Busting the injury excuse

[moses]

If we lose the first game next season at home. All the chanting, negativity will begin again.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

I'm sorry, I'd assumed your questions where rhetorical and that you weren't needing confirmation.

Of course those runs of results are not "acceptable".

The question is: why have they happened. I'd moved on to an assessment of that question (which you consider to be waffle - your call). I assumed that much was obvious, but clearly not.

Hallelujah!

So you accept of course that Rovers results since New Year are not acceptable given the players available.

Therefore, by definition, you must agree with my key point that injuries are not a valid excuse for Rovers long term abysmal form.

Remind me then. Seeing as how you agree with my central point. Why an Earth have you been arguing against it so strenuously on this thread?

[sedwardsdrfc]

If we lose the first game next season at home. All the chanting, negativity will begin again.

That and the thought of extra funds is what makes me nervous about taking the risk. If after 15 games we have to get rid is that another season wrote off…. We were hoping to bounce back.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I'm sorry, I'd assumed your questions where rhetorical and that you weren't needing confirmation.

Of course those runs of results are not "acceptable".

The question is: why have they happened. I'd moved on to an assessment of that question (which you consider to be waffle - your call). I assumed that much was obvious, but clearly not.

Hallelujah!

So you accept of course that Rovers results since New Year are not acceptable given the players available.

Therefore, by definition, you must agree with my key point that injuries are not a valid excuse for Rovers long term abysmal form.

Remind me then. Seeing as how you agree with my central point. Why an Earth have you been arguing against it so strenuously on this thread?

Branton.

I said the results weren't acceptable.

I didn't caveat it with the "players available" line.

Any run of results like that is unacceptable, for any club, at any time. In that no-one would sensibly shrug their shoulders and say "nevermind".

What you then need to do is to look into the reasons for that run of results.

You, insisting that there hadn't been a long term injury problem, and that the squad of players is fundamentallyba good one, place the problem overwhelmingly at the feet of the manager.

My take starts with a fundamental disagreement with you. I think we HAVE had a long term serious fitness problem, and I've set out why I think your analysis is wrong.

I also think that the situation has been exacerbated by serious individual errors, from players in a fundamentally not very good squad.

I've set out why I think that. You told me it was waffle. So frankly, I'm not inclined to humour you much more.

Suffice to say, I don't think the results are in any way "acceptable". But I end up at a different conclusion as to where the balance of reason for those results sits. The injuries are  one part of that reason. And I think your analysis of the injury situation is a classic example of you deciding the conclusion you want, then choosing to present evidence to support it, rather than dispassionately looking at the evidence, then drawing a conclusion.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

I said the results weren't acceptable.

I didn't caveat it with the "players available" line.

In spite of the fact that my question to you (asked at least 4 times) quite clearly included that caveat.

Frankly I don't have the patience of Jeremy Paxman to ask another 8 times in the vain hope of getting a direct answer.

I think I, and anyone reading this, can draw an obvious conclusion as to why you refuse to answer the question.

And also why now you've shifted your excuses away from injuries towards "fitness" and player errors.

You'll find many of the goals conceded in League 2 stem from player errors. Surely you can do better than that??

Of course if you have a manager whose tactics continually cede possession and territory and so invite the opposition to put your team under pressure the team will tend to make plenty of defensive errors that lead to opposition chances and goals.

Conversely if your tactics involve playing an isolated, lone striker and not getting players forward quickly enough to support him in attack you'll find that you don't put the opposition under much pressure defensively and therefore they don't make many defensive errors leading to goal scoring chances.

It's quite a simple game in that way.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton

Of course fitness matters when we are talking about injuries.

Barlow, coming back from three months out injured, wasn't miraculously match fit because he was placed on the bench. He was there because there were no alternatives in an injury hit squad.

Rowe playing for months when patently not at 100% doesn't mean he's "fit". He's playing because we have no alternative in an injury ravaged squad.

You say that L2 players make mistakes.

