Gas Prices

[normal rules]

I heard tell that our local fish n chip shop might be closing. Apparently they've been struggling to fix his prices for fish and potatoes. Taken with some huge energy bills, I was told they are looking at £50 a portion of fish n chips next year. Not doable. I shrugged it off and thought, the bloke telling must've got it wrong. It'll be £15 a portion I thought...

Then I heard chef, Tom Kerridge on the radio. His gastro pub in Marlow, Bucks has been paying £5,000 a month in energy, to run everything in the kitchens and what have you. His energy contract is coming up for renewal and he's been quoted.....

£35,000 a month to fix now. £35,000!!! at the a £100 posh dinner will have to be £600 or £700 quid! No business can absorb these sort of costs.

This is hyper inflation of an unimaginable sort. They reckon at least 70% of pubs will close. £30 a pint! No wonder.

Local pubs next.
I do wonder how football clubs will be hit with the rise in bills.

[drfchound]

Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m.

Chief Executive @ClaireRintoul told @ashishskynews:
 "It just doesn’t work, that is not just a realistic figure that we can afford. In the worst case scenario we close, that is the absolute worst case scenario.”

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsThompson/status/1565400085839728642

There was a feature on terrestrial tv on Wednesday about this situation wilts.
It is frightening.

[RobTheRover]

Last Friday, Winter 22 electricity hit £800 MWh.  Its retreated £200 since but that's still over 10x the price for the past, well, forever.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Three days. Then we can finally get rid of this embarrassment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1565305304195252225

[BillyStubbsTears]

Last Friday, Winter 22 electricity hit £800 MWh.  Its retreated £200 since but that's still over 10x the price for the past, well, forever.

German energy prices 1 year in advance were at €1000 per MWh at the end of last week. They were down to €500 today. Still ball breakingly high but might be signs that there's a corner being turned?

Putin's essentially fighting economic war on Europe. He's banking on people suffering so much that they force their Govts to pressure Ukraine to give in.

But if European countries ride this out and wean themselves off Russian gas, the long term damage to Russia's economy will be catastrophic. 

[no eyed deer]

Last Friday, Winter 22 electricity hit £800 MWh.  Its retreated £200 since but that's still over 10x the price for the past, well, forever.

German energy prices 1 year in advance were at €1000 per MWh at the end of last week. They were down to €500 today. Still ball breakingly high but might be signs that there's a corner being turned?

Putin's essentially fighting economic war on Europe. He's banking on people suffering so much that they force their Govts to pressure Ukraine to give in.

But if European countries ride this out and wean themselves off Russian gas, the long term damage to Russia's economy will be catastrophic. 

Ride this out ?

Is the answer just round the corner.

We have got ride of all our coal fired  power stations and replaced them with some windmills, solar and Biomass for which is shipped in tankers across the Atlantic.

Also, some interconnections to France, Ireland and Belgium one of which has set on fire.

This has been coming for years and the Government (both) have done very little. Expect let China and France build a nuclear plant !!

[i_ateallthepies]

Given the cost to governments of supporting their populations through the next winter it would surely be far more cost effective to simply give Ukraine the tools they need to put Putin back in his box, preferably a small-man sized one and let the world return to some kind of normality.

[Colin C No.3]

Three days. Then we can finally get rid of this embarrassment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1565305304195252225

The Prime Minister who’s last words in that role as he stepped away from the dispatch box were ‘Hasta la vista, baby’.

Role on the next two years when we can ‘run’ to the polling station & get rid of this lot.

[RobTheRover]

I was in a risk management meeting yesterday.  Oil is on a generally downward curve (minor volatility notwithstanding) and this is seen as a good barometer for gas prices to follow. Pricing has opened up bearish today, although Norwegian flows are cut for maintenance and wind gen is low this morning but picking up this aft.

The feeling is that Putin will ramp up nordstream flows if the west put lots of government support packages in place. Let governments commit to huge sums on business and household support, then flood the market with cheap gas whilst government fund £6/therm contracts.

[Nudga]

Last Friday, Winter 22 electricity hit £800 MWh.  Its retreated £200 since but that's still over 10x the price for the past, well, forever.

German energy prices 1 year in advance were at €1000 per MWh at the end of last week. They were down to €500 today. Still ball breakingly high but might be signs that there's a corner being turned?

Putin's essentially fighting economic war on Europe. He's banking on people suffering so much that they force their Govts to pressure Ukraine to give in.

But if European countries ride this out and wean themselves off Russian gas, the long term damage to Russia's economy will be catastrophic. 

Will it though? Aren't the BRICS nations forming an economic alliance?

Also Gazprom made a record 2.5 trillion roubles ($41.75 bn) in net profit in the first half of 2022

[BillyStubbsTears]

I suspect Putin is realising that he's overplayed his hand massively. Governments across Europe have f**ked up by tying themselves to Russian oil, but after Putin invaded Ukraine, there's been a smack in the face moment. There's been a realisation that he has to be faced down right here, right now. He's got to be put in his box and made to realise that he will suffer more than anyone after invading Ukraine. Governments are now prepared to take some serious financial pain NOW, by subsidising consumers to give themselves time to wean themselves of Putin's gas. Because the alternative is to play by his rules and strengthen him.

