Another referendum?

[The Red Baron]

Reported earlier today:

“An independent Scotland would have to go through the accession process, so it would not be automatic,” said Fabian Zuleeg, the chief executive of the European Policy Centre thinktank. “As Scotland does largely fulfil the [membership] criteria it would be a relatively smooth process.”

He said it was difficult to predict how long accession talks would take, but he would expect “some kind of interim arrangement” while Scotland detached itself from the UK.

Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU policy based in Edinburgh and a former European commission official, said she and other colleagues believed it would take until about 2022 or 2023 for an independent Scotland to join the EU, even if a referendum was staged before Brexit. Scotland would also have to commit to joining the euro at a later stage.

So, independence, interim deal and then into the EU having never really being out of it... This is all unchartered waters, so anything's possible, and I am quite sure that the EU would just love to keep Scotland in - that's certainly been Guy Verhofstadt's position.

The sting is in the tail of the final para in bold. If Scotland leaves the UK with a large current account deficit and has to commit to joining the Euro - hello Austerity.

[i_ateallthepies]

Tbh she wants dropping on a disused oil rig somewhere out in the North Sea


 

I wouldn't disagree with that but, if only the Labour party had a leader as politically savvy as she obviously is.

[i_ateallthepies]

Theresa May commented:   "Instead of playing politics with the future of our country, the Scottish government should focus on delivering good government and public services for the people of Scotland. Politics is not a game."

Her predecessor would have done well to heed that advice before he chose to make politics a game by promising a Brexit referendum.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The more cynical me is thinking that Sturgeon's doing this to screw more concessions out of May to stop her holding another referendum, the holding of whch which would completely undermine May at the negotiating table - and May knows it, or at least she should.

[selby]

The Scots born people living in the rest of the U.K. should have a vote on independence this time,not those who reside in Scotland only.

[Lipsy]

Reported earlier today:

“An independent Scotland would have to go through the accession process, so it would not be automatic,” said Fabian Zuleeg, the chief executive of the European Policy Centre thinktank. “As Scotland does largely fulfil the [membership] criteria it would be a relatively smooth process.”

He said it was difficult to predict how long accession talks would take, but he would expect “some kind of interim arrangement” while Scotland detached itself from the UK.

Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU policy based in Edinburgh and a former European commission official, said she and other colleagues believed it would take until about 2022 or 2023 for an independent Scotland to join the EU, even if a referendum was staged before Brexit. Scotland would also have to commit to joining the euro at a later stage.

So, independence, interim deal and then into the EU having never really being out of it... This is all unchartered waters, so anything's possible, and I am quite sure that the EU would just love to keep Scotland in - that's certainly been Guy Verhofstadt's position.

The sting is in the tail of the final para in bold. If Scotland leaves the UK with a large current account deficit and has to commit to joining the Euro - hello Austerity.

Deficits mean nothing. Do Leave voters care about anything above and beyond leaving the EU? Are they bothered about the bill we'll face from the EU for doing so, the drop in Sterling, rise in costs and all the other things that may or may not happen? Of course they don't. Same applies in Scotland. IF the mood in Scotland is to leave the rUK, leave it will. And no amount of sensible arguments or talk of debt or lack of oil will prevent it from happening. In fact, should the Article 50 shit start pinching in Scotland, I dare say the mood in Scotland will turn pretty quickly against the rUK and Westminster especially... and no amount of talking sense or pointing out facts will change that.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The Scots born people living in the rest of the U.K. should have a vote on independence this time,not those who reside in Scotland only.

What about Scots born people wherever they are in the world?

[Ldr]

Why not a UK wide vote?, it affects the whole UK and including the English would probably get the result Sturgeon wants 

[BobG]

This is a very thought provoking article indeed. It discusses the Scottish situation along with an analysis of the UK as a whole that seeks to be independent of political postures. It's easy to read and it's not long. It's very worth reading.

http://click.mail.theguardian.com/?qs=81f19b9f81d8fedab73ece058ab6958baa4cba9fdea5e33066a468d97b3034d1d1db65d3dd97d66f488443b66dde56a1

Here's just 2 short paragraphs to illustrate the point:

"As the Financial Times recently pointed out, this settlement produced an expanding economy with falling wages. It should have come as little surprise, then, that many voters revolted against this situation of profound economic injustice.

What’s more, there is nothing progressive about declining to invest in skills in this country, while plundering poor countries of nurses or doctors or carers and then approaching immigration as if people were commodities to be bought up on the open market."

