Thoughts on form and the play offs

[BillyStubbsTears]

As things stand tonight, we need to I retake two sides and not get caught by Fleetwood if we are going to make the playoffs.

The two most vulnerable sides above us are Wycombe and Ipswich.

Both have 13 games to play.

From their last 13 games, Wycombe have got 14 points and Ipswich have 13. If they repeat that form till the end of the season, Wycombe finish on 67 and Ipswich on 62.

Fleetwood have 15 games left. In their last 15 games they have managed 22 points. If they repeat that form, they end up on 70 points.

So, given our GD, if those forms continue, we could make the play-offs with 22 points from the last 14 games.
P14 W6 D4 L4.

Entirely in our hands.

[anton123]

I was thinking same and I believe we can pip Wycombe and Ipswich if any plus we play them both at home so it’s on

[RoversAlias]

Aye, looking at the results and table tonight I looked at Wycombe and thought "we've got to take them" - of course we play them soon.

The other one may be more difficult as I think they're all well capable of good runs, if not on them already. It will be tough but we have as good a chance as any of the sides in the mix. I'd say everyone down to 12th will still feel they have a chance but the games will soon start to run out for those sides further back than us. Hopefully we can stay in the mix.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Burton and Gillingham are effectively out of it. I cannot see any way that fewer than 70 points will secure 6th place. So they'd need a bare minimum of 27 points from their last 14 games.

P14 W8 D3 L3.

Neither of them are good enough to get that sort of form.

Oxford could hit 70 points with.

P15 W7 D4 L4.

But they are currently a shadow of the team they were before Xmas and I don't see them pulling that form out the hat.

So I'd say top 9 are gunning for the play-offs.

[RoversAlias]

You say that, and I'm inclined to agree, but teams do surprise from this stage of the season and in fact, you look at Gillingham's form and see (well I do, at least) that they are showing signs of being capable. But of course it would be  a huge task which is why I said they have a chance, and try the games run out very quickly if they cock up in the coming weeks.

They're unbeaten in the league since before we lost to them in the FA Cup, with a record of 5 wins and 7 draws making 22 points from 12 games. If they replicated that exactly for the next dozen, they'd have 65 points with two to play, surely enough to still at least be in the mathematical conversation.

Steve Evans has got them playing very effectively, much as I loathe the man, and they still have five of the bottom six to play too. So I'm not writing them off yet.

Burton haven't won in five games but won five out of six before that, albeit largely against sides in the bottom 8. I don't really see them making the top six but if they went on a run now of wins they could hit 60 points by the time we meet them at the end of March and still have a shot. Would say it's slim though.

Oxford, nobody should write them off with 15 games to play and only five points separating them from the top six. They've lost Fosu and Baptiste which is a blow, like Burton having lost Boyce, but like Burton they have an excellent manager and they do have a talented squad. Only 1 win in 7 games though, that is ominous. If they replicated form up to the last two games (since I did that with Gillingham) with their form over the last 13 they'd sit on 64 points (5W, 4D, 4L) and probably be still in mathematical contention...and they finish the season against Tranmere and Bolton.

Oxford's form is the sticking point for my assertions with them, but if they win their game in hand on us they are exactly where we are. And nobody here is writing us off of a top six push yet.

None of this is scientific, and I do think your method of predicting the points totals is one with merit BST, but I do think it is too early to write off anyone in the top 12 from Play Off contention. As I said in my previous post the games soon run out for the sides we've discussed here if they slip into (or continue) poor form. But I will stand by my opinion that fans of the teams directly behind us should still believe in their top six chances, however slim, for a while longer yet. And I can definitely see statistical reasons why Gillingham still have more than a shout despite being 11th. That will all change if we thrash them on Saturday, which I'd love us to do.

(TL;DR: I'm always wary of the formbook and insomnia is a menace)

[Alan Southstand]

Fleetwood had Evans sent off last night - a straight red. That may affect them for their next 3, at least.

We will have to improve a lot to beat Gillingham, based on what I watched last night.

[Chris Black come back]

Good away win for Gillingham last night.

Would be happy with draw on Saturday.

[drfchound]

As things stand tonight, we need to I retake two sides and not get caught by Fleetwood if we are going to make the playoffs.

The two most vulnerable sides above us are Wycombe and Ipswich.

Both have 13 games to play.

From their last 13 games, Wycombe have got 14 points and Ipswich have 13. If they repeat that form till the end of the season, Wycombe finish on 67 and Ipswich on 62.

Fleetwood have 15 games left. In their last 15 games they have managed 22 points. If they repeat that form, they end up on 70 points.

So, given our GD, if those forms continue, we could make the play-offs with 22 points from the last 14 games.
P14 W6 D4 L4.

Entirely in our hands.

Not strictly entirely in our hands.
Other clubs, like Ipswich or Wycombe for example, could recover from their bad run and collect more points in the next fifteen games than they did in the last fifteen.
Still much to play for for all the clubs around us.

[Spud]

Saturday will be interesting, a lot of the teams mentioned playing each other !

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

For us the form is decent. Performances not so I would say but we have dug in well which is not a bad trait.  Play offs will be a tough ask and we are probably still a bit off promotion imo. Building for next year is perhaps more.important.

[drfchound]

The problem with that BFYP is that we will probably have to start again with a different group of loan players.
Ok, we might be lucky enough to sign one or two of them.