They do. But go and count up how many opposition keeper have let routine shots straight through their hands against us this season. Or, when unpressured, how many have passed the ball straight to one of our players 20 yards out. Count up how many opposition strikers have failed to score when unmarked 3 yards out from an open goal, because they refused to tap the ball in with their left foot.

Go on. Back up your invective with some value neutral research.

[Branton Red]

Billy

You can't even answer a simple Yes or No question directed at you on 4 or 5 occasions to validate your argument.

So excuse me if I don't trawl through highlights of Rovers games in answer to your last post.

It was painful enough watching those games anyway thanks to the utterly tedious and wholly ineffective football Schofield has subjected us to - and for reasons beyond my comprehension you're in favour of watching again next season whilst risking putting Rovers Football League status under threat.

And my posts have not been the least bit invective please take that back. There is no justification for such an insult just because we have a genuine difference of opinion on how our football club is being run.

[TheFunk]

f**k me even Stevie Wonder can see that injuries have affected performances. Yes every club gets them but not so many all at once. Just compare how many Orient players have made 30 appearances this season compared to ours.

[drfchound]

Undoubtedly injuries have made a difference, in recent games.
In all but two or three of Schofields 30 matches in charge we have been awful to watch.

[Branton Red]

f**k me even Stevie Wonder can see that injuries have affected performances. Yes every club gets them but not so many all at once. Just compare how many Orient players have made 30 appearances this season compared to ours.

Yes over the last 4 or 5 games. But it is not a valid excuse for Rovers form going south from the turn of the year onward or being in relegation form since then.

[adamtherover]

If we lose the first game next season at home. All the chanting, negativity will begin again.

if?   :-(

[Canadian Rover]

But go and count up how many opposition keeper have let routine shots straight through their hands against us this season.

Billy - we'd need to get some shots on target for that to happen.

[Cramby10]

But go and count up how many opposition keeper have let routine shots straight through their hands against us this season.

Billy - we'd need to get some shots on target for that to happen.

boom!!

[dickos1]

The injuries keep being dismissed but since schofield took over, the following players have all missed a big portion of games through injury.
Maxwell,
Anderson,
Olowu,
Rowe,
Biggins,
Lakin,
Miller,

That’s 7 players that have been missing for weeks, and 7 players that would be in our strongest 11.
Every side gets injuries, but to just dismiss this fact just dilutes any argument you may have.

[Branton Red]

On 1st January Rovers were 8th 1 point off the play offs. They lost 5 of their next 8 matches to the end of February well before they were "hit by a number of injuries". By the end of Feb they were 6 points off the play offs.

2 games later against Harrogate Schofield selected: Mitchell; Brown, Anderson, Olowu, Nelson, Rowe; Close, Biggins, Molyneux, Hirst; Lavery. G Miller and Lakin came off the bench. Maxwell apart (and why didn't he sign another LB as cover in January?!) that constitutes Rovers best players based on Schofield's selections over time.

We lost that game abjectly 0-2 at home against a team struggling for survival.

At this point Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form. They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

The end of any realistic chance of making the play offs and the descent into abysmal relegation form clearly pre-date Rovers being "hit by a number of injuries"

Did you not watch the games in Jan/Feb/early March?? Tedious, ineffective rubbish despite playing a strong team.

Yes Rovers have been hit by injuries since and form has worsened considerably due to that.

But Rovers play-off challenging season was torpedoed way before issues of injuries, fitness, terrible player errors by the tortuously tedious and tepid tactics of Mr Schofield.