Bob

[hoolahoop]

Independance would be another Scottish DARIEN expedition leaving them bankrupt and coming back to us cap in hand.
They might find themselves minus a few lucrative ship building contracts as well.

They might find themselves with a few contracts on the other hand .
What is this cap in hand shite , North Sea oil has been fueling the whole economy since we went into the EU " cap in hand " as I seem to remember. Perhaps that oil would have made their balance of payments look so much  better had they have had the revenue from it .
Selective memory my friend or lack of knowledge. Small even smaller countries survive pretty well in the EU so could they given that they could gear up with the right investment for self- sufficiency in energy.

[hoolahoop]

At the end of it Scotland did not have a separate referendum to leave the EU it was a UK referendum so in effect Scotland did not vote to remain in the EU the majority of the UK voted to leave quite simple really.
To try to use it as an excuse for another  independence referendum.............
 

Wrong daggers , the decision would have gone the other way on IndyRef 1 had they not been frightened into voting against because of the worry of losing their EU membership on separation. 

They were given that commitment and we'll we are leaving stupidly . They don't want to suffer as we will and wrote that into their manifesto. They have been straight from the start unlike this despicable Tory Govt. and the mad press that support them .

[hoolahoop]

Total bullcrap; there are a number of smaller or similarly-sized countries in the EU that do just fine. Imagine if Scotland gets independence and London's banks decide to decamp in part to north of the border to maintain access to the EU, etc etc etc. It's potentially a brilliant time for them to get independence from a country looking to enjoy its not-so-splendid isolation.

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

Good post Lipsy and spot on , financial passporting through Edinburgh. The infrastructure is basically there already.

[hoolahoop]

Do they not have to get a unanimous vote from all 27 countries to grant them accession? can't see Spain ever allowing it with Catalonia watching closely.

The Catalans are not a separate country already - Scotland by definition is hence the use of the word " Union "

[hoolahoop]

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

Actually, if Scotland remained in the EU they wouldn't be able to have their own trade agreements with England as a non-EU country. They'd be part of the EU and the EU negotiate trade agreements as a bloc, not as separate countries.

Has that stopped Eire trading with us or indeed having a common travel policy ? A soft border with Scotland would be very similar to that between the South and Northern Ireland.

Besides they have every right to self-determination even after 400 years if their people want it . I suppose the same arguments were had when Czeckoslovakia split into 2 countries  .

[hoolahoop]

My comment is a regurgitated again one

Marvellous that everyone keeps telling me to get over my Remain vote and that it was a) democratic and b) a clear majority. I think it was Democratic and far too close which makes it so devisive

A lot of people also then say it is Democracy in action for a second Scottish Independence Referendum which when last held also produced a very close result BUT where is the fairness between the 2 ?

The Scottish people who voted to be independent and lost can keep banging on and on and on until they get the result they want as could the Leave the EU voters had they lost (even by 10% or more) BUT with the vote going their way there is no mechanism for those who voted Remain and lost by a small margin to ever get another chance.

Rant over - apologies as I know I just CANT stop posting this !

John I'm with you , Brexit is the equivalent of a suicide note for this country and especially for our young people . Stay with it there is much to unfold yet......keep the faith.

[hoolahoop]

An intelligent scot who read the article about oil in the Sunday times this week will be voting to stay in the U.K.
They won't be seeing any improvements in oil revenues for about 20 years.
It looks like the Saudi bid to squeeze out the US shale producers has merely resulted in the big players taking over,and their view is simple,there are 75 Billion barrels of recoverable oil in the mid western shale deposit which makes it bigger than Saudi Arabia S largest field,and they can make $40 a barrel profit on it at the moment so they will merrily continue to produce it.
Scotlands deep sea industry is dead,I think Mrs Krankie needs to get a reality check!

No shale deposits in Scotland then ?

[Lipsy]

Bad day UK:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sFZzKRSHOU" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sFZzKRSHOU</a>

I was scoffed at for suggesting that the Brexit vote could see the end of the union. Of course, it might well come to nought, but the vultures are circling...

[hoolahoop]

Reported earlier today:

“An independent Scotland would have to go through the accession process, so it would not be automatic,” said Fabian Zuleeg, the chief executive of the European Policy Centre thinktank. “As Scotland does largely fulfil the [membership] criteria it would be a relatively smooth process.”

He said it was difficult to predict how long accession talks would take, but he would expect “some kind of interim arrangement” while Scotland detached itself from the UK.

Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU policy based in Edinburgh and a former European commission official, said she and other colleagues believed it would take until about 2022 or 2023 for an independent Scotland to join the EU, even if a referendum was staged before Brexit. Scotland would also have to commit to joining the euro at a later stage.

So, independence, interim deal and then into the EU having never really being out of it... This is all unchartered waters, so anything's possible, and I am quite sure that the EU would just love to keep Scotland in - that's certainly been Guy Verhofstadt's position.

The sting is in the tail of the final para in bold. If Scotland leaves the UK with a large current account deficit and has to commit to joining the Euro - hello Austerity.

Erme they have austerity now and feck me perhaps a lot more to come if we don't get that free trade deal with Borneo and East Timor. They won't be negotiating for years with the EU ......They would possibly be in it by 2020 trading freely with 27 + other countries . Meanwhile we would still be negotiating Free trade deals on the back of a fag packet.

[DevilMayCry]

UK lived before the EU exist, and will live even without EU...many countries done it before joining the EU.

In my opinion, being a member of EU has some advantages (more or less), but that doesn't mean that a country should be forced to stay in because of it. I would have preferred that UK shouldn't leave the EU (personal reasons)...but the most people voted out, so everybody should accept it. 

As for the second referendum in Scotland...I don't think that so many Scottish would want to leave the UK, even if that means leaving the EU.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

Actually, if Scotland remained in the EU they wouldn't be able to have their own trade agreements with England as a non-EU country. They'd be part of the EU and the EU negotiate trade agreements as a bloc, not as separate countries.

Has that stopped Eire trading with us or indeed having a common travel policy ? A soft border with Scotland would be very similar to that between the South and Northern Ireland.

Besides they have every right to self-determination even after 400 years if their people want it . I suppose the same arguments were had when Czeckoslovakia split into 2 countries  .

I'm not sure what you're trying to say...Eire is trading with us and has a travel policy with us as co-members of the Single Market. They do not have any separate agreements with us over and above that and never have, given that we joined the EU together at the same time. The difference between a hard and soft border is about how heavily it's policed, not about what regulations are in place about crossing it.

[Syme]

I'm not sure either. There are some travel nuances about our relationship with Ireland but no trade ones as far as I'm aware.

[The Red Baron]

Scotland won't sever ties with the UK; it'll look to do free trade agreements with England but stay in the Single Market and EU. In that sense, it'll have the best of all worlds, leaving little England to bask in its delusions of grandeur.

Actually, if Scotland remained in the EU they wouldn't be able to have their own trade agreements with England as a non-EU country. They'd be part of the EU and the EU negotiate trade agreements as a bloc, not as separate countries.

Has that stopped Eire trading with us or indeed having a common travel policy ? A soft border with Scotland would be very similar to that between the South and Northern Ireland.

Besides they have every right to self-determination even after 400 years if their people want it . I suppose the same arguments were had when Czeckoslovakia split into 2 countries  .

The UK is more than willing to have tariff-free trade with the Irish Republic and I suspect the feeling is mutual. But Ireland won't have the freedom to strike a trade deal with the UK while it remains in the EU.

The same would apply if Scotland became independent and subsequently joined the EU.

[Lipsy]

Very little is truly black and white, but this rings true with me. If this is the case, we (and I use the word very loosely) only have ourselves to blame for all of this...

http://novaramedia.com/2017/03/14/the-real-threat-to-the-union-is-english-nationalism/

[Syme]

There seems to be a slightly worrying rise of nationalism in Western Europe, coupled with ever increasing military funding. It makes you wonder what we're sleep walking into.

[Lipsy]

Oh yeah, let's not forget that this is a thing that's happening throughout Europe and beyond. I do think that there's at least some mileage in looking into who is benefitting from all of this...

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories, but this country and its leader keeps cropping up. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-12/eu-turmoil-makes-russia-the-sanctioned-bond-market-traders-love

[glosterred]

These once in a generation referendum come around quickly nowadays

[Lipsy]

I'm more surprised when a government actually sticks to its manifesto pledges, tbh. 