[DearneValleyRover]

Personally I would say that overall we are not good enough at present, we make silly mistakes at the back and aren’t clinical enough in front of goal. It’s fine margins though. I do believe the one thing we have in our favour is the number of away games left, I think our style of play is more suited to counter attacking, at home we are closed down too quickly, away not so much giving us space to play.
Really not sure if we can make it but we will finish no lower than 9th in my opinion

[IDM]

Although, DVR, we have played with better quality earlier in the season, so in theory we could go up a gear or two.?

[DearneValleyRover]

Although, DVR, we have played with better quality earlier in the season, so in theory we could go up a gear or two.?

I do hope so IDM, like I stated it’s fine margins. Stop the silly mistakes at the back and they are just that and be more clinical in front of goal, we could and should have been 2 up before we scored and I believe not only will we make the playoffs but do so comfortably. I just don’t see the team being able to do it though this season.

[IDM]

On another day we would have won both the last two games 3-0 without any real shift in performances..

Fine margins indeed - always the same..

[Prez]

My worry is that out of the remaining 14 games 10 are away.

[anton123]

With the recent performances at home I think we are set up better to play away at the min with the pace on the counter so might not be as big an issue

[ravenrover]

My worry is that out of the remaining 14 games 10 are away.

I reckon on form this season we should be glad we've got that many away left

[BillyStubbsTears]

Home form

P18 W9 D5 L4

Away form
P12 W4 D4 L4.

I think I'd prefer to be playing more at home.

[drfchound]

Yep, me too.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Ideally of course but we don't have much choice.

When you look at it, we have reasons why we can be excused for being a little Inconsistent but each day that DM gets to work with the new players, hopefully the more consistent we'll get.

I think the concern we all have is from when things go wrong, how do we best recover our composure?
We need to just keep it simple, do the basics well, even if that means row z at times or long balls into the channel. No needless free kicks, sometimes slowing things down and buying time with a fake injury etc. Sadlier, Copps and Whiteman were signalling to calm it down last night and we did eventually. The young lads are not used to the ugly side of things but hopefully they'll learn.

[IDM]

One of the calmest players last night was Ramsey, in the final few minutes.. much more assured from him than on Saturday.

[Spud]

Home form

P18 W9 D5 L4

Away form
P12 W4 D4 L4.

I think I'd prefer to be playing more at home.

I'm fairly confident our away form will be better than that from now, given the january signings.
I'd also imagine certain players, Sheaf etc, can play more freely away from the Keepmoat, you wouldn't wanna put a pass astray in front of our fans unfortunately 

[NickDRFC]

Home form

P18 W9 D5 L4

Away form
P12 W4 D4 L4.

I think I'd prefer to be playing more at home.

That’s not really form is it, it’s just our record for the full season.

Mind you, if 6 games is a reasonable measure of form then our home record of W4 D1 L1 looks even better. Our away form has improved markedly, though - 3 wins in our last 6 after only 1 in the first 6.

[Dutch Uncle]

Home form

P18 W9 D5 L4

Away form
P12 W4 D4 L4.

I think I'd prefer to be playing more at home.

That’s not really form is it, it’s just our record for the full season.

Mind you, if 6 games is a reasonable measure of form then our home record of W4 D1 L1 looks even better. Our away form has improved markedly, though - 3 wins in our last 6 after only 1 in the first 6.

Win half of our remaining away games and we will be a long way towards the playoffs. 9 points on top of that should do it.

Don't think it will pan out like that, but 24 points from the remaining 14 matches although a tough ask is not impossible.

 

[DonnyBazR0ver]

We said at the turn of the year, we need 2 points per game average. Last 10 games have yielded 20 points.

Arguably, we now have at least two more matchwinners in our team.

14 games remain and I still think 74 points will be good enough for the play offs.

2 points per game will give us 76 points in total.

Of the 14 games left, 8 wins and a couple of draws aswell that would be great.

Is it too much to ask?

 

[jackthelad]

I think we will fall short,just.

[Dutch Uncle]

We said at the turn of the year, we need 2 points per game average. Last 10 games have yielded 20 points.

Arguably, we now have at least two more matchwinners in our team.

14 games remain and I still think 74 points will be good enough for the play offs.

2 points per game will give us 76 points in total.

Of the 14 games left, 8 wins and a couple of draws aswell that would be great.

Is it too much to ask?

 

Interesting DBR - BST thinks possibly 70 points will be required for a playoff finish, you think possibly 74 and I think possibly 72. Of course we are all guessing to a large extent.

Out of interest 72 points in 44 games is more or less 75 from 46, and the average points by a 6th placed team in our Division since 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 is 74.2

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Interesting.

If we've seen all different sides to us in the last 10 games and still won 20 points then it's very doable. Not easy by any means but if we target 8 wins from now, let's tick them off and see where we are.

[scawsby steve]

The problem with that BFYP is that we will probably have to start again with a different group of loan players.
Ok, we might be lucky enough to sign one or two of them.

Totally agree with all that Hound. What people fail to grasp when they suggest we should be patient and go for it next season, is that every season we fail to achieve promotion we inevitably lose our better players, just as we did last year.

If we don't go up this year, we can almost certainly say goodbye to Anderson, Whiteman, and Sadlier. Can we replace them with better? I doubt it.