to 30%.