Coronavirus

[Bentley Bullet]

Correct, Hound, although I believe his house is in Somerset. Maybe Wilts will inform us of the truth.

I believe the farm crosses the Somerset/Devon border BB - you can find out where it is if you google it, I wouldn't be so foolish as to publish someones home address on here. Very nice part of the world tho.

He was in London on 17th March as he was in a tv studio saying he would keep going to the pub. This of course being the day after his son has said not to go to the pub and not to travel unless it was essential.

When asked he refused to say when exactly he traveled to Exmoor.

But is his main home in London?

[Metalmicky]

Well he can do one then.

   I shall try to get that monkey off my back... 

[albie]

Back to the virus, and the extent of under reporting is disturbing;
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

The media need to start reflecting this much more in their coverage.

[Metalmicky]

Back to the virus, and the extent of under reporting is disturbing;
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960

The media need to start reflecting this much more in their coverage.

Two things....

Did you read the alternative comments below..?

Do you not think the drama being outplayed in the media isn't sufficient..?

[drfchound]

Well he can do one then.

That......was very funny.
Made me laugh.

[albie]

Metal Micky,

Yes....which comment are you talking about?
Giles is an FT Economist, not a health or epidemiological expert.

No, the media coverage is confused and misleading.
Often a story is a rapid response to new data release without context, and so is likely to mislead folk who do not understand the gaps in the data.

[Metalmicky]

Metal Micky,

Yes....which comment are you talking about?
Giles is an FT Economist, not a health or epidemiological expert.

No, the media coverage is confused and misleading.
Often a story is a rapid response to new data release without context, and so is likely to mislead folk who do not understand the gaps in the data.

Which part of 'under reporting' were you referring to then - linking something saying the reporting was disturbing suggested you were in agreement with the link...?

I agree the media coverage is confused and misleading - and I would say a little over dramatic at times... CV-19 is here with us and terrible, but the dramatic reporting at times is shocking... in my opinion.

[SydneyRover]

Reporting of facts is almost always a problem which has evolved into a chess game with oppposing spin doctors.

Has the general public got to a point where they would prefer not to know, daily newspaper sale appears to support that with the highest sales acheived by those with the lowest factual content.

News saturation can be blamed for part of this as the media outlets compete for audience and clicks. Most media understands that without some sort of vision, a photo or video the audience will be attacted to something shiny elsewhere which is why we have bizarre footage of reporters standing in front of hospitals etc long after the patient has been discharged. The name of the game is get it out now and worry about the content later.

[SydneyRover]

Case in hand about the media and reporting, Patel, is she doing something so nefarious that it is better she an important government minister hides away rather than admit to what she is up to. It may have been something as innocent as having a cold be we are not allowed to know about it? we don't actually have to know about it but the stupidity of the situation is that the first reaction to a question is to say nothing or lie, why couldn't her press secretary say something at the time at the very least?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Back to Campbell's article, it is a matter of national.importance that we have a) politicians who are honest, open and competent and b) journalists who hold them to the necessary standards and publicize it if they fall short.

Last month Johnson said we had a target of doing 250,000 tests per day "soon". Last week Hancock gave a firm pledge that we would get to 100,000 tests by the end of this month. It's 10 April today and we did 19,000 test yesterday.

It is simply unacceptable for those in charge to stand in front of the nation in the middle of a crisis like this, make numbers up and then not be held to account. But they aren't being held to account because the journalists at these daily briefings are simply useless.

[SydneyRover]

It makes it even more contemptuous that Hancock was relying on unproven testing to make this figure work and then makes a public appeal for industry to develop such a test. I know they are under stress but it's unbelievable such easily disproved statements are made in the first place, it's as though some behind the scenes tyrant is threatening him/them to say something at least.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Latest graph by the way.

Three comments.

1) Our trend is definitely being affected by the lower-than-trend results reported on Sundays and Mondays. We are getting a regular bounce where we seem to be doing better than trend, then worse than trend as the numbers are caught up over the next few days. Hands up from me. I misread this a while ago and I disagreed with CiM, who said we were following the Spain trend. On this graph, we were in the pessimistic part of the bounce at the time, and I argued that we were doing a good bit worse than Spain (as we appear to be tonight). I think, when the lower-than-trend numbers come in over the next few days, we will be seen to be pretty much bang on the Spain trend, just as CiM said.

2) China's figures look more and more hokey, the more data comes in from other countries. Other countries have blips and peaks and troughs, but if you screw your eyes up, the overall trends are clearly gently upsloping curves. China seems to be more or less three straight lines, with a few blips. That's what I'd expect if the numbers had been not-very-skillfully fiddled, with a bit of randomness chucked in.

