Another referendum?

[Syme]

Sturgeon chancing her arm again:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/13/article-50-commons-lords-brexit-sturgeon-speech-corbyn-clarifies-his-position-on-second-scottish-independence-referendum-saying-hes-opposed-politics-live

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Any excuse to be fair.

[RedJ]

There's no way they'll give up until they've finally won.

[Lipsy]

Arguably an inevitable consequence of Brexit and a "hard" Brexit. Yes - independence has always been the SNP's endgame, but the material changes that Brexit will bring to Scotland are potentially so damaging that you can't blame them for going for it. Still, the Brexshirts could well get the little England they always wanted. 

[The Red Baron]

So potentially you lose full access to the EU Single Market and your response is to break off from your largest trading partner? Good luck!

Still, I'm sure they'll get at least 40% of the vote just by playing the usual anti-English grievance card. Hopefully the other 60% will take a more hard-headed view.

[Lipsy]

Well, some Brexshirts didn't like the feeling that they were a part of a union that wasn't listening to them, neither do the Scottish. 

[Sprotyrover]

Independance would be another Scottish DARIEN expedition leaving them bankrupt and coming back to us cap in hand.
They might find themselves minus a few lucrative ship building contracts as well.

[Dagenham Rover]

At the end of it Scotland did not have a separate referendum to leave the EU it was a UK referendum so in effect Scotland did not vote to remain in the EU the majority of the UK voted to leave quite simple really.
To try to use it as an excuse for another  independence referendum.............
 

[Syme]

Seems like the best of times and the worst of times for them to try this.

[Lipsy]

Total bullcrap; there are a number of smaller or similarly-sized countries in the EU that do just fine. Imagine if Scotland gets independence and London's banks decide to decamp in part to north of the border to maintain access to the EU, etc etc etc. It's potentially a brilliant time for them to get independence from a country looking to enjoy its not-so-splendid isolation.

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

[Lipsy]

At the end of it Scotland did not have a separate referendum to leave the EU it was a UK referendum so in effect Scotland did not vote to remain in the EU the majority of the UK voted to leave quite simple really 

So, we have a referendum to come out of a union but it makes no sense for Scotland to have a referendum to come out of a different union... Not sure your logic follows - especially as a second referendum was in the SNP's manifesto...

[Syme]

Much of the first referendum hyperbole from the SNP was based on the potential to be independent and affluent by relying on the income generated from North Sea oil. There was a lot of chat about Norway and the example they set.

But the sums didn't add up then and they look even worse now. If I was Scottish I'd be very cautious about buying in to the economic arguments as they stand.

[ballysbackin]

I think they just have got The Monk On because they got pasted at rugby by England at the weekend. Always were bad losers.

[RedJ]

Do they not have to get a unanimous vote from all 27 countries to grant them accession? can't see Spain ever allowing it with Catalonia watching closely.

[Lipsy]

People don't tend to be interested in facts when it comes to referendums - I thought that we'd all learned that one. 

[The Red Baron]

Total bullcrap; there are a number of smaller or similarly-sized countries in the EU that do just fine. Imagine if Scotland gets independence and London's banks decide to decamp in part to north of the border to maintain access to the EU, etc etc etc. It's potentially a brilliant time for them to get independence from a country looking to enjoy its not-so-splendid isolation.

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

But Scotland will not be members of the EU. The EU itself has been pretty clear about this. They will have to apply for membership and join countries like Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania in the waiting room.

Given what the fall in oil prices has done to their current account deficit they would probably have to undertake huge economic "reforms" (code for austerity) before being allowed in the EU. And they would have to agree to join the Euro.

Rather puts me in mind of another small state not doing all that well within the EU - Greece.

Sturgeon's timetable for the referendum means it could be held before the final terms of the UK Brexit deal are known. Imagine Scotland votes YES and then the final Brexit deal gives the UK favourable terms re the Single Market? Anyway her timetable is less to do with Brexit negotiations and more to do with her concern that the SNP will have lost its overall majority at Holyrood by 2020/ 2021. At some point the SNP's tactic of putting the blame for Scotland's domestic problems at the door of Westminster will wear thin.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

Actually, if Scotland remained in the EU they wouldn't be able to have their own trade agreements with England as a non-EU country. They'd be part of the EU and the EU negotiate trade agreements as a bloc, not as separate countries.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Much of the first referendum hyperbole from the SNP was based on the potential to be independent and affluent by relying on the income generated from North Sea oil. There was a lot of chat about Norway and the example they set.

But the sums didn't add up then and they look even worse now. If I was Scottish I'd be very cautious about buying in to the economic arguments as they stand.

Would those sums be worse in the EU or out of it, though?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The question Scottish need to ask is if they are better off and have more control outside the UK. Logic dictates probably not at this point but it's not a given.

The sad thing is the snp continuing to divide Scotland. How far do you go with independence? What if the Shetland islands decide actually they don't want to be part of Scotland any more, do they then leave?

Are we really broken as we are?

My family are mostly Scottish I went to school there also for a few years.  The first reaction from a family member today was, more of this rubbish again. He was a yes voter before but generally a lot of Scots just want the main issues they have sorting out, many of which are already devolved.

[Lipsy]

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

Actually, if Scotland remained in the EU they wouldn't be able to have their own trade agreements with England as a non-EU country. They'd be part of the EU and the EU negotiate trade agreements as a bloc, not as separate countries.

