Coronavirus

[Pancho Regan]

I wonder why we hear so little about what's happening in Russia regarding the Coronavirus?
And why they have so few deaths?
Only 58 so far.

[SydneyRover]

Another health minister tests positive

''Israel health minister, who claims coronavirus is ‘divine punishment’ for homosexuality, tests positive for COVID-19''

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/04/07/israel-health-minister-coronavirus-punishment-homosexuality-positive-covid-19-yaakov-litzman/

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Today shows further the problem with stats analysis.  Scotland reported 2 deaths yesterday, 74 today.

[selby]

  Pancho, just late last week that 58 number was 2

[ian1980]

Figures for last 24hrs, although they have confirmed the weekend effect meaning that Tuesdays figures are inflated

England = 758
Scotland = 74
Wales = 19
Northern Ireland = 3

[Dutch Uncle]

Today shows further the problem with stats analysis.  Scotland reported 2 deaths yesterday, 74 today.

Nicola Sturgeon spoke about this on Sunday and said they were having problems with counting (2 dead reported Sunday and Monday) and that this would be reflected in Tuesday's figures. So they have averaged about 26 per day for the last three days. I guess ther may be more backlog in tomorrow's figures because for the three days before Sunday they reported 50, 46 and 46. 

[Colemans Left Hook]

I wonder why we hear so little about what's happening in Russia regarding the Coronavirus?
And why they have so few deaths?
Only 58 so far.

what i do for you

they have facial recognition cameras in Moscow as well etc etc

https://www.france24.com/en/20200402-putin-extends-russia-s-stay-off-work-order-through-april-to-curtail-virus

"According to a survey by the Levada Center, only 16 percent of Russians fully trust official information about the coronavirus, while 24 percent said they did not trust it at all."

https://www.france24.com/en/20200330-moscow-goes-into-lockdown-urges-other-russian-regions-to-take-measures-to-curb-coronavirus-spread

[Pancho Regan]

I wonder why we hear so little about what's happening in Russia regarding the Coronavirus?
And why they have so few deaths?
Only 58 so far.

"According to a survey by the Levada Center, only 16 percent of Russians fully trust official information about the coronavirus, while 24 percent said they did not trust it at all."

.... and 100% of Pancho Regan doesn't trust it either.

[wilts rover]

Anyone analyising daily NHS mortality figures as a measure of how bad spread of the virus is give up now. By 27th March they were 80% to low. 80%!

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

[rtid88]

Seen videos today of Doncaster Town centre busy... What is wrong with people... This I can see only getting worse over the Bank Holiday weekend! 

[Copps is Magic]

Anyone analyising daily NHS mortality figures as a measure of how bad spread of the virus is give up now. By 27th March they were 80% to low. 80%!

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

I would a) see the explanation on the previous page of this thread and b) read the dicussion under that twitter post. What they are showing is essentially the delay in reporting the correct number of deaths.

You are correct anyway, its stupid to microread the daily data. Let's remind ourselves the only real important aspect to this whole thing is keeping the numbers under what hospitals can cope with. Thats the whole point.

[Copps is Magic]

Seen videos today of Doncaster Town centre busy... What is wrong with people... This I can see only getting worse over the Bank Holiday weekend! 

What are they busy doing out of interest? Aren't the shops/restaurants meant to be closed?

[ravenrover]

Is it market day on a Tuesday in Donny still?

[rtid88]

Apparently all poundshops are open, Savers, Boots, Crawshaws, Sainsburys.... Utter idiots!

[River Don]

Apparently all poundshops are open, Savers, Boots, Crawshaws, Sainsburys.... Utter idiots!

To be fair Sainsbury and Crawshaw are food retailers and Boots is a pharmacy, so all essential services, particularly for those living close to the centre of town.

[adamtherover]

Seen videos today of Doncaster Town centre busy... What is wrong with people... This I can see only getting worse over the Bank Holiday weekend! 

What are they busy doing out of interest? Aren't the shops/restaurants meant to be closed?

I think the food market bit is open
..

[BillyStubbsTears]

Anyone analyising daily NHS mortality figures as a measure of how bad spread of the virus is give up now. By 27th March they were 80% to low. 80%!

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

I would a) see the explanation on the previous page of this thread and b) read the dicussion under that twitter post. What they are showing is essentially the delay in reporting the correct number of deaths.

You are correct anyway, its stupid to microread the daily data. Let's remind ourselves the only real important aspect to this whole thing is keeping the numbers under what hospitals can cope with. Thats the whole point.