[Lipsy]

I haven't fact-checked this, so approach with care. However, this was the list I referenced earlier in this thread. Assuming 10% of this is accurate, I'd say the Scots had reason enough to go it alone and for our govt. to want to keep hold:

Scotland has only 8.3% of the UK's population. 8.3%! Remember this important figure... 8.3%
But we DO have...
32% of the land area
61% of the sea area
90% of the fresh water. (There is more fresh water in Loch Ness than In England and Wales combined!)
65% of the natural gas production
96.5% of the crude oil production
47% of the open cast coal production
81% of the untapped coal reserves
62% of the timber production
46% of the total forest area
92% of the hydroelectric production
40% of the wind wave and solar energy production
60% of the fish landings
30% of the beef herd
20% of the sheep herd
9% of the dairy herd
10% of the pig herd
15% of the cereal holdings
20% of the potato holdings
99.9% of the Whisky industry.
We have a...
17 billion pound construction industry
13 billion food and drink industry
10 billion business services industry
9.3 billion chemical services industry
9.3 billion tourism industry
7 billion financial services industry
5 billion aero service industry
4.5 billion whisky export industry
3.1 billion life sciences industry
Scotland still has 350 million pounds worth of textile exports
We have 25% of Europe's wave and wind energy potential.
And finally, we are blessed to have 1.5 trillion pounds - £1,500,000,000,000 worth of oil and gas reserves.
All of this, yet only 8.3% of The UK's population...
IGNORANCE...
If you hear anyone saying "I don't like Nicola Sturgeon" or "I don't like the SNP"...This vote is about Scotland's right to elect its own government... It has nothing whatsoever to do with Sturgeon or the SNP. Don't let political ignorance ruin this opportunity.
Do you know... This is the UK's legacy of success in our history of being 'better together':
The UK has the 3rd lowest pensions in the 34 OECD countries of the world
The UK has the single most expensive childcare in the European Union
The UK has the second lowest-paid economy in the entire developed world
The UK has the 3rd longest working hours in the EU
The UK has the lowest number of holidays in the EU
The UK has the 8th highest gender inequality pay gap out of the EU's 28 countries
The UK has the highest likelihood of poverty in disablement in the EU
The UK has the highest rail prices in Europe
The UK has the second highest housing cost in Europe
The UK has the highest fuel poverty rates in Europe.
The UK is the 4th highest country of wealth inequality on the entire planet!
Surely these awful figures should not be possible when you read the Scottish statistics above...
Finally, did you know that in all of the UK elections for Westminster ever!... Not one vote cast in SCOTLAND has ever mattered! Because of the Westminster numbers, whatever government England votes for, the UK gets. So we have no democracy here!!! 4 decades of Tory rule that we voted against is proof enough, and our defiance was punished by the closure of all the mines; closure of all the steelworks; closure of all the shipyards losing thousands of jobs. The term used by Thatcher when these industries needed some assistance was "let the markets decide". Funny how when the greedy banks collapsed everywhere they were bailed out to the tune of over a trillion pounds of our money... Not a mention of "let the markets decide".
FACTS:
Fact: Scotland has an oil boom waiting to happen on the West Coast, but Michael Heseltine signed a cessation of any form of oil exploration in the entire area in the 80's to make way for nuclear submarines which Scotland doesn't want!
Fact: Scotland has shown its revulsion time and time again to nuclear weapons but they place them here against our countries wishes. A recent contingency report was carried out about the feasibility of relocating them in Portsmouth. The report stated that it was unfeasible because the detrimental risk to the area of an incident was too high. (Ok for the Clyde though)
Fact: Scotland, with only 1 Tory MP, was forced to take the shocking attack on the poor & disabled called The Bedroom Tax, even though Holyrood voted to utterly reject this awful tax on the poor. Westminster gave us it anyway!
Fact: We are led to believe that the oil in our waters is finished and it's a dying industry. Yet 13.5 billion has been invested by oil companies in the last 2 years alone!
Fact: The Clair Oil Field is about to open its 3rd phase, and on its own has over 650 million barrels which will be extracted over 20+ years with production reaching a hundred thousand barrels a day!
Fact: Scotland gives more to Westminster than it gets back. Do you really think they'd be so keen to keep us if we were being subsidised like they'd have us believe?
Fact: Westminster has amassed over £1.3 trillion debt and still growing at nearly £6000 a second. That's another £516 million today alone which YOU will have to pay for.
Fact: Of the 178 countries that have gained their own independence across this planet, not one single one of them has ever asked to reverse this independence

[Bentley Bullet]

It makes you wonder why anyone should want to come and live in England, doesn't it?

Sorry in advance if it's racist to say England.

