EU Referendum Result - predictions

[RoverAtUni]

My big worry is the fact that older people were more likely to vote out, which has influenced it massively. Voters who will not be here to see the ramifications of such a vote.

That being said, the wheel keeps turning...

[Bentley Bullet]

My big worry is the fact that older people were more likely to vote out, which has influenced it massively. Voters who will not be here to see the ramifications of such a vote.

That being said, the wheel keeps turning...

And why would they do that?

[wing commander]

My big worry is the fact that older people were more likely to vote out, which has influenced it massively. Voters who will not be here to see the ramifications of such a vote.

That being said, the wheel keeps turning...

And why would they do that?

    I don't agree with that at all..For me what this result has shown is that the North South divide is wider than ever...70-30 up here changed the vote...Northern people are fed up of our industries been closed and none of the benefits filtering up the M1,and the labour heartlands have rejected it to a overwhelming degree...Whether that's because Corbyn decided to not engage in the campaign at all or they can never bring themselves to vote with a tory I couldn't guess but that's whats made the difference,not the pensioners...

[Donnywolf]

My big worry is the fact that older people were more likely to vote out, which has influenced it massively. Voters who will not be here to see the ramifications of such a vote.

That being said, the wheel keeps turning...

And why would they do that?

I don't know but as one who is older - I have a Pension and a Bus Pass and a cheap Season Ticket - I can say (and have done on a different thread) I voted for NO when asked 41 years ago if we should join the "Common Market and yet yesterday in common with lots of other "older people" who I have talked with voted to "Remain"

I think we might regret going in the long term but will have to wait and see (hoping I live long enough !!!)

[Rover19]

My big worry is the fact that older people were more likely to vote out, which has influenced it massively. Voters who will not be here to see the ramifications of such a vote.

That being said, the wheel keeps turning...

I don't nessecarily buy this theory. Yes a lot of the older generation voted leave, but so did a fair proportion of middle aged and younger voters. Taking London aside, Leave comprehensively won in England, this despite a high turn out of first time voters. I believe that is more to do with socio - economic and cultural differences than it is age.

[Donnywolf]

My big worry is the fact that older people were more likely to vote out, which has influenced it massively. Voters who will not be here to see the ramifications of such a vote.

That being said, the wheel keeps turning...

And why would they do that?

    I don't agree with that at all..For me what this result has shown is that the North South divide is wider than ever...70-30 up here changed the vote...Northern people are fed up of our industries been closed and none of the benefits filtering up the M1,and the labour heartlands have rejected it to a overwhelming degree...Whether that's because Corbyn decided to not engage in the campaign at all or they can never bring themselves to vote with a tory I couldn't guess but that's whats made the difference,not the pensioners...

Probably (speaking as a lay person) the immigration issue was the overriding reason as I posted in my very first "opinion" on the Referendum

The working class areas have got fed up with what they see as their services like Doctors Schools etc getting over run by those from the EU who are allowed to enter quite freely and they wanted an end to it

Donny voted 69% OUT Basildon and Billericay etc similarly

On the other had well heeled insulated areas where the mass EU influx did not impact as much (as they probably could not afford to go there) voted to STAY and Brighton for instance voted 70% to remain

Simplistic but those that were affected like Boston voted OUT cos they are getting over run and they think the only way was out !

[bobjimwilly]

They think they are overrun now, wait to see what happens over the next 24 months as migrants will flood over before the EU divorce is finalised

[MrFrost]

They think they are overrun now, wait to see what happens over the next 24 months as migrants will flood over before the EU divorce is finalised

Free movement will stay in replace regardless

[Copps is Magic]

I thought the geographic spread of votes would be the most interesting but it turns out the age spread was actually more telling. The young wanted to remain, the old wanted out.

[Mike_F]

A net population increase of between 0.25 and 0.5% depending which stats you believe doesn't lead to services being stretched to breaking point. A huge cut in funding coupled with an ageing population with older people disproportionately more likely to require healthcare does that but hey-ho, let's blame Johnny Foreigner.

