Polls narrowing

[BillyStubbsTears]

10 days ago, the average of the last 5 polls was

Con 43
Lab 29.4

Now it's
Con 42
Lab 33.2

There's not a chance in a million of a Labour majority. But the general consensus is if the gap is down to 5-7 points, Johnson won't have a majority either.

All to play for.

[Donnywolf]

... and (broken record) 42 % of the vote would get him / them 260 - 270 ish Seats which would not be anywhere near the balance of Seats held by the rest if we used a PR type vote 

One for the future but lets hope (well I personally hope) for a neck and neck hung Parliament so after all Pinocchios wheeling dealing conspiring and evading we end up almost as we were when he called the Election he did not want

[Padge_DRFC]

Lib Dem to labour is the shift probably. They're having a poor campaign. Stopping Brexit completely was just stupid from them. People's vote or honour it.

[Donnywolf]

Agree

They missed a trick by panicking with Johnson desperately trying to "engineer" a GE. Looked like he had run out of methods when Swinson threw him a lifeline and probably handed us all B****t after all

All they had to do (after Pinocchio had got his deal through HOC) was to say OK OK we will go ahead and pass the deal again if you put it to the people for a confirmatory vote

a Your Deal
b Remain

We could have now been relaxing / luxuriating with a decision made once and for all and "getting it" all sorted

[scawsby steve]

Agree

They missed a trick by panicking with Johnson desperately trying to "engineer" a GE. Looked like he had run out of methods when Swinson threw him a lifeline and probably handed us all B****t after all

All they had to do (after Pinocchio had got his deal through HOC) was to say OK OK we will go ahead and pass the deal again if you put it to the people for a confirmatory vote

a Your Deal
b Remain

We could have now been relaxing / luxuriating with a decision made once and for all and "getting it" all sorted

It's OK Wolfie; we'll be getting it all sorted very soon.

[Herbert Anchovy]

Lib Dem to labour is the shift probably. They're having a poor campaign. Stopping Brexit completely was just stupid from them. People's vote or honour it.

One of the odd things about this GE has been seeing people change their political allegiances. A relative who’s lifelong Labour is now voting Brexit Party and another fella at work who’s voted (and been a member of) the Lib Dems since 1992 is now moving to Labour.

[scawsby steve]

Lib Dem to labour is the shift probably. They're having a poor campaign. Stopping Brexit completely was just stupid from them. People's vote or honour it.

One of the odd things about this GE has been seeing people change their political allegiances. A relative who’s lifelong Labour is now voting Brexit Party and another fella at work who’s voted (and been a member of) the Lib Dems since 1992 is now moving to Labour.

Good observation Herbert. Most lifelong Labour voters I know, many of them ex-miners like myself, say they will either be voting BP or abstaining.

Some of them say they won't ever vote Labour again in their lives.

[Donnywolf]

Could be a right mess

I have postal voted for Labour in Don Valley despite the present MP being one I do not agree with in any way shape or form

Pundits / pollsters say she is in danger of losing her seat but surely she is a shoe in ?

There will be all those who voted Leave and who will reward her loyalty to their views in Parliament AND those like me who still want to Remain and MUST vote to ensure the Tories do not oust Labour in the one Constituency I can vote in

[wilts rover]

There was a fascinating poll came out the other day from Kantar

CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 32% (+5)
LD: 14% (-2)

it was fascinating because they showed their unweighted polling (Billy & I discussed this the other day) which was

CON: 36% (-4)
LAB: 35% (+5)
LD: 16% (-)

They also say that 20% of the public are still undecided.

There is not a chance in a million of a Labour majority ehh....

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199321058488266763

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

I pointed out to you at the time that you had totally misread that poll.

Those 36-35-16 figures were NOT the unweighted raw data. Those were the weighted proportion of their responders who had voted for each of the parties at the 2017 GE. They were showing that they were selecting and weighting in such a way that they had a representative sample in terms of previous votes.

It's bad enough that there's so much fakery coming from the other side without you inadvertently adding to it.

EDIT.

For the record my memory was wrong. We didn't talk about a Kantar poll, we talked about a ComRes one.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=274705.msg923104#msg923104

I haven't seen that Kantar one. I'll dig it out this weekend if I have time.

[wilts rover]

Worth a look Billy.

It doesn't mean the 'ordinary' polls are wrong - but it does show there is a lot more uncertainty around than the pollsters - or more accurately the media - are leading us to believe.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You DO accept that your man Leftie Stats was totally wrong about that ComRes poll?

[wilts rover]

Yes I don't think that ComRes poll was showing the unweighted results (as you rightly pointed out) unlike this Kantar one. Which makes this Kantar one a lot more interesting. The data tables are on the link.

[Sprotyrover]

Yes I don't think that ComRes poll was showing the unweighted results (as you rightly pointed out) unlike this Kantar one. Which makes this Kantar one a lot more interesting. The data tables are on the link.

There is only one poll that counts it's on the 12 th December.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Still narrowing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200824832042164225

Getting close to Hung Parliament territory.

[scawsby steve]

Still narrowing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200824832042164225

Getting close to Hung Parliament territory.

Who on Earth are Britain Elects? Some of those tweets smack of desperation.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They collate the polling results from different companies. That a problem SS? Collecting facts?

[scawsby steve]

They collate the polling results from different companies. That a problem SS? Collecting facts?

Then why are they different to all the other polls, who by the way are collecting facts?

[selby]

Steve let it be, they had no sleep last night after the polls yesterday, let them have a bit of an uplift.

[BillyStubbsTears]

What in God's name are you on about?

That Twitter feed collects and publishes EVERY poll.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BST is correct it does.  The thing with polls is one tells you next to nothing often. But grouped together they show trends. Watch the trends not them in isolation.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Which is precisely what I've been saying BFYP.

Two weeks ago, the typical average of the polls had the Tories 12-13 points ahead.

The last six have had Tory leads of
11
7
11
7
8
6

No matter what you think of individual polls, the trend is clearly that Labour is narrowing the gap. If that continues at that rate for the final 10-11 days, we're looking at a hung parliament.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

You might want to add tonight's 15 then which in itself was a slight narrowing on before.

Of course it is an odd election so hard to read how it may fall in a lot of close seats thus as you say 1% movement could be all the difference.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep BFYP.

There's a 13 and a 15 tonight from the two pollsters who have been consistently giving the Tories very large leads. But as you say, the 15 has come down quite a way from 19 last week.

[wilts rover]

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

[bpoolrover]

Me
Personally will be glad when the whole thing is over, nothing much will change most people’s lives whoever wins,let’s just hope whatever the outcome our country becomes a better place

[Donnywolf]

Amen to that

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really.  The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far.  This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.

[Herbert Anchovy]

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really.  The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far.  This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.

Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.

[The Red Baron]

Some more trends from Britain Elects.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200862658515406849?s=20

Both Tories and Labour going up at the expense of the LDs and Brexit Party.