3) America. Phew...

[Colemans Left Hook]

According to his website he:

lives in Southwell near Newark (his constituency) and in London.

https://robertjenrick.com/about-robert/

His contact information on the Parliament website is Southwell.

https://members.parliament.uk/member/4320/contact

I can't see any reference to the £1.2mill Grade 1 listed 17th century manor in Herefordshire although it sounds very nice.

I do know he claims £2k per month for the house in Southwell but I am not sure which of the London properties he resides in, the £3 mill Westminster townhouse or the £2 mill Marleybone flat, but it does seems his main home is the one he is not living in.
I can't see any reference to the Grade 1 listed 17th century manor in Herefordshire

right CLH has looked into this 

He only rents the "property" in Southwell so the above statement "I do know he claims £2k per month for the house in Southwell " is presumably terminology for renting  ?   

So it's game over folks on that angle

Yes he does does "appreciate" Listed Buildings 

here are his Early Day Motions

https://members.parliament.uk/member/4320/earlydaymotions

and what do we have here ?

https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/47735/wentworth-woodhouse-in-rotherham-south-yorkshire

 WENTWORTH WOODHOUSE IN ROTHERHAM, SOUTH YORKSHIRE
EDM #887

 Tabled 18 March 2015
2014-15 Session
That this House commends the current plans to secure the future of one of the grandest stately homes in England, Wentworth Woodhouse in South Yorkshire, by placing it in a charitable trust and opening it to the public; acknowledges the exceptional splendour of this house and recognises the work already carried out in restoring parkland, lakes, monuments and temples, as well as repairs to the house itself; underlines the huge potential stimulus to economic regeneration in South Yorkshire; and calls on the Government and the National Heritage Memorial Fund to recognise the imperative to give strong and urgent support to these efforts.

He hadn't been an MP for a year before he proposed this EDM  look closely at the ratio of Conservative (or lack of) to Labour signatories

Eye Manor was only a 4 Bedroom house back in 2014 when he put it on the market for a price of £1,300,000

"4 bedroom house for sale
Guide Price
£1,300,000
Eye, Leominster, Herefordshire"

It was not sold and taken off the market this was around the time he became an MP

 quote from wikipedia

"He is credited with saving the historic Grade I listed house Wentworth Woodhouse near Rotherham, when he persuaded the Chancellor Philip Hammond to intervene at the eleventh hour and provide the funds needed to buy the property. He was subsequently described by the charity SAVE to be Parliament's Greatest Champion of Heritage.[citation needed"

"nice guy"

Technically should the Queen have stayed in London  ?

[roversdude]

Sure the Queen left pre lockdown CLH

[wilts rover]

He only rents the "property" in Southwell so the above statement "I do know he claims £2k per month for the house in Southwell " is presumably terminology for renting  ?   

That is correct. He claims £2000 per month from Parliamentary Expenses for the property in the constituency he represents, which he states on his website is where he lives, and is currently not living in.

Presumably he will still be claiming this rent on Parliamentary Expenses whilst still not living in the property throughout the duration of the lockdown?

https://www.mpsexpenses.info/#!/mp/669

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

He only rents the "property" in Southwell so the above statement "I do know he claims £2k per month for the house in Southwell " is presumably terminology for renting  ?   

That is correct. He claims £2000 per month from Parliamentary Expenses for the property in the constituency he represents, which he states on his website is where he lives, and is currently not living in.

Presumably he will still be claiming this rent on Parliamentary Expenses whilst still not living in the property throughout the duration of the lockdown?

https://www.mpsexpenses.info/#!/mp/669

Well unless he isnt paying the rent?  Granted he is well off but it is part of his job entitlement.

[drfchound]

Wilts, people can’t just decide not to pay their rent if they are not in a property for a while and then start paying it when they go back later.

[Copps is Magic]

Another graph, from the Netherlands. For those still doubting there is anything unusual going on.

[Copps is Magic]

I’m just waiting for someone to discredit that post selby and ask you the name of the virologist.

Well, not to dissapoint.

Here you go

Thing is, good science works on refutation, revision, criticism, review, corroboration, testing. Trust me, you have to be able to handle these things and challenge your own dissonances or you won't get far. And you can't have paranoia that if you post one piece of evidence someone will reply with something different. That's how it has to work.

