EU Referendum Result - predictions

[The Red Baron]

Although I voted Leave a few weeks ago (by postal vote) I've been convinced we will just about vote to stay in. Nothing has really changed, though if you'd asked me last week I'd have made the margin a bit narrower.

My prediction:

REMAIN 53.4%
LEAVE 46.6%

But as someone said elsewhere, let's move on now.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Leave will not win but it's who I'm voting for.  Once the vote is done it's done.

Remain 51.7%
Leave 48.3%

COULD easily go the other way though, very easily.

[NickDRFC]

52.5% to remain.

[IDM]

Remain..

Not for any of the spin that both sides are putting on the debate, but for personal reasons.

[Muttley]

54/46 for Remain

I reckon turnout will be around 65% so as usual the CBA Party will be the majority.

[Donnywolf]

53 - 47 Stay

What worries and or annoys me though is that result will leave the losers the chance to carp on and on for Years to come and like the SNP finds ways to mention the "possibility" that they may need another Referendum if this happens or that happens the defeated Leavers will keep banging on about leaving as it was "so close"

However what happens if the Vote is exactly the opposite ... the ones who want to stay in cant do jack s*** can they ? We would be out and hardly likely to say hang on a minute while we push for another vote.

So one way the result seems to leave the door open for more and more pressure to have a vote and the other does not ... door shut ... eff off !

[Mike_F]

53 - 47 Stay

What worries and or annoys me though is that result will leave the losers the chance to carp on and on for Years to come and like the SNP finds ways to mention the "possibility" that they may need another Referendum if this happens or that happens the defeated Leavers will keep banging on about leaving as it was "so close"

However what happens if the Vote is exactly the opposite ... the ones who want to stay in cant do jack s*** can they ? We would be out and hardly likely to say hang on a minute while we push for another vote.

So one way the result seems to leave the door open for more and more pressure to have a vote and the other does not ... door shut ... eff off !

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on it too.

I'm voting remain and most of the way through expected to be on the end of a narrow defeat but I think "my lot" will just edge it now.

[DevilMayCry]

Being in the EU has some benefits. Romania wanted very much for a long time to be accepted in the EU for that benefits: to access some funds to invest in infrastructure, hospitals, schools etc (but that borrowed money will be returned, in time), free travel in other country in holidays (you don't have to wait for visa), some rights and laws that help people etc....In Romania is still very bad for the employees, the owners still have the impression that employees are slaves, small wages, no bank holidays to stay with your family (they don't give a sh*t about this).

My opinion is that the vote will be close, but your country will remain in the EU.

[Mike_F]

I hope you're right, DMC.

[DevilMayCry]

I hope you're right, DMC.

I hope that too. As I talked with Rob and Gav on facebook, next year (january or february, I hope) I want to come in Doncaster to work there. I hope this time I wouldn't be unlucky to get sick and stay in the hospital, like I was in Barnsley in 2014 . But until then I have to put aside money every month.

[Glyn_Wigley]

53 - 47 Stay

What worries and or annoys me though is that result will leave the losers the chance to carp on and on for Years to come and like the SNP finds ways to mention the "possibility" that they may need another Referendum if this happens or that happens the defeated Leavers will keep banging on about leaving as it was "so close"

However what happens if the Vote is exactly the opposite ... the ones who want to stay in cant do jack s*** can they ? We would be out and hardly likely to say hang on a minute while we push for another vote.

So one way the result seems to leave the door open for more and more pressure to have a vote and the other does not ... door shut ... eff off !

The good thing about that scenario if it happened is that the Tories would tear themselves to pieces over it.

[i_ateallthepies]

I dread the prospect but I think Leave will just tip it... mind, Glyn's silver lined cloud makes me feel a very tiny bit better about it.

[The Red Baron]

For anyone staying up to see the results:

https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/22/how-the-bbc-will-be-benchmarking-the-results-on-eu-referendum-night/

[Sammy Chung was King]

I hope you're right, DMC.

I hope that too. As I talked with Rob and Gav on facebook, next year (january or february, I hope) I want to come in Doncaster to work there. I hope this time I wouldn't be unlucky to get sick and stay in the hospital, like I was in Barnsley in 2014 . But until then I have to put aside money every month.

DMC, I think we at times in this country don't realise how lucky we are, we are a little spoilt. My dad was good friends with somebody from romania, he had a television repair place in Bentley, a few miles away from Doncaster.
He said in his homeland he was a professor of electronics, something like that. He defintely knew his way around a television, a really nice person.
I don't think the majority of our country, are anti-foreign people, they are worried, that the government hasn't the funds build the houses needed, and make our services larger to be able to accomodate extra people. The money is still very tight in the country compared to what it was, but it is improving steadily.

You went to the wrong place going barnsley, you were lucky it wasn't foot and mouth disease, only joking no different to donny really!.
 I wish you good luck, i hope you can come back to our country. You seem a very nice bloke and a hard worker, and if you like our football team even better!. You deserve to be able to work and be treated like a human being, unlike it currently is where you are, everybody deserves respect!.
 I was routing for romania in the euro's, i thought they had got a point against france, until payet popped up. I'm sure you're new manager will improve things. They looked a good solid side, just a bit short up front.
It's nice to hear the viewpoint of somebody from another country, it broadens the mind. Good luck, hope you get to Doncaster, i'm sure you will.

