Massive win

[BillyStubbsTears]

I gave us a 1:20 chance of getting to 45 points and that being enough to stay up. It's now maybe 1:5. It will swing massively on Saturday, one way or the other.

[Campsall rover]

I would agree with that BST.  20% chance now. Probably was only 5% before the MK Dons game.
Beat Wimbledon and I would give us a 30% chance.

[dickos1]

I gave us a 1:20 chance of getting to 45 points and that being enough to stay up. It's now maybe 1:5. It will swing massively on Saturday, one way or the other.

In jan you said we only had a 1% chance of staying up,

[BillyStubbsTears]

I gave us a 1:20 chance of getting to 45 points and that being enough to stay up. It's now maybe 1:5. It will swing massively on Saturday, one way or the other.

In jan you said we only had a 1% chance of staying up,

I did, once, fair dos. That was in despair after watching us feebly surrender to Fleetwood and with no sign of new players coming in. That was wrong.

[GazLaz]

We’ve now got a 7-8% chance of staying up. Much better than yesterday but don’t get too carried away. If we lose on Saturday we are all but dead.

[rich1471]

If we win on Saturday we will have taken 12 points out of 24 ,much better than most of us would have predicted,just need to try and maintain that form against the teams around us

[drfchound]

The interesting thing is Billy set a target to reach 50 points for each team. At present none of the bottom five have averaged 1 point per game, the next two have beaten that target by just one point each. Factor in the tough opposition coming up for many of them and one point per game is going to be a good target, in other words, 46 or 47 might be enough, possibly less, for survival. Hold that thought. But it's all irrelevant if we don't pick up a good proportion of wins against the clubs around us, the proverbial 6 pointers.

I've been saying for weeks that 45 points would give us a fighting chance.

With a fair wind, 43 might be enough.

Have you been saying it for weeks?
Well, technically yes I suppose, two weeks actually after you admitted that your calculations had been wrong in insisting that we would need fifty points.
But, yeah…….

[ditch_drfc]

It's still a massive uphill task. Our form over the last 10 matches would still leave us short. Form over the last 6 matches (Won 3, Lost 3) is nip and tuck at 44 points. We've got a chance but there really is no room for error now.

[dickos1]

Continuing our 1.5 points per game over the last 6 games would get us safe for me

[Mike_F]

The encouraging thing that gives me a glimmer of hope is the standard of opposition we've got on average for our run in. Billy mentioned "playoff form" but over a season to get in the playoffs you need to take that points average against every team in the league. We don't have to play all the top six sides between now and the end of the season. It's still a massive task for us to stay up but we have probably the "easiest" set of fixtures of anyone in the mire right now.

[Donnybob]

Of course, some are looking at the season as a linear graph but ask yourself this. Is the current squad stronger than the one we had during the first half of the season?
And can it potentially get stronger with key players returning from injury/ getting up to fitness?
If the season started today would we expect to get more than 50 points over 46 games?
If the answer to those 3 questions is yes then surely there's a chance of avoiding the drop.
Alas I cannot help but feel the 0-3 to 4-3 reverse at Morecambe will be coming back to haunt us. A season defining game if ever there was one.

[Mike_F]

You could be right, DB. But then who would've thought we'd got and win away at Sunderland? Maybe that could be the season defining game. Or maybe finally beating Accrington is "the one."

Actually if we win on Saturday I'd say that could be the biggest of the lot.

[normal rules]

Of course, some are looking at the season as a linear graph but ask yourself this. Is the current squad stronger than the one we had during the first half of the season?
And can it potentially get stronger with key players returning from injury/ getting up to fitness?
If the season started today would we expect to get more than 50 points over 46 games?
If the answer to those 3 questions is yes then surely there's a chance of avoiding the drop.
Alas I cannot help but feel the 0-3 to 4-3 reverse at Morecambe will be coming back to haunt us. A season defining game if ever there was one.

Morcambe certainly was the season defining match. Up to that point.
But, and it’s a little but, wins at MK, Sunderland Lincoln, and now against a bogey side in Accy have gone some way to repair the hurt this game caused. There’s 12 points there I never expected. Unlucky to not get a point against Ipswich too.
So the season continues after Morcambe and should we secure lge one status, Morcambe will be long forgotten.
I’m unsure if the team is stronger, as that’s a pretty vague description, they are starting to play together as a team though. And that counts. The supporters are starting to get behind them more again, and that will help too.
Things are looking more promising.