Odds

[Michael Shaw]

If "Doomed" means spending most of next season in the bottom half of the table after spending nothing in the transfer window, then yes, we probably are "Doomed".

[mpc123]

Maybe you should take your tongue out of your cheek and then maybe we can understand what it is you really mean?

Ahhhhhh the royal we

[Michael Shaw]

Keep up the sarcasm mpc, see if that helps if we struggle all season.

[Michael Shaw]

mpc, I'm sure if Cantley Rover had the time or the crayons he would explain it to you.

[mpc123]

Keep up the sarcasm mpc, see if that helps if we struggle all season.

I don't think we will struggle, I'm not saying we are going to be world beaters but I'm alot more positive than previous seasons,  even though tbf I'm never negative, I don't have time for doom and gloom and bringing everyone down.

Sheffield utd are looking to spend big cash by the looks of it, that could be an interesting friendly.

[Jimmydee]

The thread was titled ‘odds’ does anyone know the odds for top 6 or promotion?

[the vicar]

In actual fact Shrewsbury was one of the favourites for relegation last season and they was in the playoffs, and Leicester was favourites to go down from the prem when they won the league SO IT DOES NOT ADD UP

[KiwiRover]

The thread was titled ‘odds’ does anyone know the odds for top 6 or promotion?

To win: 33/1
Promotion: 10/1
Top 6: 7/2
Top half: 11/10
Top Yorkshire team: 7/4
Relegation: 9/2

All from Skybet.

[mpc123]

Top half  11/10 for those who think the bookies know everything, they are expecting improvement. The doom and gloom boys cant use this anymore, what will they come up with next.

An inside source tells me......

[Michael Shaw]

Why wouldn’t we all be optimistic for this coming season?

We have shed Alcock, Baudry, Kongolo, Williams, Houghton, Boyle, Fielding, Walker and Evina. Regardless of whether they were contracted, loaned or academy players they have gone and the money has been saved. 

We have brought in 3 magnificent signings in Watters, Crawford and Wilkes that every other team were fighting us for.

The board have achieved their objective of making Rovers self sufficient by not spending any money when other clubs have found the money for good players.

No doubt we won’t have any injuries (like last season) so we won’t need the 6 players we are down.

The bookies expect us to be about the same as last season but we all know they are stupid:-
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/promotion

What have we to complain about? 18 points from the first 6 games, easy.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Why wouldn’t we all be optimistic for this coming season?

We have shed Alcock, Baudry, Kongolo, Williams, Houghton, Boyle, Fielding, Walker and Evina. Regardless of whether they were contracted, loaned or academy players they have gone and the money has been saved. 

We have brought in 3 magnificent signings in Watters, Crawford and Wilkes that every other team were fighting us for.

The board have achieved their objective of making Rovers self sufficient by not spending any money when other clubs have found the money for good players.

No doubt we won’t have any injuries (like last season) so we won’t need the 6 players we are down.

The bookies expect us to be about the same as last season but we all know they are stupid:-
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/promotion

What have we to complain about? 18 points from the first 6 games, easy.

i've sussed out your logic and claim my £5

 Peterbrough as you know started the season off on fire winning all their first 4 games and 12 points top of the league and all that before coming to The Keepmoat . They had signed a non league out of contract 30+ goal a season National League goal machine player who conveniently had a 5 game ban at the start of the season I recall so couldn't play here. (turned out to be an absolute flop)  so I see your logic if he cann win  the first 4 games last season 6 wins should be no problem

Saturday 5th August LEAGUE ONE Peterborough United 2 Plymouth Argyle 1
Saturday 12th August LEAGUE ONE Bristol Rovers  1 Peterborough United 4
Saturday 19th August LEAGUE ONE Peterborough United 2 Rotherham United 1
Saturday 26th August LEAGUE ONE Northampton Town 1 Peterborough United 4
Saturday 2nd September LEAGUE ONE Doncaster Rovers 0 Peterborough United 0


Q.E.D.

