HS2 delay

[BillyStubbsTears]

This one is a classic sign of a Govt that has run into the buffers and had no idea left about how it wants to direct the country.

If you want HS2, build the f**king thing.

If you don't want it, cancel it.

What they are doing instead is delaying it because they "want to reduce annual expenditure."

That makes absolutely no economic sense at all. It's going to make the overall project more expensive (because people who are working on it are going to get laid off and move to other jobs, meaning when they are wanted again there's a learning curve - and because inflation is high so in two years time things will be more expensive than now.)

There is only one rationale, and it's what a Treasury official has told the BBC economic reporter Simon Jack. Reducing annual spending helps Jeremy Hunt hit his target of having the debt falling by the next election.

So not a decision made in the national interest. One made to serve the political purpose of the Tory party.

Absolute state of this rabble.

[Bentley Bullet]

https://youtu.be/ohDB5gbtaEQ

[drfchound]

Anyone with even half a brain would have known when HS2 was started that the costs would spiral out of control.
Why todays news has come as a shock to anyone I really can’t understand.
I have been against it from the day it was first announced and would be delighted if the project was abandoned.
In the modern day with all the available communications available, why does anyone need to be in London 20 minutes quicker.

[Bentley Bullet]

It's always made me chuckle seeing sleeper carriages parked up at Doncaster station with sleeping businessmen inside getting their money's worth because the country's too bloody small for the journey to last for a full night's kip!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

With the significant reduction in rail travel you have to question if the cost benefit analysis has been completely destroyed by the change in how we live.

[Bentley Bullet]

Travel these days is less necessary than it's ever been.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Then cancel it.

If there's an economic decision to be made, make it.

[Branton Red]

From Osbourne onward the Tories have become obsessed with the National Debt and annual borrowing levels.

Covid and the cost of funding Furlough etc, and the cost of footing energy bills has increased government borrowing and led to this obsession coming back to the fore.

Their complete inability to distinguish between capital spend and day-to-day expenditure beggars belief.

Day-to-day expenditure needs to be controlled within the taxation framework a government wishes to employ.

Well directed capital expenditure, especially when interest rates are low and economic growth sluggish, should be encouraged to help foster future economic growth which in turn both increases the tax yield and reduces National debt to GDP.

Quite why they don't get this is beyond me. Delaying HS2 is just another example of their short-termist, illogical thinking on government expenditure.

They're not saying that they're against HS2 here.

[BillyStubbsTears]

From Osbourne onward the Tories have become obsessed with the National Debt and annual borrowing levels.

Covid and the cost of funding Furlough etc, and the cost of footing energy bills has increased government borrowing and led to this obsession coming back to the fore.

Their complete inability to distinguish between capital spend and day-to-day expenditure beggars belief.

Day-to-day expenditure needs to be controlled within the taxation framework a government wishes to employ.

Well directed capital expenditure, especially when interest rates are low and economic growth sluggish, should be encouraged to help foster future economic growth which in turn both increases the tax yield and reduces National debt to GDP.

Quite why they don't get this is beyond me. Delaying HS2 is just another example of their short-termist, illogical thinking on government expenditure.

They're not saying that they're against HS2 here.

Nail. Head.

[Sprotyrover]

It's always made me chuckle seeing sleeper carriages parked up at Doncaster station with sleeping businessmen inside getting their money's worth because the country's too bloody small for the journey to last for a full night's kip!

Back in 1972 I travelled from Belgrade to Hanovers on a sleeper which parked up on Passau RAILWAY station for 3 hours 12 am to 3am! It was a 26 hour hour  n eh 8am to 10am the following day!

[albie]

Standard business practice in the infrastructure game to secure project approval on the basis of an optimistic business case for CapEx.

Once the scheme is underway, ramp up costs through the build phase, as politicians will not feel they can draw back.
The nuclear industry has followed this development model for years, and keeps getting bailed out.

Many pointed out the dangers of cost escalation with Hs2, but heroic assumptions and economic innumeracy among the political decision makers can be relied upon.
Johnson, for example, is barely capable of primary school arithmetic.

Rolling back the opening adds to the overall problem by delaying the operational income assumed in the agreed timetable.

Until you make the initial cost benefit analysis realistic, and make contractors liable for cost over-runs, it will keep happening.
Nice little earner for the construction sector, with the public purse as banker of the last resort!

