John Curtis...wise words

[BillyStubbsTears]

"We should bear in mind, and maybe [Tory Party chairman] James Cleverly might want to bear this in mind when he tries to use a similar argument about Scotland... that actually the proportion of the electorate that has voted for either the Conservatives or the Brexit Party, at 47%, is rather less than the percentage of the electorate that voted for parties that are in favour of a second referendum.

So the truth is, we should remember that the reason why the Conservatives have won is, in the end, this decision has been made via an electoral system that exaggerates leads, and in a situation where, as a result of that, the Remain vote was fragmented and the Leave vote was concentrated.

There's nothing in this election result that suggests any change of mood or attitude towards Brexit from what was the position three years ago."

[Copps is Magic]

The polls have been pretty consistent for 2 years now on the matter: 48-50% would support remain in a second referendum with 42-44% supporting leave. The leave voted appears to have been just a historical moment.

[Campsall rover]

The polls have been pretty consistent for 2 years now on the matter: 48-50% would support remain in a second referendum with 42-44% supporting leave. The leave voted appears to have been just a historical moment.

Explain the General Election result then if that’s the case.

[selby]

Just guesswork, we will never know now,the remain side lost heavily last night  simple as that.
    Game over, in fact don't be surprised if the Tories now change the 5 year rule for government.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Read the OP Campsall.

[Copps is Magic]

Campsall, I'm going to have to interept that question mate, cos I don't quite know what your're asking me.

What I think you are referring to is the 47% figure BST quotes above. That is just a composite of conservative and brexit voters. They don't all suport brexit.

In fact, 39% of conservative voters in 2016 voted remain. (If evidence is anything to go by, this will infact be slightly higher today)

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just guesswork, we will never know now,the remain side lost heavily last night  simple as that.
    Game over, in fact don't be surprised if the Tories now change the 5 year rule for government.

Selby.

The Remain side lost heavily on seats. That's obvious and accepted. But read the OP. Significantly more people voted for parties offering Ref2 or revocation of A50 than voted for parties advocating immediate Brexit. That's not a matter for debate. It's a stone cold fact.

Now. Brexit is going to happen. That's a given. But do not fool yourself that there is a wave of public demand for it. That'd be a very big misreading of last night.

Anyway. As I say. Brexit is going to happen. If and when we get the economic consequences of that that I expect, own it. It is yours.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is fascinating.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1205481150988333057

That shows just how febrile the position could be come 2024.

There's a lot of votes looking for a home when Brexit has been and gone.

I take zero pleasure in saying this, but by 2024, we'll have had a decade and a half of significantly below par economic performance. And the Tories will not have Brexit to deflect away that fact.

[roversdude]

Maybe part of the problem was labour would not categorically 100% come out as remain (or rather the leadership wouldn’t)

[Copps is Magic]

This is fascinating.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1205481150988333057

That supports what I said above. 66% of Conservative remain voters, stuck with the party, even though they have a clear leave policy/strategy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I thought that RD, but I think last night proves that the problem was deeper than that. Sure, they might have picked up another 4-5% from the LDs and Greens, but that wouldn't have compensated for the damage Farage did to Labour in the North. Might have tipped another 10-15 seats but I don't think it would have done much more.

Labour's problem was that whichever way it tipped on Brexit, it would get hit from the other side. As it was, by obfuscating, it lost votes both ways. The key thing was that, even if you argue that Labour had popular non-Brexit policies, they weren't enough to stop those losses.

Maybe with a more effective and less damaged leader they might have been, but we'll never know that. 

[selby]

  Billy, in spite of your and others trying to get Brexit to not be the main subject of the election, It was.
  Only one party were clear on their stance to enact  the Brexit vote without dithering if they won the election.
  The rules of our general Elections are well known as first past the post. there fore everyone should have known the consequences of how they cast their vote, that it would not be proportional representation, that your vote goes to a representative of a single constituency MP, and the party who has the most MPs  win the election.
   So totting up other parties numbers, any more ifs or buts .are  just make believe, they don't count, are coincidental.
  Labour are going to have to completely reinvent themselves if they are not to slip even further back in future elections. Their new power is in the cities, with large immigrant populations, a reluctance to admit that their influx of Muslim and Black communities have alienated  their Jewish traditions, and are far removed from the traditional heavy Industry areas that are now regenerating with new estates, where the people don't even think Labour any more.
   Every mining village around Doncaster has now got what could be called a new village and an old, new estates of private houses, people travelling to Leeds, York, Sheffield  etc. to work. The local working men's clubs closed, replaced by trendy pubs and restaurants, probably a car ride away. The local shopping areas replaced by big super markets or order on line.
  People are more individual, don't work together at the pit or big factories like the Harvesters, so don't think alike, don't converse with each other about politics, no longer live in each others pockets, and basically do the same things.
  They have left Labour behind, they don't think they are labour people.
   

