Jeff just said we're not safe..

[Donnyjim]

Just 5 points from the drop zone we are definitely looking down and not up. Our goal difference is pretty good though.

The question is, if we did go down would DF stay?

[Padge_DRFC]

He would be sacked it wouldn’t be his choice. The goal I presume was to stay up.

[dickos1]

Of course we're not safe
But we only need 7 or 8 points from 11 games

[BillyStubbsTears]

4 points will do it.

[dickos1]

If someone told me we'd end up on 46 points I'd be very worried

[RoversAlias]

Agreed, I'm not convinced 4 points will be enough. I do think we'll comfortably surpass 46 though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

We’ll not end up on 46 points, but if we did, we’d have a better than evens chance of staying up.

[Colemans Left Hook]

20/1 best price for relegation

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

looking at the odds  list does install either confidence in staying up or "in the alternative" a wonderful opportunity to harvest money

[The Red Baron]

We’ll not end up on 46 points, but if we did, we’d have a better than evens chance of staying up.

.

I'd have thought 49 was more likely to be the safety mark. The bottom three will probably stay pretty much where they are but the last place is up for grabs.

That said, a couple of wins and a handful of draws will be enough.

[Donnyjim]

20/1 best price for relegation

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

looking at the odds  list does install either confidence in staying up or "in the alternative" a wonderful opportunity to harvest money

Lump on ! At 20-1 I say

[idler]

I can understand a bit of negativity if we play and lose but it's stretching it a bit when we don't have a game and allow more time for our injured players to recover.
Apologies if it was tongue in cheek. 🙂

[dknward2]

Strange how Walsall are safe so sky say yet we are only 2 points behind and we not

[Campsall rover]

If we win 10 out of our 11 remaining games and draw the other then based on past statistics we will be in the play offs. Now that is being positive.
( well fantasy ) I suppose.
Being realistic I still think 49 points to be certain of staying up.
BST I think 46 might be a touch optermistic. But you could be proved correct of course.

[idler]

I don't want to tempt fate but if we can't get six or seven points from our remaining games we might as well pack in. Surely lightening having struck twice already can't happen to us a third time.🙂

[Not Now Kato]

Before the Fleetwood game I predicted we'd get 20 more points before the end of the season.  We were on 38 points at that time.
 
I don't see any reason to change that view given the games we have left, so 58 points will see us comfortably lower mid table.  That's 5 more wins and 2 draws.

[johnny rovers]

4 points will do it.

No it will not

[Copps is Magic]

4th bottom placed finisher's points total last 21 seasons;

49
46
50
47
48
43
47
50
49
48*
50
47
50
51
50
48
44
51
44
50
50

Average 48.2

46 points has only been good enough 3 times (14%), 4 times depending on goal difference.

Let's look at it a different way. Take each team's last 8 game points per game figure and extend it for the rest of the season. It would produce a table like this;

Blackpoool 57
Oldham 56
Northampton 55
Oxford 53
Bradford 53 (!)
Doncaster 52
Wimbledon 48
-------------
Bury 47
Fleetwood 43
MK Dons 35
Rochdale 34


46 points is not an outlandish prediction but does seem a little low. I think it will probably be more like what TRB suggested, and I think the club should be aiming to get over 50 points ASAP.

[RoversAlias]

Before the Fleetwood game I predicted we'd get 20 more points before the end of the season.  We were on 38 points at that time.
 
I don't see any reason to change that view given the games we have left, so 58 points will see us comfortably lower mid table.  That's 5 more wins and 2 draws.

I've been working on a (completely unscientific and useless) theory of us getting 'average' results the rest of the season, so after each game roughly I work out how many more points we'd get if we get equal wins, draws and losses from that point on. I started with us getting to 60 points and have flitted between 55 and 58 since, and I still expect us to manage about that and finish in lower midtable. Which I'd be more than happy with, just hope we get a couple of wins soon or else the pressure will start to increase on us.

[pib]

The trouble with predicting on season-long form (which I'm not saying anybody has in this thread particularly) is that there often teams that defy their season-long form (for good or bad) towards the end of the season.

If one of our relegation rivals doesn't go on a run, and if another team who looks clear right now doesn't get dragged into it, I'll be very surprised.