Yes, of course. I was (I think) slightly misquoting Sturgeon's response to a question where she said she would look to trade freely with England. Or I made it up. Either way, my fingers - and not my brain - were doing the work.

[Syme]

Much of the first referendum hyperbole from the SNP was based on the potential to be independent and affluent by relying on the income generated from North Sea oil. There was a lot of chat about Norway and the example they set.

But the sums didn't add up then and they look even worse now. If I was Scottish I'd be very cautious about buying in to the economic arguments as they stand.

Would those sums be worse in the EU or out of it, though?

I'd find it very difficult to say at this point. If they left the UK and then were forced to reapply to the EU then I suspect they'd be in a lot of bother, and bother that wouldn't be resolved any time soon. If they stay within the UK then they're probably still in bother whilst new trade agreements are made post Brexit, and that won't be resolved any time soon either. Either way it's not great for them, both options are a bit of a shot in the dark.

Personally I don't think the Brexit situation is an opportunity for them, I think it just adds even more confusion to what is already quite a speculative situation. If Sturgeon can make some strong arguments for leaving then fair enough, but I don't see Brexit in itself as a strong argument and I don't see the oil revenue as the basis for an independent Scottish economy.

[Lipsy]

Well, noises are conflicting about having to apply or re-apply to the EU. I would expect that would to become clearer in the future. However, Westminster's percieved "finger-in-ears" approach to Scotland's views on Brexit and more besides will no doubt be used. Whether there's an appetite for independence is another matter entirely, but Scotland could more than cope on its own (albeit within the EU). I saw a list the other day, and it's a pretty land and resource rich country that also happens to have oil as well.

[Donnywolf]

My comment is a regurgitated again one

Marvellous that everyone keeps telling me to get over my Remain vote and that it was a) democratic and b) a clear majority. I think it was Democratic and far too close which makes it so devisive

A lot of people also then say it is Democracy in action for a second Scottish Independence Referendum which when last held also produced a very close result BUT where is the fairness between the 2 ?

The Scottish people who voted to be independent and lost can keep banging on and on and on until they get the result they want as could the Leave the EU voters had they lost (even by 10% or more) BUT with the vote going their way there is no mechanism for those who voted Remain and lost by a small margin to ever get another chance.

Rant over - apologies as I know I just CANT stop posting this !

[Lipsy]

It is democracy in action, mind. The SNP had a pledge in its manifesto that said something along the lines of "If Scotland's circumstances change in a material way (such as being taken out of the EU or the Single Market against its will), the SNP will seek to hold a second independence referendum..." (I'm paraphrasing, but it's in there, apparently.)

Same would apply in the rUK - if a party had a manifesto pledge to stop Brexit or take us back into the EU and it won power then we could have another referendum or stop Brexit. I can't see it happening...

[Sprotyrover]

An intelligent scot who read the article about oil in the Sunday times this week will be voting to stay in the U.K.
They won't be seeing any improvements in oil revenues for about 20 years.
It looks like the Saudi bid to squeeze out the US shale producers has merely resulted in the big players taking over,and their view is simple,there are 75 Billion barrels of recoverable oil in the mid western shale deposit which makes it bigger than Saudi Arabia S largest field,and they can make $40 a barrel profit on it at the moment so they will merrily continue to produce it.
Scotlands deep sea industry is dead,I think Mrs Krankie needs to get a reality check!

[Lipsy]

It may well be a folly, but - as I (sort of) said - people tend to vote in referendums with their hearts and not their heads... If they do have a referendum again, it'll be the heart and not the head that wins it.

[The Red Baron]

Well, noises are conflicting about having to apply or re-apply to the EU. I would expect that would to become clearer in the future. However, Westminster's percieved "finger-in-ears" approach to Scotland's views on Brexit and more besides will no doubt be used. Whether there's an appetite for independence is another matter entirely, but Scotland could more than cope on its own (albeit within the EU). I saw a list the other day, and it's a pretty land and resource rich country that also happens to have oil as well.

The European Commission has been pretty clear that Scotland could not simply "take over" the UKs membership of the EU and, as an independent nation would have to go through the process of applying to join. Even if that application was ultimately successful it would take several years.

The EU's position might change, of course, but if it did it would potentially give the green light to every separatist movement in Europe.

So if Sturgeon is going to make the basis of her campaign "Vote Yes to stay in the EU" then that is as big, if not bigger, a porkie than anything in the EU Referendum campaign.

[Dagenham Rover]

Tbh she wants dropping on a disused oil rig somewhere out in the North Sea

[Lipsy]

Reported earlier today:

“An independent Scotland would have to go through the accession process, so it would not be automatic,” said Fabian Zuleeg, the chief executive of the European Policy Centre thinktank. “As Scotland does largely fulfil the [membership] criteria it would be a relatively smooth process.”

He said it was difficult to predict how long accession talks would take, but he would expect “some kind of interim arrangement” while Scotland detached itself from the UK.

Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU policy based in Edinburgh and a former European commission official, said she and other colleagues believed it would take until about 2022 or 2023 for an independent Scotland to join the EU, even if a referendum was staged before Brexit. Scotland would also have to commit to joining the euro at a later stage.

So, independence, interim deal and then into the EU having never really being out of it... This is all unchartered waters, so anything's possible, and I am quite sure that the EU would just love to keep Scotland in - that's certainly been Guy Verhofstadt's position.

[podrover73]

 

Tbh she wants dropping on a disused oil rig somewhere out in the North Sea