Putin thought the West was too soft to deal with a threat like this. So he declared economic war on us. It's a war we HAVE to win, however much it hurts countries' finances over the next couple of years.

If the European countries really do face him down and start moving seriously towards getting off the Russian gas, he'll be in very, very big trouble economically.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Last Friday, Winter 22 electricity hit £800 MWh.  Its retreated £200 since but that's still over 10x the price for the past, well, forever.

German energy prices 1 year in advance were at €1000 per MWh at the end of last week. They were down to €500 today. Still ball breakingly high but might be signs that there's a corner being turned?

Putin's essentially fighting economic war on Europe. He's banking on people suffering so much that they force their Govts to pressure Ukraine to give in.

But if European countries ride this out and wean themselves off Russian gas, the long term damage to Russia's economy will be catastrophic. 

Will it though? Aren't the BRICS nations forming an economic alliance?

Also Gazprom made a record 2.5 trillion roubles ($41.75 bn) in net profit in the first half of 2022

Putin doesn't have the infrastructure in place to ship large amounts of gas to China and India, never mind Brazil. He had the richest market in the world on his doorstep, with infrastructure to supply it and he's chosen to blow that up.

Thing about Putin is that we've convinced ourselves for years that he's a strategic genius. What he actually is, like Hitler before him, is a jumped up minor thug who succeeded because no-one stood up to his threats. He's massively overplayed his hand now.

[River Don]

I was in a risk management meeting yesterday.  Oil is on a generally downward curve (minor volatility notwithstanding) and this is seen as a good barometer for gas prices to follow. Pricing has opened up bearish today, although Norwegian flows are cut for maintenance and wind gen is low this morning but picking up this aft.

The feeling is that Putin will ramp up nordstream flows if the west put lots of government support packages in place. Let governments commit to huge sums on business and household support, then flood the market with cheap gas whilst government fund £6/therm contracts.

Oil is falling on expectations of a recession. I wouldn't assume gas will follow suit as readily as usual, gas isn't as global as oil, the European market is somewhat sealed off. somehow I doubt Putin is ready to change tack. The winter is not yet here, he thinks Europe will capitulate as the cold weather starts to bite. He doesn't think westerners can take, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't test this theory.

[i_ateallthepies]

I was in a risk management meeting yesterday.  Oil is on a generally downward curve (minor volatility notwithstanding) and this is seen as a good barometer for gas prices to follow. Pricing has opened up bearish today, although Norwegian flows are cut for maintenance and wind gen is low this morning but picking up this aft.

The feeling is that Putin will ramp up nordstream flows if the west put lots of government support packages in place. Let governments commit to huge sums on business and household support, then flood the market with cheap gas whilst government fund £6/therm contracts.

Oil is falling on expectations of a recession. I wouldn't assume gas will follow suit as readily as usual, gas isn't as global as oil, the European market is somewhat sealed off. somehow I doubt Putin is ready to change tack. The winter is not yet here, he thinks Europe will capitulate as the cold weather starts to bite. He doesn't think westerners can take, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't test this theory.

He obviously thinks the rest of Europe is like Siberia.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

The issue of Putin waiting for the cold weather to bite only applies if consumers are not sufficiently well subsidised (either by price caps or transfers of money to them). If consumers are subsidised, the cold doesn't matter because people and companies will still be able to afford to pay. The maximum amount that Duncan Weldon was saying this would add to Govt debt to GDP ratio is 20%.

That's less than either the effect of the GFC or the effect of COVID. In WWII, by comparison, our debt to GDP ratio went up by 40% a year for 6 years. And our economy survived. After that, and before the insanity of Austerity, we had 65 years of continual growth in living standards.

Western Governments have to think of this as a genuine war. If they have the will to stomach the debt increase, it is relatively easy to ride this out, and  face Putin down. If we don't have that will, that means capitulating over Ukraine and letting Putin have what he wants. That makes for a f**k sight more  scary future than 20% on the debt would.

The truly mad Western policy would be for Governments to keep supporting Ukraine and not subsidise consumers. That gives Putin the option of keeping the price higher than people can afford and really letting people freeze. A winter of that would be the end of our societies. I'm working on the assumption that our Govts are not stupid enough to do that.

[i_ateallthepies]

One of them might well be stupid enough, BST.

[River Don]

Europe can only subside so far, there is a limited quantity of gas and the threat of blackouts is real.

My feeling is this is a demonstration of hard power, it doesn't suit Putins agenda to allow gas into Europe. I think he needs to see genuine shortages. The challenge then is to prevent that and get by.

I completely agree that we should be on a wartime footing. We are at war in all but name.

[River Don]

Russia has just announced Nordstream is staying off indefinitely.

Gas prices expected to jump again tomorrow and the risk of blackouts has become much more likely...

[Panda]

Need to get fracking as of yesterday.

[i_ateallthepies]

Russia has just announced Nordstream is staying off indefinitly.

Gas prices expected to jump again tomorrow and the risk of blackouts has become much more likely...