[ravenrover]

Couldn't give a monkeys really about how many points will keep us safe. as long as we are 4 points clear of the 4th bottom team when we emerge from the tunnel to play Wigan

[BillyStubbsTears]

Let's look at it a different way. Take each team's last 8 game points per game figure and extend it for the rest of the season. It would produce a table like this;

Blackpoool 57
Oldham 56
Northampton 55
Oxford 53
Bradford 53 (!)
Doncaster 52
Wimbledon 48
-------------
Bury 47
Fleetwood 43
MK Dons 35
Rochdale 34


46 points is not an outlandish prediction but does seem a little low. I think it will probably be more like what TRB suggested, and I think the club should be aiming to get over 50 points ASAP.

CiM

Nice analysis and very similar to what I’ve done over previous years. Nice to see it catching on.

You’re figures are suggesting that, given GD, if we got 47 points, we’d stay up. Which is only marginally different to what I am saying.

If you take recent form over 10 matches rather than 8 (arbitrary, I know) then the prediction of the final points of the bottom 4 is:

21st - 45 points
22nd - 43 points
23rd - 40 points
24th - 35 points

That prediction for 4th bottom has been consistently at 44-45 points for the 5-6 weeks that I’ve been doing these numbers. Which is why I’ve been sticking my neck out for a while and saying 45-46 points will be enough for a side to stay up.

Nothing guaranteed of course and I agree that it does seem a little low. But it also did in previous seasons when this prediction approach was right to within a point. Anyway it’s more fun that arguing over board room discussions in Swindon 3 years back. If I’m wrong in my prediction then so be it. In any case, it really ought to be an academic argument because if we go down from this position, that would be a catastrophic collapse.

EDIT:

Just looking back at previous years, I think I may well have used 8 match form rather than 10 match form. In which case CiM, I’d go for your figure that 47 points and a decent GD would keep a side up.

[The Red Baron]

We are in a better position than we were two years ago, so we shouldn't be too worried, but I'll be happy when we've got a couple more wins.

[Copps is Magic]

I had a 20 second look at our fixtures and got very anxious. I can easily see us going through March not picking up a point, which makes April make or break because I hold no hope if we're within 3 points of relegation going into Wigan. ANY points in March would be a massive bonus, even 1 or 2.

[drfchound]

I had a 20 second look at our fixtures and got very anxious. I can easily see us going through March not picking up a point, which makes April make or break because I hold no hope if we're within 3 points of relegation going into Wigan. ANY points in March would be a massive bonus, even 1 or 2.

Unlike some others, I share your concern Copps.
We are a long way from being safe just yet.
Hopefully we can avoid another poor end of season.

[Filo]

I had a 20 second look at our fixtures and got very anxious. I can easily see us going through March not picking up a point, which makes April make or break because I hold no hope if we're within 3 points of relegation going into Wigan. ANY points in March would be a massive bonus, even 1 or 2.

6 of those remaining fixtures are against teams below us in the table, if we don't get enough points from those then we deserve to go down

[BillyStubbsTears]

There’s no particular reason why we should be concerned about our fixtures. We have one of the easier possible run-ins.

Out of the 11 games remaining, we have only 3 against sides currently in the top 10 (admittedly, 2 of those are against the sides that will finish 1st and 2nd, but then the other one is against a Bradford City side in free-fall).  Also, we have only 4 of those 11 matches against sides in the top 19 of the form table.

It’s entirely in our hands. Whether that is supposed to be a comfort, I’m not sure...

[pib]

Bury, MK and Wimbledon are the ones I'm looking at. Win those and we should be OK.

[drfchound]

Don’t forget though lads that the form tables change throughout the season, which is probably good when you take into account that we only have one win from our last eleven games.

Also don’t forget that towards the end of the season some of the sides near the bottom usually find something extra as they are fighting for their futures.

[Chris Black come back]

It is now March and we have won one game in 2018. Draws not really good enough.

[Chris Black come back]

There’s no particular reason why we should be concerned about our fixtures. We have one of the easier possible run-ins.

Out of the 11 games remaining, we have only 3 against sides currently in the top 10 (admittedly, 2 of those are against the sides that will finish 1st and 2nd, but then the other one is against a Bradford City side in free-fall).  Also, we have only 4 of those 11 matches against sides in the top 19 of the form table.

It’s entirely in our hands. Whether that is supposed to be a comfort, I’m not sure...

Three of our last five defeats have been against teams in the bottom half, one against a team just above and only one (Rotherham) against what can be classed as a decent side.

If aim is to stay up then we need to be beating folk down with us.