[dickos1]

You say we only had injuries from early March, well this may be so, but we were still in touch with the playoffs early March, so the point your making is in fact that until the injuries took hold in early March we were still in with a shout of the playoffs

[Branton Red]

You say we only had injuries from early March, well this may be so, but we were still in touch with the playoffs early March, so the point your making is in fact that until the injuries took hold in early March we were still in with a shout of the playoffs

No in fact I'm saying by 7th March Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form.They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

[dickos1]

You say we only had injuries from early March, well this may be so, but we were still in touch with the playoffs early March, so the point your making is in fact that until the injuries took hold in early March we were still in with a shout of the playoffs

No in fact I'm saying by mid-March Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form.They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

That’s not correct, mid March, say 16th March we were 6 points off the playoffs with a game in hand.
The next game we lost 2 of our most important players and it’s been downhill ever since

[Branton Red]

I was clearly citing the Harrogate game on 7th March.

2 games later against Harrogate Schofield selected: Mitchell; Brown, Anderson, Olowu, Nelson, Rowe; Close, Biggins, Molyneux, Hirst; Lavery. G Miller and Lakin came off the bench. Maxwell apart (and why didn't he sign another LB as cover in January?!) that constitutes Rovers best players based on Schofield's selections over time.

We lost that game abjectly 0-2 at home against a team struggling for survival.

At this point Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form. They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

Yes after they beat Wimbledon on 11th March (Rovers only win in the last 14 matches) they were 6 points off Salford in 7th with a game in hand. But they were 9 points off 6th placed Bradford and crucially 5 points off 8th place Mansfield who had 2 games in hand on Rovers (and 3 on Salford only 1 point above them).

At this point to get into the play offs they were needing c. 26 points from 11 fixtures (based on Mansfield's ppg then which is in line with what would be needed looking at the table now). That is not in touching distance of the play offs!

[BillyStubbsTears]

You say we only had injuries from early March, well this may be so, but we were still in touch with the playoffs early March, so the point your making is in fact that until the injuries took hold in early March we were still in with a shout of the playoffs

No in fact I'm saying by 7th March Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form.They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

Because your premise about injuries is fundamentally wrong.

You say we had X players available therefore we didn't have a problem.

But that doesn't follow logically.

Here's the issue.

Even with every single player available, we still have some glaring holes in the squad.

We have virtually no aerial power, certainly none outside the back four.

We have very little pace.

We have very little aggression.

We have no box to box stamina players.

We have no brute tacklers.

We don't have a single forceful personality in the squad - what I call a mester.

Now. With those gaps, you CAN still have a successful side. You can play to what strengths you do have. But it's a fragile construct. Start to lose a few important players, and you're struggling to keep the momentum going. You need good luck with injuries so that the best XI or close to it plays week in week out and "clicks".

We haven't had that luck all season.

We have (I think this is right, I haven't got the energy to double check it) only 3 players who have been fully fit and available for 80% of games (Mitchell, Molyneux and Hurst)[1]. We have had both long term injuries and a glut of niggling ones that have put players out for 1-2 games at a time and disrupted the team.

Our squad has qualities, but it doesn't have the breadth of qualities to deal with that sort of chronic injury problem over and over again.

You, Branton, see that we had a handful of players available for 8-9 games in the run you keep talking about, and conclude that we didn't have an injury problem. But with the manifest and bleeding obvious shortcomings of the squad, you need a run where you have 10-11 key players available for every game for a decent length of time if you're going to succeed.


Every side that ever succeeds has that. Folk in here are regularly shouting "Northampton" when I make this point. Northampton have 8 players who have played more than 80% of their league games, including key defenders, midfielders and strikers. Whatever injuries they have had, they've kept a core of a first team XI most weeks. Our first XI has changed almost every game this past 5 months, because we've lost players regularly to both short and long term injuries.

[1] Correction. Close has just made it to that number too. So a woefully poor keeper, a couple of mercurial wide players and a midfielder than most think gas been a poor signing. Not a single striker or defender makes it into that list. And the two closest players we have to "mesters", Rowe and Anderson, have both missed getting on for half the season. 

[Chris Black come back]

We've been shite all season. People saying we were only a win or only two wins outside the play offs. Aside from one weekend in August we were not in the play offs at any point all season. The reason for this is that we are shite and at no stage accrued points at the required level to get into and stay in the play offs. It wasn't a matter of us yo-yoing in and out of the play offs, we were never in them.

