0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
And that's why Labour won't win the next Election Crofty. Momentum convincing themselves that a tag line like that will have widespread appeal because it appeals to them. That's why no-one in Momentum will countenance talking about Corbyn having approval ratings amongst the electorate in general, measured in the teens. Because his approval rating amongst them is measured in the 90s. So of COURSE he's the right leader.
The problem lies beyond Corbyn it's the crazy fringe group Momentum which is calling the shots for the Labour Party that's the issue.
That's a very brave prediction Billy. I predict the only way there wont be an election this year is if we crash out on 29th March. Because if May gets her deal through with a backstop the DUP will bring her down and if she gets it through with a CU, the ERG will.It should keep the Daily Fail in newsprint for a while...
Quote from: Sprotyrover on February 11, 2019, 04:55:05 pmThe problem lies beyond Corbyn it's the crazy fringe group Momentum which is calling the shots for the Labour Party that's the issue.Whether you like Momentum’s objectives or not, they are hugely responsible for a surge in membership which has resulted in the Labour Party now being the largest in members of any European political party. Representation of this support is a must, in any democracy and frankly, without it, Labour will again be victim to the Tories tactically entrenched power and our outdated electoral FPTP system, which the Tories have had ring fenced for years. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Quote from: BRMC_rover on February 11, 2019, 10:29:04 pmQuote from: Sprotyrover on February 11, 2019, 04:55:05 pmThe problem lies beyond Corbyn it's the crazy fringe group Momentum which is calling the shots for the Labour Party that's the issue.Whether you like Momentum’s objectives or not, they are hugely responsible for a surge in membership which has resulted in the Labour Party now being the largest in members of any European political party. Representation of this support is a must, in any democracy and frankly, without it, Labour will again be victim to the Tories tactically entrenched power and our outdated electoral FPTP system, which the Tories have had ring fenced for years. Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkAye. But for all the impressive membership figures (and they ARE impressive, albeit that they've shrunk by 150k this past 12 months) there's some context needed here. Labour's membership is about 1/60th of the voting electorate. It is about 1/25th of what you'd need to get the slimmest of majorities. So Labour needs to appeal far beyond that committed membership. And faced with the worst PM, worst Govt and biggest national crisis since the War, at a time in the electoral cycle when the opposition usually surges, Labour has gone down by 5-10 points in the polls this last year.
CroftyFair points. The issue is though that it's no good complaining about the media. Every Labour leader has to deal with a generally unfriendly media. The question is what you do about it. My take has always been that a Labour leader has to be better than a Tory leader to survive. Better in terms of not making gaffes, giving free hits, losing support that shouldn't be lost. On those scores, Corbyn has had a shockingly bad 18 months. Yes he proved himself an excellent campaigner in 2017, and yes, May proved herself to be barely a functioning human being. But those factors are baked in now. They won't shock the electorate when the next election comes (and it won't be this year). Those factors are baked in and the electorate overwhelmingly prefer the worst Prime Minister of modern times to Corbyn. It's profoundly depressing and it can't even be discussed, because he's beyond criticism.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 11, 2019, 08:34:23 pmAnd that's why Labour won't win the next Election Crofty. Momentum convincing themselves that a tag line like that will have widespread appeal because it appeals to them. That's why no-one in Momentum will countenance talking about Corbyn having approval ratings amongst the electorate in general, measured in the teens. Because his approval rating amongst them is measured in the 90s. So of COURSE he's the right leader.I agree with most of what you say, but being a self proclaimed Corbynista it's difficult to take the approval ratings at face value when media outlets like the mail can publish such a hatchet job. Now, I'm not saying Corbyn's poor approval ratings are SOLELY down to the media, but after nearly a 4 year campaign of throwing so much mud you would expect something to stick. That being said I do think that when May's Premiership blows ip in the spring and she is forced to call a general election I do think that despite the low approval ratings despite the 'un-encouraging polls', Corbyn will win.
Quote from: wilts rover on February 11, 2019, 10:14:00 pmThat's a very brave prediction Billy. I predict the only way there wont be an election this year is if we crash out on 29th March. Because if May gets her deal through with a backstop the DUP will bring her down and if she gets it through with a CU, the ERG will.It should keep the Daily Fail in newsprint for a while...Not a chance in a million that the ERG would force an election. Why on earth would they?And you're missing lots of other alternative outcomes.
If there is another general election perhaps we could have a competition running alongside it guessing which elected MP's would be the most likely to vote in the House of Commons against the wishes of the people in their constituency which they were elected to represent.