[Filo]

I haven't fact-checked this, so approach with care. However, this was the list I referenced earlier in this thread. Assuming 10% of this is accurate, I'd say the Scots had reason enough to go it alone and for our govt. to want to keep hold:

Scotland has only 8.3% of the UK's population. 8.3%! Remember this important figure... 8.3%
But we DO have...
32% of the land area
61% of the sea area
90% of the fresh water. (There is more fresh water in Loch Ness than In England and Wales combined!)
65% of the natural gas production
96.5% of the crude oil production
47% of the open cast coal production
81% of the untapped coal reserves
62% of the timber production
46% of the total forest area
92% of the hydroelectric production
40% of the wind wave and solar energy production
60% of the fish landings
30% of the beef herd
20% of the sheep herd
9% of the dairy herd
10% of the pig herd
15% of the cereal holdings
20% of the potato holdings
99.9% of the Whisky industry.
We have a...
17 billion pound construction industry
13 billion food and drink industry
10 billion business services industry
9.3 billion chemical services industry
9.3 billion tourism industry
7 billion financial services industry
5 billion aero service industry
4.5 billion whisky export industry
3.1 billion life sciences industry
Scotland still has 350 million pounds worth of textile exports
We have 25% of Europe's wave and wind energy potential.
And finally, we are blessed to have 1.5 trillion pounds - £1,500,000,000,000 worth of oil and gas reserves.
All of this, yet only 8.3% of The UK's population...
IGNORANCE...
If you hear anyone saying "I don't like Nicola Sturgeon" or "I don't like the SNP"...This vote is about Scotland's right to elect its own government... It has nothing whatsoever to do with Sturgeon or the SNP. Don't let political ignorance ruin this opportunity.
Do you know... This is the UK's legacy of success in our history of being 'better together':
The UK has the 3rd lowest pensions in the 34 OECD countries of the world
The UK has the single most expensive childcare in the European Union
The UK has the second lowest-paid economy in the entire developed world
The UK has the 3rd longest working hours in the EU
The UK has the lowest number of holidays in the EU
The UK has the 8th highest gender inequality pay gap out of the EU's 28 countries
The UK has the highest likelihood of poverty in disablement in the EU
The UK has the highest rail prices in Europe
The UK has the second highest housing cost in Europe
The UK has the highest fuel poverty rates in Europe.
The UK is the 4th highest country of wealth inequality on the entire planet!
Surely these awful figures should not be possible when you read the Scottish statistics above...
Finally, did you know that in all of the UK elections for Westminster ever!... Not one vote cast in SCOTLAND has ever mattered! Because of the Westminster numbers, whatever government England votes for, the UK gets. So we have no democracy here!!! 4 decades of Tory rule that we voted against is proof enough, and our defiance was punished by the closure of all the mines; closure of all the steelworks; closure of all the shipyards losing thousands of jobs. The term used by Thatcher when these industries needed some assistance was "let the markets decide". Funny how when the greedy banks collapsed everywhere they were bailed out to the tune of over a trillion pounds of our money... Not a mention of "let the markets decide".
FACTS:
Fact: Scotland has an oil boom waiting to happen on the West Coast, but Michael Heseltine signed a cessation of any form of oil exploration in the entire area in the 80's to make way for nuclear submarines which Scotland doesn't want!
Fact: Scotland has shown its revulsion time and time again to nuclear weapons but they place them here against our countries wishes. A recent contingency report was carried out about the feasibility of relocating them in Portsmouth. The report stated that it was unfeasible because the detrimental risk to the area of an incident was too high. (Ok for the Clyde though)
Fact: Scotland, with only 1 Tory MP, was forced to take the shocking attack on the poor & disabled called The Bedroom Tax, even though Holyrood voted to utterly reject this awful tax on the poor. Westminster gave us it anyway!
Fact: We are led to believe that the oil in our waters is finished and it's a dying industry. Yet 13.5 billion has been invested by oil companies in the last 2 years alone!
Fact: The Clair Oil Field is about to open its 3rd phase, and on its own has over 650 million barrels which will be extracted over 20+ years with production reaching a hundred thousand barrels a day!
Fact: Scotland gives more to Westminster than it gets back. Do you really think they'd be so keen to keep us if we were being subsidised like they'd have us believe?
Fact: Westminster has amassed over £1.3 trillion debt and still growing at nearly £6000 a second. That's another £516 million today alone which YOU will have to pay for.
Fact: Of the 178 countries that have gained their own independence across this planet, not one single one of them has ever asked to reverse this independence

Not a fact!