[sedwardsdrfc]

We were crap which is why GM was rightfully sacked. Yet we were only just outside the playoffs despite been crap. The thought was a better manager would get a bit more out the players and it’s no unreasonable to think we could get into the playoffs. It’s a poor league after all.

[dickos1]

I was clearly citing the Harrogate game on 7th March.

2 games later against Harrogate Schofield selected: Mitchell; Brown, Anderson, Olowu, Nelson, Rowe; Close, Biggins, Molyneux, Hirst; Lavery. G Miller and Lakin came off the bench. Maxwell apart (and why didn't he sign another LB as cover in January?!) that constitutes Rovers best players based on Schofield's selections over time.

We lost that game abjectly 0-2 at home against a team struggling for survival.

At this point Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form. They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

Yes after they beat Wimbledon on 11th March (Rovers only win in the last 14 matches) they were 6 points off Salford in 7th with a game in hand. But they were 9 points off 6th placed Bradford and crucially 5 points off 8th place Mansfield who had 2 games in hand on Rovers (and 3 on Salford only 1 point above them).

At this point to get into the play offs they were needing c. 26 points from 11 fixtures (based on Mansfield's ppg then which is in line with what would be needed looking at the table now). That is not in touching distance of the play offs!

Whatever way you want to twist it, if we’d beaten salford in our next game we would’ve been right in touch of the playoffs.

[Branton Red]

I was clearly citing the Harrogate game on 7th March.

2 games later against Harrogate Schofield selected: Mitchell; Brown, Anderson, Olowu, Nelson, Rowe; Close, Biggins, Molyneux, Hirst; Lavery. G Miller and Lakin came off the bench. Maxwell apart (and why didn't he sign another LB as cover in January?!) that constitutes Rovers best players based on Schofield's selections over time.

We lost that game abjectly 0-2 at home against a team struggling for survival.

At this point Rovers had won 10 points from their prior 10 games which is relegation form. They were now 9 points off the play offs and no longer in "touching distance" with 12 games to go.

Yes after they beat Wimbledon on 11th March (Rovers only win in the last 14 matches) they were 6 points off Salford in 7th with a game in hand. But they were 9 points off 6th placed Bradford and crucially 5 points off 8th place Mansfield who had 2 games in hand on Rovers (and 3 on Salford only 1 point above them).

At this point to get into the play offs they were needing c. 26 points from 11 fixtures (based on Mansfield's ppg then which is in line with what would be needed looking at the table now). That is not in touching distance of the play offs!

Whatever way you want to twist it, if we’d beaten salford in our next game we would’ve been right in touch of the playoffs.

Oh good grief! No we wouldn't!

Look at the table after the Wimbledon game www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64845444. Rovers had 50 points with 11 games left

On a points per game basis Mansfield were the target for the play offs. They had 55 points from 33 matches. Bit of Maths (55/33 x 46 matches) gives an estimated points total for Mansfield (and 7th spot) of 76 points (rounded down if you're checking my workings).

Look at the table now www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-two/table. 76 points still looks a decent estimate for points needed to make the play offs.

Therefore as Rovers had 50 points with 11 games left. They needed about 26 points in 11 games to make the play offs. That is not touching distance.

If they had beaten Salford they would still have needed 23 points from 10 games - equivalent to getting 106 points in a season. Which is not touching distance!

[BillyStubbsTears]

We've been shite all season. People saying we were only a win or only two wins outside the play offs. Aside from one weekend in August we were not in the play offs at any point all season. The reason for this is that we are shite and at no stage accrued points at the required level to get into and stay in the play offs. It wasn't a matter of us yo-yoing in and out of the play offs, we were never in them.

This.

This in spades.

We haven't been serious playoff contenders all season. We had a brief spell when we had the best luck with injuries where we nearly became contenders. But no-one with a level head has looked at our performances all season and thought "that looks like a playoff side", apart from idd, isolated performances under both managers.