[DevilMayCry]

Thank you for your kind words. Many romanian people are nice persons, but we, as a country, are especially judged by what romanian gypsies did in other countries (they steal, kill etc in Romania too).

In 2014 I was in Barnsley because there (at Asos) I found a job from Bucharest. I thought it was a beginning until I would have found something else, but after that damn meningitis I had to return home.

I searched for this team at the beginning of 2014, when Tamas played here and I discovered this forum. Personally I only met Rob, he visited and helped me at hospital for a few times (and I'm very grateful for that).  That's why I want to come in Doncaster. I talked with many people from here and they seemed very nice people.

We had hopes at euro too, after that match against France (we where unlucky to lose than one) we thought we could make a good tournament. But we played badly against Switzerland and Albania, so we didn't deserved to qualify.

At euro we don't have good result, our only victory was at euro 2000, against England, when Ionel Ganea scored the 3-2 goal from penalty kick in the 89th minute.

[bobjimwilly]

I dread the prospect but I think Leave will just tip it...

I'm worried Leave will win too. Most of my friends are voting leave, even though the reasons they are giving are bonkers and they are quoting "facts" they have read that are simply not true. Did you know, for example, if we remain, the EU will force the UK government to reduce the size of our armed forces? 

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I dread the prospect but I think Leave will just tip it...

I'm worried Leave will win too. Most of my friends are voting leave, even though the reasons they are giving are bonkers and they are quoting "facts" they have read that are simply not true. Did you know, for example, if we leave the EU will force the UK government to reduce the size of our armed forces? 

It sounds daft. But stranger things have happened...  I agree there are clearly some voting without thought though and I say that having already voted leave this morning.

The bookies heavily back a remain win right now.  They aren't often wrong though were last year in the election.

[The Red Baron]

Anecdotally the turnout seems to be high in many parts of the country.

Turnout at last year's GE was 66.1%. I can see it being in that ballpark. Possibly higher.

[bobjimwilly]

The bookies heavily back a remain win right now.  They aren't often wrong though were last year in the election.

Have put a fiver on vote leave - I'm a winner either way then

[drfc1951]

There have been lies spouted by both camps, nobody knows who to believe.

[The Red Baron]

Latest IPSOS-Mori poll. Remain 52, Leave 48. Last one showed Leave ahead. Suggests late swing back to status quo as in Scottish Referendum.

[drfc1951]

I dread the prospect but I think Leave will just tip it...

I'm worried Leave will win too. Most of my friends are voting leave, even though the reasons they are giving are bonkers and they are quoting "facts" they have read that are simply not true. Did you know, for example, if we leave the EU will force the UK government to reduce the size of our armed forces? 

If we leave how can the EU force our government to reduce our armed forces.

[The Red Baron]

Peter Kellner:

http://politicscounter.com/?p=95

The range looks about right to me

[bobjimwilly]

I dread the prospect but I think Leave will just tip it...

I'm worried Leave will win too. Most of my friends are voting leave, even though the reasons they are giving are bonkers and they are quoting "facts" they have read that are simply not true. Did you know, for example, if we leave the EU will force the UK government to reduce the size of our armed forces? 

If we leave how can the EU force our government to reduce our armed forces.

oops, meant remain 

[wilts rover]

I dread the prospect but I think Leave will just tip it...

I'm worried Leave will win too. Most of my friends are voting leave, even though the reasons they are giving are bonkers and they are quoting "facts" they have read that are simply not true. Did you know, for example, if we leave the EU will force the UK government to reduce the size of our armed forces? 

If we leave how can the EU force our government to reduce our armed forces.

At gunpoint?

[wilts rover]

Anecdotally the turnout seems to be high in many parts of the country.

Turnout at last year's GE was 66.1%. I can see it being in that ballpark. Possibly higher.

I hope it is TRB. Even at 66% that would mean 1/3rd of the electorate are not interested in voting on the future direction of the country, which I think is shocking. I hope it is up around 80% (the Scottish Independence Referendum was 85% for example).

Whichever side wins there should be some major changes to the government, and government policy, tomorrow - their leadship has been appalling.

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you think some people, couples for instance, don't bother voting if they cancel each other out with opposite opinions?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Do you think some people, couples for instance, don't bother voting if they cancel each other out with opposite opinions?

Some may do, but it shouldn't be that way.

Bookies very much favouring a remain win, as predicted really, I would be surprised if it isn't.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I voted leave but could have gone either way. I went with more heart than head in the hope that we can be a better and stronger nation if we have to stand on our own two feet.

I believe there will always be immigration, and emigration so it's not this issue that decided my vote.

I think remain will win but I hope it doesn't lead us into becoming a lazy apathetic nation, leaving it to others to solve our problems.

I'd like to think a decision  to leave is brave rather than stupid accepting there will be uncertainty and some instability.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Been out canvassing in Sheffield. I don't like drawing stereotypes but it was quite stunning how people split into two groups.

I had nothing to identify the side I supported. But in every case, the people who turned out to be Remain supporters were open and chatty from the moment they answered the door, whereas the Leavers were the ones who opened the door a crack and immediately had a suspicious look on their faces.

Without exception.

That is actually very troubling.