That's probably Putin's last ace played.  We just need to make sure we dig in and make sure his pips are the first to squeak.

[River Don]

Bloomberg are running a story that says they expect 6 in 10 UK factories to go out of business with these levels of energy price.

Tom Kerridge was talking about 7 in 10 pubs going to the wall the other day.

Lizzie is still telling us recession is not inevitable and she is not talking about energy prices still. She's going for growth! Somehow...

And today the news has just got worse.

[scawsby steve]

The experts are telling us that the economic catastrophe coming in Winter will be the worst since World War 2. Factories, businesses, pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, and football clubs, are all in danger of going to the wall. Not to mention poor people practically freezing or starving to death.

Yet some people are still saying that it's a price worth paying to support Ukraine in a war that can't be won, and will go on for years.

[Panda]

Never happens. They predict all this in the fear driven sensationalist media but in reality it never happens. For Gods sake please don't go out panic buying candles and matches everyone!

Pubs and restaurants that serve crap food (and there are a lot) might go bust with some luck and deservedly so. Football clubs are always crying wolf over finances. Not seen any hit the wall due to Covid when they were all bleating about how they could fold. They'll be fine. Always are.

Cinemas are too expensive anyway so fine. They can go.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian first lady will continue to do Vogue appearances and live like a queen whilst the rest of the poorer Ukrainians fight and poor UK people suffer too in order to help finance it. Always those who are telling us how bad things are and what we must all do to help who are never affected by any of it.

[Nudga]

All part of the plan. Crash the economy, build back better in lockstep with other WEF infiltrated countries, digital currencies tied in with digital IDs, facial recognition and biometric tech to buy limited goods. Meat off the market replaced by bugs. Limited travel if  you've gone over your travel quota.
Small and medium businesses are all.gone, Amazon etc have the game tied up.
Empty town centre shops and pubs turned into living quarters and smart cities.
Why do you think the elites have been raping the current system so much? Theyve been quickly taking out billions, probably already turned it into the new currency or more likely gold.
In five years we'll not be able to take a shit without permission.

[River Don]

Nudge,

Does all that really fit in with Truss who is saying, don't be negative la la la economic growth, I am Maggie Thatcher reborn?

[Nudga]

Yeah because she'll play her part, she's just as bad an actor fat Boris

[River Don]

Honestly Nudge, there is one reason why Truss won't achieve economic growth. We physically do not have enough gas to generate the energy to power growth.

Economists think everything is run by money. The truth is money is just a token and it mostly represents energy.

Without affordable energy we are sunk. As we are about to find out.

[Panda]

All part of the plan. Crash the economy, build back better in lockstep with other WEF infiltrated countries, digital currencies tied in with digital IDs, facial recognition and biometric tech to buy limited goods. Meat off the market replaced by bugs. Limited travel if  you've gone over your travel quota.
Small and medium businesses are all.gone, Amazon etc have the game tied up.
Empty town centre shops and pubs turned into living quarters and smart cities.
Why do you think the elites have been raping the current system so much? Theyve been quickly taking out billions, probably already turned it into the new currency or more likely gold.
In five years we'll not be able to take a shit without permission.

Agree with most of this. The cashless society is already taking shape. I do my bit. Whenever i visit a shop / outlet or visitor attraction and they tell me it is card payments only, i send them a complaint saying that i'm mentally impaired and need to pay by cash so i know where i am and by not letting me do so, they've broken the Equality Act 2010 and thus the law.

I always get what i've spent refunded including entry fees / ticket prices and sometimes i get extras that i ask for such as i got a free years pass for the National Trust and if they don't give me what i asked, i'll take them to court.

I also ask that in future visits if i can pay by cash for things as a reasonable adjustment and a few have backed down and agreed.

Ironically i visited one place recently which was an old country house estate which used card payments only in car parks, gift shops, cafe etc but on leaving they had a huge glass box in the exit foyer...................FOR CASH DONATIONS!!

I told them they'd got a nerve. It's ok taking cash for donations all of a sudden ain't it? Pathetic hypocrites.

Cashless society is something we have to kick off against and i'm doing my bit by being an obnoxious, obstinate and formidable persistent opponent whenever someone dictates to me whether i can pay by cash or not. I can and i will! I don't leave them alone until they back down. If it takes a letter a week. It is very stressful and time consuming but it matters. I wish more people would stick up for their rights.

It makes them think twice at the very least that they can't just dictate to us and get away with it.

[River Don]

Honestly Panda it does not matter if currency is available in gold, paper or digital code.

[Panda]

Honestly Panda it does not matter if currency is available in gold, paper or digital code.

I want to pay by cash. I know where i am. I don't have lots of cash so it's easier for me if i go out for the day to take out some cash and then i know what i've got and what i've spent. Can't do that with card.

Also, often my card gets declined at places even when i've got cash in due to banking issues and it's embarrassing and causes stress and inconvenience. Cash is best for me and nobody will tell me i can't pay by card or they'll get a letter of claim.

What about older people too? They prefer to use cash a lot of them.

Card is fine if you've got loads in the bank and you don't need to keep a strict track. I haven't and so it is not helpful.