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

I take all that on board.

It doesn't change the fact that, as the OP makes clear, there's very little change in the overall votes for Brexit and non-Brexit positions. That was the point I was making.

As for the changes in the North, yes I accept that. But once again, what last night wasn't was a surge of new votes for the Tories.

Labour lost those seats. The Tories didn't surge to win them. It's Labour's job to win them back, but they don't need to win votes back from the Tories.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Johnson's currently talking as though the Tories won millions of votes from Labour.

For the record, the Tories increased their vote by 1.4%. Just a bit more than the Greens.

I assume he doesn't actually believe that. Because he's making a serious error if he does.

[Filo]

Those BP votes will return back to Labour after Brexit

[glosterred]

Those BP votes will return back to Labour after Brexit

Will they? you know this as a fact how?

[Filo]

Those BP votes will return back to Labour after Brexit

Will they? you know this as a fact how?

Nothing is a fact, that is my opinion, theres no need to be bombastic, you got the result you wanted be gracious and enjoy

[DonnyOsmond]

Those BP votes will return back to Labour after Brexit

Will they? you know this as a fact how?

Because he has a f*cking time machine.

[bpoolrover]

I think a lot will return immediately if the new labour leader distances himself from corbyn McDonnell and momentum, I have several labour friends who lost time I said this was ridiculed that they didn’t represent the voters nationally when they are the exact people that labour have lost, none and I mean none will go back to labour unless there are big changes

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Not so sure they will, if labour doesnt change quickly it wont be in a position to win. However, it's now got 5 years to make the change. Also dont forget the electoral boundaries are pretty likely to change and favour the tories in future as now they can implement the last proposed changes.

[glosterred]

Those BP votes will return back to Labour after Brexit

Will they? you know this as a fact how?

Nothing is a fact, that is my opinion, theres no need to be bombastic, you got the result you wanted be gracious and enjoy

Oh I am enjoying it, immensely

[GazLaz]

This ended up being a second referendum, only this time it was on a constituency basis. If that had been the case in the actual referendum the results would have been like today’s.

[wilts rover]

The problem is, as it has always been, what sort of Brexit does the country want? What sort of future relationship does the country want? That's why it hasn't been resolved until now - not enough people could agree on the same answer.

Now Johnson has the majority he wanted to get the Brexit deal he wants. But will it be the Brexit deal that people voted for yesterday?

He is going to let somebody down. The closer to the existing situation the less damaging it will be economically - but the less it will feel like Brexit - as Farage will not doubt tell us.

The more distant the relationship the more it will feel like Brexit - and the less money he will have to improve public services or help any area hit by Brexit.

That I think is what Curtice is getting at in Billy's OP. There was no big public push to get behind Brexit - just enough to get Johnson the majority he wants to carry it out. So he needs to choose carefully what 'it' is.

Choosing carefully not being traits Mr Johnson has been noted for in his career to date.

[Not Now Kato]

Those BP votes will return back to Labour after Brexit

Will they? you know this as a fact how?

Nothing is a fact, that is my opinion, theres no need to be bombastic, you got the result you wanted be gracious and enjoy

Oh I am enjoying it, immensely

Including what it means to the homeless and those reliant on foodbanks?
 
What a strange form of enjoyment.

[foxbat]

the sort of enjoyment that would fit in with a nastly little racist Brexitland in permanent  decline.

[scawsby steve]

the sort of enjoyment that would fit in with a nastly little racist Brexitland in permanent  decline.

Racist? Who's racist?

[drfchound]

the sort of enjoyment that would fit in with a nastly little racist Brexitland in permanent  decline.

I can’t see anything racist in glosters post.

[Not Now Kato]

I’m reminded of an old Turkish proverb….

The Forest was shrinking, but the Trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.
 

[scawsby steve]

I’m reminded of an old Turkish proverb….

The Forest was shrinking, but the Trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.

What's that to do with accusations of racism?

[DonnyOsmond]

Boris is a racist tbf.