[GazLaz]

Top half  11/10 for those who think the bookies know everything, they are expecting improvement. The doom and gloom boys cant use this anymore, what will they come up with next.

An inside source tells me......

You are wrong there. They are saying we are odds on to finish in the bottom half again.

[KiwiRover]

Yep.

Bottom half finish 8/11

[KiwiRover]

33/1 To win the league makes us joint 15th favourites with 4 other teams.
Not that that means much.....

[GazLaz]

33/1 To win the league makes us joint 15th favourites with 4 other teams.
Not that that means much.....

It means we have about a 3% chance of winning the league all things being considered.

[Glyn_Wigley]

It means the bookies think they'll get more money with those odds.

[GazLaz]

It means the bookies think they'll get more money with those odds.

You’re completely clueless. They use decades of historical data and algorithms to price up football. If people with better data and information think that price is wrong it will shorten. Mistakes get picked up on by the big punting syndicates do they can’t get away with making them. By the start of the season the prices teams are will be very accurate in regards to representing a teams chances, that’s a fact. They don’t use guess work, they don’t stab in the dark it’s driven by very intelligent systems.

Saying a team has a 3% chance of winning the league doesn’t mean they can’t win it does it, of course it can happen, but it’s less likely than a team like Sunderland that might have a 25% chance of winning it.

I hope we defy the odds but all I’m saying is that I know for a fact they are a decent barometer.   

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

[The Red Baron]

It would be an interesting exercise to take the odds for League One with one betting company (which updates them regularly) and see how they change between the first issue and the start of the season.

Early odds I've seen tend to make clubs relegated from above favourites to go back up and those promoted from below favourites to go down, with the rest pretty much ranked in the order they finished the season before. I'm sure they have changed quite a bit by now and will change again before the season starts.

I think it's inevitable that Rovers will start the season as big outsiders for promotion, given that we seem unlikely to make any Marquee signings (unless McCann is a very good poker player!). Whether you think we are worth a punt probably depends on whether you think McCann can get more out of the squad than Ferguson did.

[GazLaz]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

[Cantley Rover]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

Businesses making money shocker. Do you think bookmakers should be run as charitable organisations to give football fans some enjoyment then Glyn?

[Boomstick]

basically, we have no chance and the betting algorithms know this.
however, it goes against the propaganda peddled be the vsc. so they argue it and wonder where the animosity cones from.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I don't see the VSC arguing about anything.

[GazLaz]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.

[DearneValleyRover]

basically, we have no chance and the betting algorithms know this.
however, it goes against the propaganda peddled be the vsc. so they argue it and wonder where the animosity cones from.

You are yet again confusing this forum with the vsc and a person who is a member of the vsc is only posting their opinion not that of the vsc, I hope that clears things up.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.

So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.

[GazLaz]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.

So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.

If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be.

To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yes, you're right, the bookies are completely altruistic and only produce odds for football fans to argue over.

When people to “the bookies” it makes me laugh. Like there’s a man there scratching his head scribbling prices down. “Bookies” don’t really exist any more. You are betting against a computer algorithm model. Especially with football.

Aye, a computer programmed to make the bookies as much money as they can milk the market for.

They don’t do that by putting teams in at bigger prices than they should be which you are implying. You are again commenting on something you know zero about.

So when somebody lumps a million on Rovers to win the league and the odds plummet as a result, are you telling me that that means we actually are more likely to win the league? Or is that the bookies are altering the odds to make sure they minimise their risk and maximise their profit - and that therefore the odds do not reflect true probability at all? Apparently I know zero about it so am misunderstanding the situation here.

If a real weigh of money comes into the market from massive syndicates that could possibly have better data than the people willing to lay the bets the price will retract to the appropriate level. By kick off on the first day of the season the market will have settled and be as accurate as it can possibly be.

To give you an idea, if you can make 5% a year betting on Premier League football you are doing well. The prices are that accurate.

So you agree that odds are a reflection of money bet then?

[mpc123]

Omg here we go again.

If sunderland get relegated again after being one of the favourites for promotion what does that make the odds again, just a set of numbers designed to make the bookmakers money.