And the reason is obvious.

It's a cack squad at the best of times, and it's been regularly pulled apart by injuries all season long.

[ncRover]

The business will be done early I feel. In a month’s time signings will be getting announced.

I will calm down until then. He is here for next season, I have accepted that is that. If he was going he would have done by now.

I am still upset that this season has lazily and carelessly been written off and fans have been lost (albeit hopefully temporarily).

Nor does it stop me being frustrated at the strategic management of this club and anxious about the future.

In the likelihood that he gets found out again next season, we won’t need to campaign on here. The chairman will pull the trigger. If not, then fair play but in terms of the relationship between the club and fans a lot of damage has been done.

[Chris Black come back]

Anyone who has taken even a passing interest in our club these last few seasons will be terrified at the transfer business we will be doing. We have managed at every window dating back to summer 2019 make the squad worse and as a result we have gone backwards every season since then. Oddly, signing players actively makes us worse.

2018/19 season - 6th in League One (play offs)
2019/20 season - 9th in League One
2020/21 season - 14th in League One
2021/22 season - 22nd in League One (relegated)
2022/23 season - 16th in League Two (currently)

We have managed at every window since 2019 to recruit badly and take us backwards.

[drfchound]

Anyone who has taken even a passing interest in our club these last few seasons will be terrified at the transfer business we will be doing. We have managed at every window dating back to summer 2019 make the squad worse and as a result we have gone backwards every season since then. Oddly, signing players actively makes us worse.

2018/19 season - 6th in League One (play offs)
2019/20 season - 9th in League One
2020/21 season - 14th in League One
2021/22 season - 22nd in League One (relegated)
2022/23 season - 16th in League Two (currently)

We have managed at every window since 2019 to recruit badly and take us backwards.

That is a frightening read, and it isn’t just poorer players we have brought in is it.

[Campsall rover]

It’s appalling.

We have clubs like Accrington Stanley, Forest Green Rovers, Burton Albion, Morecambe, Cambridge United, Cheltenham Town, Shrewsbury Town, Stevenage, Sutton United, Salford, Northampton Town, Barrow, Carlisle United, Mansfield Town,  & others I have probably missed who are all smaller clubs than us, some considerably smaller who are all doing so much better than us.

There is a reason. It’s called Leadership, ambition. 
It’s about recruitment of course.
The most important recruitment is the 1st team Manager. Unless we get that right then all the rest just becomes sound bites.

We are an EFL football club ( well at present we still are )
It’s results on the Football pitch that count first and foremost.
That’s what we as supporters turn up hoping to see, winning football.
We go to matches to be entertained to see attacking football, goal mouth action. Players playing with purpose, passion, and with a smile on their faces.

Under DS it has been the worst I have seen ever.
His record over 30 league games is appalling in both results and performances.

What has Blunt & Copps seen to believe DS is going to suddenly become a tactical wizz kid because he has recruited a few decent players this summer ( assuming we do )

Seriously are we as supporters missing something?

The evidence over 30 games suggests that keeping DS in this job with a very inexperienced assistant along side him will only prolong our slide and put the Clubs EFL status in serious danger.

This is not a knee jerk reaction, because we have an agenda reference Danny Scofield.
The facts are starring us all in the face. All the evidence suggests the Chairman & Copps are playing roulette with the clubs future.

It’s insanity and I just can’t believe it’s being allowed to happen.

[Chris Black come back]

We’ve done badly the last few seasons for three reasons in order of impact:

- consistently appalling recruitment
- managerial churn and turnover
- modest budgets

The latter reasonable people can argue over what is and isn’t a decent budget, but the first two elements are absolutely undeniably failures of the club. We’ve recruited the wrong players and the wrong managers. These are self-enforced errors.

Nobody sentient expects us to be in the Championship. Mid-table League One is not unreasonable yet we are now bottom half League Two and going backwards.