[drfc1951]

A net population increase of between 0.25 and 0.5% depending which stats you believe doesn't lead to services being stretched to breaking point. A huge cut in funding coupled with an ageing population with older people disproportionately more likely to require healthcare does that but hey-ho, let's blame Johnny Foreigner.

Hey-ho lets blame the pensioners then, that have worked hard all their lives and paid their taxes,and fought wars.

[RoverAtUni]

I never said all.

But the stats are there to be seen this morning (If they are true that is). Overwhelmingly the over 40's voted out. Allegedly that is mind. Where as 18-39 voted to remain. 

[The Red Baron]

TRB

I don't think you get how politics works. No one could survive a snub like that.

Well folks. You've made your beds. Welcome to a country in which Gove, Farage and Johnson are in charge.

Sweet f**king Jesus.

Sorry, should have caveated that to go immediately. He's staying on for 3 months. Corbyn might be gone before that.

[Filo]

It seems the remainers don't like democracy, lots of dummies being spit out throughout the Country

[Copps is Magic]

I was going to point out a geographical pattern that I didn't think the media had picked up on. People in or close to coastal areas have tended to vote leave compared to those who lived further inland who have voted more in favour of remain. Then I remembered that this probably feeds  in to the age differential, with more over 65s moving and retiring to coastal areas. So it just simply is probably one key part of the clear age gap in votes.

[Donnywolf]

They think they are overrun now, wait to see what happens over the next 24 months as migrants will flood over before the EU divorce is finalised

Free movement will stay in replace regardless

If you mean until we leave then I suppose that is true - but if the Leavers are to believed once we are out then an Australian style Points system will be adopted. That will still mean we need loads of Doctors Nurses and other vocations will be needed and those with the right "skill sets" will get in

.... and they are to be believed surely ?

[MrFrost]

It seems the remainers don't like democracy, lots of dummies being spit out throughout the Country

Funny, a lot of labour voters didn't like democracy last year.

[MrFrost]

They think they are overrun now, wait to see what happens over the next 24 months as migrants will flood over before the EU divorce is finalised

Free movement will stay in replace regardless

If you mean until we leave then I suppose that is true - but if the Leavers are to believed once we are out then an Australian style Points system will be adopted. That will still mean we need loads of Doctors Nurses and other vocations will be needed and those with the right "skill sets" will get in

.... and they are to be believed surely ?

If we want a decent trade deal, free movement will remain.

[Mike_F]

A net population increase of between 0.25 and 0.5% depending which stats you believe doesn't lead to services being stretched to breaking point. A huge cut in funding coupled with an ageing population with older people disproportionately more likely to require healthcare does that but hey-ho, let's blame Johnny Foreigner.

Hey-ho lets blame the pensioners then, that have worked hard all their lives and paid their taxes,and fought wars.

FFS... I'm not "blaming" pensioners for getting ill. I'm simply stating a fact that older people need more care. We've got more older people and less money going into care provision ergo services are stretched. Immigration (EU or otherwise) isn't to blame but the out campaign made a great play of making out that it is.

[MrFrost]

Motion of no confidence now against Corbyn

[BillyStubbsTears]

Motion of no confidence now against Corbyn

Good. He cannot survive this. His leadership over this issue has been disastrous. If he had come out with energy and enthusiasm for the EU, we'd be in a different world today. He is an utter calamity and he's as much to blame for this result as Cameron.

[idler]

A net population increase of between 0.25 and 0.5% depending which stats you believe doesn't lead to services being stretched to breaking point. A huge cut in funding coupled with an ageing population with older people disproportionately more likely to require healthcare does that but hey-ho, let's blame Johnny Foreigner.

Hey-ho lets blame the pensioners then, that have worked hard all their lives and paid their taxes,and fought wars.

FFS... I'm not "blaming" pensioners for getting ill. I'm simply stating a fact that older people need more care. We've got more older people and less money going into care provision ergo services are stretched. Immigration (EU or otherwise) isn't to blame but the out campaign made a great play of making out that it is.

