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CBCBYeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that. Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games out of 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI inMcCulloughKiwomyaButlerBaudryAndrewplus assorted others?
We've reached the big 50, should now be safe.
Quote from: les@donr on April 07, 2018, 05:07:03 pmWe've reached the big 50, should now be safe.I think we will be safe Les, but not if we end up losing our next 7 games, and stay on 50 points.Bury and Northampton won't reach 50, and MK Dons might or might not. But I think all other teams may well reach 50. One win from our last seven will see us safe IMHO.
Still believe survival will be fairly high this season so will stick by 52 points to see us completely safe.
Look at the table again Vicar. All except Bury, Northampton and maybe MK Dons could easily get 50 points, even allowing for taking points off each other.But I don't think we will finish on 50 points.
Mathematically, after today's results, 61 points is the current required total to absolutely guarantee safety.There's still plenty of work to be done. Wimbledon losing to Charlton this week would see the tally required drop by a further two points - a draw and it drops to 60, at least, before considering any results elsewhere.
Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan
Quote from: Rigoglioso on April 07, 2018, 11:01:16 pmMathematically, after today's results, 61 points is the current required total to absolutely guarantee safety.There's still plenty of work to be done. Wimbledon losing to Charlton this week would see the tally required drop by a further two points - a draw and it drops to 60, at least, before considering any results elsewhere.What a load of tosh, you are suggesting the bottom 4 win every game left to the end of the season . What's that, about 20 odd wins on the spin combined lol. Sod their form for the first 40 games shall we? Mark my words, we are already safe, no more work at all needed. Feel free to bookmark this and bring it up later.. ..plenty of work to be done!! .. brilliant. .
Quote from: ravenrover on April 08, 2018, 11:46:28 amAdam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play WiganContinue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done" that's the kicker. So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe . When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc.. when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed. Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready.. everyone needs to relax....
I think its 69 actually, for every win there's a loss, so 23 wins is the most every team can get if its averaged out.
RigoActually we’re both wrong. Assume the bottom 3 lose every game against the top 21. Assume the top 21 win every other game against each other. That gives the top 21 69 points. So far it’s as you say. But then the top 21 win EVERY game against the bottom 3, home AND away. That’s 6 games = 18 points. So in theory, all the top 21 could hit 87 points. So, the lowest number of points any side could have to get to be mathematically certain of not being relegated is 88.