[danumdon]

The initial case for HS2 existed at the time when it was first considered, the rail infrastructure (along with the roads also) in this country is slowly deteriorating to a level where it becomes uneconomic to continue to spend a large budget to maintain. With most new infrastructure planning requiring 20years plus lead in time it was important that a plan was put in place to construct a new north to south rail route that would be fit for the next century and beyond, when you factor in the environmental stipulations we will be subject to in the next 10 to 30 years it was important that the country had a system in place that allowed for an expansion in travel for when the economy picks up, road pricing comes in and drives many people of the roads, you need a system that will enable people and more importantly goods to traverse the country for the next 150 years.

The situation already existed that the WCML had reached saturation point with regard to train pathing diagrams, for the expected increase in freight traffic that destroys all passenger traffic timetables, there now existed a requirement to increase the paths available from north to south just to maintain the status quo, to do this you needed the extra capacity of a totally new constructed route that would have ERTMS built into the route to allow trains to run in much closer formation, preferably at around the same speed to increase total running capacity, not just for now but for the next 150 years.

What then happened was that (useless) politicians got involved, saw an opportunity to big themselves up and propose not just a new route but a new HIGH SPEED ROUTE, something that would be the envy of the rest of the world, trains running at over 20mph shrinking the country from the established 4hrs plus from London to Glasgow/Edinburgh to around 2hrs, in the process taking on all  road travel and UK  airports for the internal market. This would require a massive budget and the cost was initially estimated at around 25/25billion. In no time at all that figure was proven to be more than useless to the project as the new railway would require to be routed through large sections of AONB, this in itself was always going to cause a massive stink and so it proved, the railway would run in many lagre sections in deep cuttings and tunnels, this in turn increased the costs massively to over 80billion and counting.

Of course nobody wants to be the bearer of very bad news so when it became obvious that costs were going to escalate the same (useless) politicians decided to tone down the project, reduce the overall line sped, cut sections that had been due to connect with parts of the eastern side of the country and in some areas remove the project completely, this supposedly would save many millions, but when large tranches of land have already been bought and paid for, buildings demolished and whole areas flattened to make way for the project it became apparent that the savings were not going to be anywhere near what the originality envisaged.

And so it goes on, these same (useless) politicians now decide to delay large sections for the next two years hoping to save the costs now, to be picked up by the poor(useless) politicians who will be responsible for it in two years time.

This country is in the middle of a process that will ensure that we are dumbed down to an unbelievably low level, something akin to a poor developing nation is what is on the books and its been on the cads for the last 30 years or so.

We inevitably get the governance we deserve, and its already started to happen, people need to wake up before its too late for this great nation to save itself.

[SydneyRover]

If you make contractors liable for overruns on long term contracts you won't get anyone tendering for the work. Infrastructure of national importance such as public transport the business case should be offset by the benefits to AQ, those that don't drive, reductions in road building and maintenance, tourism etc, maybe it already is?

Design and Construct is a method used where the engineer/architect lays down the performance specifications and it's up to the winning bidder on a fixed price to meet those requirements but not viable on such a complicated project.

[Donnywolf]

Wonder if this is a cynical ploy or play by Govt

Use the money "saved" to Electioneer knowing that if they don't get re-elected then the problem falls to the new Govt be that Labour or a Coalition of various colours ?

Govts can't now fiddle with Interest rates due to Bank of England independence but they can open their war chests with Tax cuts and the like to produce a "feel good" factor be it real or perceived

[Metalmicky]

It's part of the levelling up process....... as a sweetener to this, the 'north' will also get to look after several thousand asylum seekers at RAF Scampton (or possibly Linton-on-Ouse).  It helps balance out the 'feel good' factor for all.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Then cancel it.

If there's an economic decision to be made, make it.

It's hard to disagree or see the necessity for it. Whilst we may have leisure travel, business travel is significantly lower and that's where much of the money in the business cases is derived.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

If you make contractors liable for overruns on long term contracts you won't get anyone tendering for the work. Infrastructure of national importance such as public transport the business case should be offset by the benefits to AQ, those that don't drive, reductions in road building and maintenance, tourism etc, maybe it already is?

Design and Construct is a method used where the engineer/architect lays down the performance specifications and it's up to the winning bidder on a fixed price to meet those requirements but not viable on such a complicated project.