I payed my taxes for over 50years and still do as a pensioner.
I voted leave because I voted in back in 1975.
The EU in it's present form is not what I and many others wanted.
We were unlikely to change policy from within so I voted leave.
I'm nearly 68 but hope to Live long enough to see my vote proved right in the long run.

[wing commander]

      The question is did he really want to stay in the EU?? I suspect he personally didn't yet had to tow the party line of remain..How else could you explain his total lack of effort in the campaign? He was non existent..There is a difference between failing to get your message across to the labour vote and not even trying to do so...The labour heartlands have had the biggest say in this result and he stood back and let them which makes him more to blame  than Cameron..Wether people didn't agree with Cameron at least he was out there making his case in what he believed in...I still don't know what Corbyn believes tbh..

[Mike_F]

A net population increase of between 0.25 and 0.5% depending which stats you believe doesn't lead to services being stretched to breaking point. A huge cut in funding coupled with an ageing population with older people disproportionately more likely to require healthcare does that but hey-ho, let's blame Johnny Foreigner.

Hey-ho lets blame the pensioners then, that have worked hard all their lives and paid their taxes,and fought wars.

FFS... I'm not "blaming" pensioners for getting ill. I'm simply stating a fact that older people need more care. We've got more older people and less money going into care provision ergo services are stretched. Immigration (EU or otherwise) isn't to blame but the out campaign made a great play of making out that it is.

I payed my taxes for over 50years and still do as a pensioner.
I voted leave because I voted in back in 1975.
The EU in it's present form is not what I and many others wanted.
We were unlikely to change policy from within so I voted leave.
I'm nearly 68 but hope to Live long enough to see my vote proved right in the long run.

Yep - I'm not having a dig at pensioners or any other section of society. I hope to make it to be a pensioner myself and for as long as possible!

Just stating that the stress on services is caused by demand outstripping supply which isn't coming form immigration.

Regardless, the point is moot as the "immigrants filling up our doctors' surgeries and hospitals" myth worked as one of the many facets of the leave campaign's points of propaganda.

[idler]

I didn't make my decision on purely an immigration issue but if you came to any of my local doctors' surgeries or Bradford Royal Infirmary A&E you might understand why some people do feel threatened by too many foreigners.
Many issues have built up in inner city areas in the UK and been disregarded. Rightly or wrongly a lot of voters took an action that made their voice heard after years of seemingly being ignored.
Only time will tell if their decision was right or wrong.

[Copps is Magic]

Idler, I do wonder living in a city like Bradford as you do, with a long and complex history of migration, how you make such a seemingly simple distinction between foreigner and native. Genuine question?

[Copps is Magic]

Also thinking openly here about the decision not to allow 16/17 year olds the right to vote in this referendum. I am trying to do some ghetto maths to see if it would have made a difference to the outcome. I'm getting the result it would have made it much much closer but not actually changed the outcome. Anyone know better?

[drfc1951]

Motion of no confidence now against Corbyn

Good. He cannot survive this. His leadership over this issue has been disastrous. If he had come out with energy and enthusiasm for the EU, we'd be in a different world today. He is an utter calamity and he's as much to blame for this result as Cameron.

I and many other labour voters would have voted out whoever the leader was.

[Mike_F]

Regarding Bradford as an example (and Batley where I work) it does seem that some (not all, Dave!) people have voted to leave the European Union in part to stop non EU migration which is, quite frankly, bonkers.

[idler]

Idler, I do wonder living in a city like Bradford as you do, with a long and complex history of migration, how you make such a seemingly simple distinction between foreigner and native. Genuine question?

Listening to waiting room conversations gives a good clue plus the number of Eastern European names now being called.
My wife was also a nurse for 25 years so we know plenty in the health service. My daughter has also been a teacher for some years so I also know plenty of people that work in education.
Each part of the country, indeed each part of a city will have it's own reasons for the way it voted.
Me I think that the EU is a swollen bureaucracy that we could never have reformed from the inside. Remaining member states may benefit from reforms that might have kept us in once we have gone.
I already commented that a friend's German son-in-law commented that they daren't have a referendum or a majority would want to leave.