Precisely why you have to be very careful how you present the data.

The two data sets show little difference (in the data published to date) when you present them the rate of increase of deaths vs the total number of deaths. They will show huge differences when you present them as Giles has done there. Clearly, whether the data is presented from the times series of when they are reported, or when they happened, it doesn't change the fact that in the pre-suppression phase, the doubling time of deaths is around 3-4 days.

[Nudga]

Apparently all poundshops are open, Savers, Boots, Crawshaws, Sainsburys.... Utter idiots!

I went to get our meat from the butchers in the market.

I take it I'm an utter idiot?

[Copps is Magic]

Apparently all poundshops are open, Savers, Boots, Crawshaws, Sainsburys.... Utter idiots!

I went to get our meat from the butchers in the market.

I take it I'm an utter idiot?

Its probably a lot safer than a confined space like a supermarket to be honest.

[wilts rover]

Covid-19 is not the flu

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1247480598194573312/photo/1

[selby]

 France have declared 11,059 new cases today with 1,417 deaths bringing their total to 10,059 not good.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They are clearly still mopping up the numbers from outside hospitals. There is no way they have suddenly started having double the number of confirmed cases.

[rtid88]

Apparently all poundshops are open, Savers, Boots, Crawshaws, Sainsburys.... Utter idiots!

I went to get our meat from the butchers in the market.

I take it I'm an utter idiot?

I'm talking about the groups of idiots crowded around outside of the French gate that I referred to on the videos I have seen....
The videos I have seen on FB basically just looked like a normal day in Doncaster there were loads of people in groups...

[albie]

China reporting very high levels of infection without symptoms;
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

If this is correct, and applies to the UK also, it makes the interpretation of the data very unreliable in assessing where we are in the progress of the virus.

[selby]

  No new cases reported in Doncaster or Barnsley and only one each in Sheffield and Rotherham, so good news for South Yorkshire if it can be kept up.

[selby]

  Total cases in Greater London rose to 13,397 a rise of 721 or the same as yesterday 5.38%

[SydneyRover]

Two very different approaches to business.

million motorists are in for an unexpected cash bonus as one insurance company is reimbursing €100million to policyholders.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Covid-19-French-insurance-firm-set-to-refund-100m

Life insurance giant TAL has backflipped on plans to deny payouts to Australians at a higher risk of dying from COVID-19, after the ABC revealed the company was applying exclusions for some new customers — including frontline health workers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-08/tal-backflips-coronavirus-exclusion-clauses-for-life-insurance/12130484

[BillyStubbsTears]

BBC's Head of Statistics tonight.

"For weeks up until Friday's figures, the number of deaths had been doubling every three and a half days. Had that trend continued, we would have seen close to 1,400 deaths today."

Amen to that. The doubling time certainly appears to have started increasing, thankfully, after barely moving for the first few weeks after we recorded the first deaths. Fingers crossed.

[SydneyRover]

There appears to be in lots of countries those that have taken the disease to be just like the flu and then a lack of leadership in some countries such as Australia where the PM was telling everyone that he was going to watch his football team on the weekend despite medical advice that we should be staying home to those that think none of the safeguards apply to them. Things are changing thankfully

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's a reason why this 3-4 day doubling time of total deaths in the pre-suppression period is so important.

This has been the experience in countries all round the world. Everywhere that the virus has taken hold has seen the reported deaths double every 3-4 days until isolation policies have started to bring that down.

Doesn't matter what the quality of the health service is like.
Doesn't matter what the standard of data collection is like.
Doesn't matter what the age demographic is like.
Doesn't matter what the pre-existing health of the population is like.
Doesn't matter whether the epidemic started early or late in that country.

In the early stages, the total deaths doubled every 3-4 days.

Think about what that means.

If the deaths have doubled every 3-4 days, regardless of the very different conditions in each country, that can only mean one thing.

The number of infections doubles every 3-4 days.

And that knowledge of what the rate of doubling of deaths is, is crucial, because it means that the epidemiology modellers will now have a handle on what we can expect to happen as we eventually come out of lockdown.

If we release the lockdown, we can expect the number of infections to start increasing again at something like that rate, or hopefully a bit slower (because the shock of how rapidly the virus took off first time will mean that people who poo-poohed it first time round will now not be hugging and shaking hands and sneezing in supermarkets and forgetting to wash their hands). So we can judge when to start releasing the lockdown, knowing that there will be another increase in cases, but hopefully with a better prepared health service.