On the contrary it's quite a competitive market and tender process with very small margins, the contracts just have to have a responsibility on the contractors or they just don't work.  There will always be inflation and dispute mechanisms within them but no doubting these big contracts are high risk for often quite low reward really.

[BillyStubbsTears]

None of this discussion covers the issue in the OP.

As I said, if there's an economic case to build HS2, build it. If there's not, cancel it.

What the Govt is doing is to delay it, for no other reason than to be able to say at the next election "We got the debt falling like we promised".

The very, very worst kind of political cynicism. Party political self interest over national interest.

[SydneyRover]

If the delay is a last desperate act of a decaying government it could be a coin toss, use it to claw back the budget and a possible election win as remote as that is atm, lose and labour have to deal with it.

[Bentley Bullet]

We don't have to worry any more. Starmer will make the decision and that decision will be the right one. Our saviour is coming.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You used to be quite witty BB.

You've become so blunted by your bitterness that you don't even know what you're trying and failing to be witty about. 

[Bentley Bullet]

You've always attacked the government BST,  but soon your position on here will change from attack to defence, and I can't wait. 

You'll soon see that my wit is still very much alive, and better than ever!

[SydneyRover]

Is this what you pud, I wasn't sure with your reply.

https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/cost_overruns_of_major_government_projects

[BillyStubbsTears]

You've always attacked the government BST,  but soon your position on here will change from attack to defence, and I can't wait. 

You'll soon see that my wit is still very much alive, and better than ever!

I've always given clear reasons why I've disagreed with Govt policy.

You, as ever, are free to engage with any of that.

But you never, ever do. You, and a few others in here just assume any criticism is based on bias and bad faith. I assume you are projecting your own standards.

[albie]

BST,

"As I said, if there's an economic case to build HS2, build it. If there's not, cancel it."

It doesn't work like that.
There are penalty clauses which apply to main contractors (and their sub-contractors) which are triggered by revisions. All these are normal inclusions.

The reality is that once a project like Hs2 is significantly underway, it is almost impossible to withdraw from the scheme unless that is specifically provided in the original terms.

As I posted above, the issue is with approval granted on the basis of inaccurate cost benefit assessment at the outset. All subsequent problems are traceable back to this deceptive analysis.

[belton rover]

Billy. The difficulty with your insistence that all you are doing is ‘giving reasons why you disagree with government policy’, is when your statements almost always include comments that make you appear to be writing in bad faith and with bias, such as ‘absolute state of this rabble’ (as above - and that’s one of the tame ones). If you don’t want people to think that you write in bad faith  and with bias, then perhaps you should stop writing in such way that reeks of bad faith and bias.

For what it’s worth, I am really trying to be more considered in my responses to anything on here, but you really don’t help yourself with your claims that you are misunderstood.

[danumdon]

Also to cancel it now (even parts of it)would throw over 100k construction workers onto the dole, not a bright thing to do at any time, even worse if you're leaving a decision of this magnitude for the next government to deal with.

Proper busted flush.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST,

"As I said, if there's an economic case to build HS2, build it. If there's not, cancel it."

It doesn't work like that.
There are penalty clauses which apply to main contractors (and their sub-contractors) which are triggered by revisions. All these are normal inclusions.

The reality is that once a project like Hs2 is significantly underway, it is almost impossible to withdraw from the scheme unless that is specifically provided in the original terms.

As I posted above, the issue is with approval granted on the basis of inaccurate cost benefit assessment at the outset. All subsequent problems are traceable back to this deceptive analysis.

That's all covered by the term "economic case"

[Sprotyrover]

They should have spent a lot less and upgraded the East Coast mainline!

[albie]

Incorrect, BST.

The economic case is not a fixed entity, it changes over time.

If you build a Cost Benefit analysis on optimistic assumptions, which the construction sector always do in the UK, then project delay and rising inflationary pressures blow a hole in the initial business case.

With those revised costs during project development, alongside deferred utilisation of the completed scheme, the CoBa at approval bears little relation to the CoBa from the scheme in operation.

In some cases the final CoBa may become actually negative....meaning the completed scheme should never have been consented in the first place!

I agree with Sproty about the main line, but HSR has a place.....for example, the Trans Pennine upgrade.