0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.
Well not end up on 46 points, but if we did, wed have a better than evens chance of staying up.
20/1 best price for relegation https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegationlooking at the odds list does install either confidence in staying up or "in the alternative" a wonderful opportunity to harvest money
4 points will do it.
Before the Fleetwood game I predicted we'd get 20 more points before the end of the season. We were on 38 points at that time. I don't see any reason to change that view given the games we have left, so 58 points will see us comfortably lower mid table. That's 5 more wins and 2 draws.
Let's look at it a different way. Take each team's last 8 game points per game figure and extend it for the rest of the season. It would produce a table like this;Blackpoool 57Oldham 56Northampton 55Oxford 53Bradford 53 (!)Doncaster 52Wimbledon 48-------------Bury 47Fleetwood 43MK Dons 35Rochdale 3446 points is not an outlandish prediction but does seem a little low. I think it will probably be more like what TRB suggested, and I think the club should be aiming to get over 50 points ASAP.
I had a 20 second look at our fixtures and got very anxious. I can easily see us going through March not picking up a point, which makes April make or break because I hold no hope if we're within 3 points of relegation going into Wigan. ANY points in March would be a massive bonus, even 1 or 2.
There’s no particular reason why we should be concerned about our fixtures. We have one of the easier possible run-ins. Out of the 11 games remaining, we have only 3 against sides currently in the top 10 (admittedly, 2 of those are against the sides that will finish 1st and 2nd, but then the other one is against a Bradford City side in free-fall). Also, we have only 4 of those 11 matches against sides in the top 19 of the form table. It’s entirely in our hands. Whether that is supposed to be a comfort, I’m not sure...