Science is a beautiful thing - its basically one of the only things we have as the world falls on its arse. But some bad practices are going on, such as people picking one scientist's views and basing their opinions on just that one voice, or using that one voice to reinforce their own assumptions. (latter comment not aimed at anyone on here).

[ian1980]

Recorded deaths for the last 24hrs

823 = England
47 = Scotland
15 = NI

Still a high number but hopefully it’s starting to level off.

[BillyStubbsTears]

"And you can't have paranoia that if you post one piece of evidence someone will reply with something different. That's how it has to work."

Absolutely that is how science works. You postulate hypotheses about how the world works. And you check that against the evidence in front of you. And you are prepared to change your mind. That is why science is the greatest invention of humanity. It doesn't depend on faith or opinion or argument. It depends on checking ideas against facts. And the only ideas that survive are the ones that aren't contradicted by the facts.

The great quantum physicist Richard Feynman said "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment(1), it's wrong."

(1) Or any trustworthy evidence.


All that said, that's fine when you have the benefit of time to collect facts and compare them against theory. More often, like now, things are too messy or too rapidly changing for you to be able to definitively say that X is right and Y is wrong. So you make the best guess based on uncertain input. Always being prepared to change your mind as the evidence develops.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Recorded deaths for the last 24hrs

823 = England
47 = Scotland
15 = NI

Still a high number but hopefully it’s starting to level off.

Hopefully but it is impossible to tell. We know there is a dip below trend in reported deaths over the weekend. We'll not really know if we are at the peak until we get well past the weekend and see if we get numbers on Tues-Thurs that have stabilised or started to fall.

[ian1980]

Just noticed as well that the US had just under 2000 deaths in one day yesterday. Am I right in thinking they were a week or so behind us?

[BillyStubbsTears]

They were actually a day ahead of us going through 100 and 1000 deaths. But they are in big trouble. Their doubling rate is increasing at a far later time in the epidemic than that of any other developed country.

What do you expect when they are led by a man who said "It's just flu" and "A miracle will happen and it will vanish"?

And STILL people support him...

[wilts rover]

Wilts, people can’t just decide not to pay their rent if they are not in a property for a while and then start paying it when they go back later.

Errr, when did I say they could - or anything remotely similar?

[drfchound]

I’m just waiting for someone to discredit that post selby and ask you the name of the virologist.

Well, not to dissapoint.

Here you go

Thing is, good science works on refutation, revision, criticism, review, corroboration, testing. Trust me, you have to be able to handle these things and challenge your own dissonances or you won't get far. And you can't have paranoia that if you post one piece of evidence someone will reply with something different. That's how it has to work.

Science is a beautiful thing - its basically one of the only things we have as the world falls on its arse. But some bad practices are going on, such as people picking one scientist's views and basing their opinions on just that one voice, or using that one voice to reinforce their own assumptions. (latter comment not aimed at anyone on here).

Well cheers for that CiM but you haven’t really discredited Selby’s post.
I enjoyed reading that one of yours though.
There are plenty of posters on here who do put forward one point of view that they have seen though and expect everyone to take it as gospel.

[Metalmicky]

UK press conference coming up

It's being held by Home Secretary Priti Patel, Martin Hewitt, who is chair of the National Police Chiefs' Council, and Prof Stephen Powis, NHS England's medical director.

[Dutch Uncle]

Recorded deaths for the last 24hrs

823 = England
47 = Scotland
15 = NI

Still a high number but hopefully it’s starting to level off.

Hopefully but it is impossible to tell. We know there is a dip below trend in reported deaths over the weekend. We'll not really know if we are at the peak until we get well past the weekend and see if we get numbers on Tues-Thurs that have stabilised or started to fall.

Low numbers I know, but the number here in Northern Ireland is disappointing - the last 8 days have been 8,7,7,3,5,4,10 and now 15. We have been doing very well, but I think we are behind than the mainland by about 7-10 days. I have been hoping that with lockdown occurring earlier in our curve that we might avoid a spike, however small in absolute terms by comparison with the mainland. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Grown up politics requires an Opposition to forensically hold Government to account and to ask difficult questions.

God knows I am no fan of Corbyn but just look at this from a month ago, when we were still in Herd Immunity mode.

Think of the (absolutely correct) role he was playing in how democracy works.

And look at the dog's abuse he got in the replies.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1239257257466122247

[selby]

If anyone would like to search metro.co.uk/2020/04/10coronavirus-mutated-three-distinct-strains-spread-across-world-12536852/ I will let them try and discredit Dr Peter Foster Hound from Cambridge University.