Polls narrowing

[The Red Baron]

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really.  The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far.  This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.

Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.

It wouldn't surprise me all that greatly if, in the event of a Hung Parliament, the LDs cut a deal with the Tories (Confidence and Supply rather than Coalition) on the condition that there is another Brexit Referendum, ie Johnson's Deal vs. Remain.

[Donnywolf]

That would suit me AND I can see it happening IF a big IF it ends hung

 

[wilts rover]

It would greatly surprise me if the Tories cut any deal with anyone that involves a 2nd referendum. Have you not read the posts by the Tory/Brexit supporters on this site they would go mad. The Tory Party would disintegrate.

If you are thinking of voting LD on that premise - get real lads/lassies - on both the LD's and Tories

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really.  The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far.  This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.

Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.

And ultimately this is why it wont happen. Even if labour get a sniff on a hung parliament the lib dems etc would never let them get half the things through. Labour need a majority to put things through, which they have next to no chance of.

[The Red Baron]

It would greatly surprise me if the Tories cut any deal with anyone that involves a 2nd referendum. Have you not read the posts by the Tory/Brexit supporters on this site they would go mad. The Tory Party would disintegrate.

If you are thinking of voting LD on that premise - get real lads/lassies - on both the LD's and Tories

You'd think so, but consider the alternatives. If the GE results in a Hung Parliament it's very unlikely that Johnson's Deal would get through Parliament unamended. Alternatively you could have a minority Labour Government, but Corbyn would then go and negotiate his own deal. Most Brexiteers would probably consider that to be a different flavour of Remain, and that would be put against Actual Remain in a Referendum.

At least a Tory-LD pact would allow the Tories to set the terms of the Referendum, ie Johnson's Deal (which the Tory Brexiteers seem prepared to stomach) vs. Remain.

All hypothetical of course, but not out of the question, I'll submit.

[BillyStubbsTears]

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.

Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.

Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.

Just saying like

Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really.  The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far.  This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.

Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.

She's doing because it's her only electoral possibility.

The LD's have (from memory) 20 of their top 25 targets in Tory held seats. So they need to attract centrist Tory Remain type voters. So she's appealing to them by saying she'd clip Corbyn's wings if the LDs end up supporting a minority Lab Govt.

On the moral side, if Lab get 36% of the vote and 240/650 seats, there is no way they have a mandate to carry out their most ambitious policies.

[SydneyRover]

"Jo Swinson says she won’t back Corbyn. But ultimately she’ll have to
Vernon Bogdanor
If there is a hung parliament, the Lib Dems will end up backing Labour. They know their supporters want a second referendum''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour

[Herbert Anchovy]

According to the latest data from Election Maps Uk (which collates data from 9 Opinion Polls) the Tory lead ranges from a high of 15 points to a low of 6 points.

It’ll be interesting to see how the estimated 3.2 million newly registered voters affect things.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The rolling poll average is still saying 10-11% gap. But that's still including several high ones from a week or two ago. The more recent ones have mostly narrowed to 7-9%.

As you say, the really interesting thing will be if they are accounting for the 2million under 35s who registered in the last week or so. If they are mainly Labour, (and all the polls says a big majority of under 35s are Lab supporters) that could really make a difference.

[Donnywolf]

Just read somewhere (maybe a different thread on here) that the Polls are always based on a certain age Group. Think it said 25 to 65

The writer said so that looks good for Labour because the 3.5 million "new" Voters will support Labour en masse

Looks a bit wishy washy for me. Theres only 1 Poll that counts as they say .... I will wait with bated breath for 10.01 PM on Dec 12th and hope to see David Dumbledore or someone similar saying " Ladies and Gentlemen the exit Polls say its as you were. A hung Parliament with the Tories being the biggest Party"

Then I will laugh like f*** and go to bed thinking of Swinson jumping into bed with Johnsons successor and refusing to go into a Coalition unless there is at least a Peoples vote

[wilts rover]

Interesting - SavantaComRes poll out just now

CON: 42% (=)
LAB: 36% (+4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (=)

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

[albie]

One poll is not enough, but the trend is Remainers returning to Labour.

Keep 30% of Leavers, and with the new voters on the roster it becomes much more likely for Labour to be the movers in a hung parliament.

No doubt stories like this in the Torygraph will keep some Tories at home:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10439030/Millionaire-Tory-MP-claimed-expenses-to-heat-stables.html

YouGove man needs to keep his stables warm....what's wrong with that?

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's down to those Remain supporters in Lab-Tory marginals who left Labour in their millions earlier this year and supported the LDs.

If they dig their heels in, Johnson is PM for 5 years.

And lifelong LD supporters too.

The stupidity of our electoral system, means that an LD supporter voting Labour in, say, Don Valley, is more likely to result in a hung Parliament and the LDs having a say in Govt than they would if that voter votes LD and let's the Tories win the seat and a majority. Truly a crazy system.

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

Not saying that one is right, because there have been several over the weekend with much bigger leads for the Tories.

But.

If it IS right, according to the Electoral Calculus website, we're in hung parliament territory again.
https://twitter.com/zimussolini/status/1204054015610408960

[Ldr]

Will Corbyn step down when labour fails to get a majority again?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I've no idea Ldr. Go and ask him.

[selby]

   If todays polls are correct the only thing narrowing will be the noose around Corbyn's neck.

[wilts rover]

   If todays polls are correct the only thing narrowing will be the noose around Corbyn's neck.

Do you see different polling to the rest of us selby?

This is todays ICM poll - highest Labour share with that particular pollster since January and a probable hung parliament

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 36% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

[Ldr]

Or Survation yesterday who have tended to be very accurate over the last few elections.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 11 (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

via @Survation, 05 - 07 Dec
Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D

[wilts rover]

But that was yesterday Selby said today's polls? What other poll has come out today Ldr?

[Ldr]

Apologies, the survation one was tweeted today at 00.09 😁

[Bentley Bullet]

Will Corbyn step down when labour fails to get a majority again?

He'll probably retire and pull the ladder up behind him.

[Bentley Bullet]

........And thank God Labour aren't in power!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Survation got the 2017 prediction pretty well done. But they were awful in the EU elections earlier this year.

Funny thing is, since the pollsters work to a 95% confidence that they have the parties' support right to within +/-3%, both Survation and ICM could be right.

Con 42-43.
Lab 33-34
LD 11-12

Would fit both of them. And that's about the average of the last couple of weeks.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aaand...there goes the grown up discussion for the evening.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BST that is where I think itll come out, about a 7% lead overall, labour are good at getting their core vote out and todsys poor press for the pm will help at the last minute.

[scawsby steve]

........And thank God Labour aren't in power!

And sing the National Anthem.

[DonnyOsmond]

BST that is where I think itll come out, about a 7% lead overall, labour are good at getting their core vote out and todsys poor press for the pm will help at the last minute.

What poor press?

Edit: my bad. Thought Labour had poor press. Couldn't find what had happened now.

[wilts rover]

YouGov MRP polling just out

CON: 339 (-20)
LAB: 231 (+20)
SNP: 41 (-2)
LD: 15 (+2)
OTH: 24 (-)

That's a 40 seat swing to Labour in a week - from fieldwork done last week before hospitalgate of course.

If 15 more seats swing on Thursday a certain Mr B Johnson may require new employment soon.

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1204521628589264896

[BillyStubbsTears]

And presumably that's not taking tactical voting into account.