Viking Site Opinion Poll

[Herbert Anchovy]

A few more policies from the Reform 'Contract'...

Cut foreign aid by 50%
Lift income tax starting point to £20k
Scrap VAT on energy bills
Abolish tourist tax
Reduce corporation tax
Frontline NHS staff pay zero tax for 3 years
Tax relief for private healthcare companies
Tax relief for independent schools

Recruit 40k more police
Increase defence spending to 2.5% and then 3% GDP
Build 10k new prison places
Increase farming budget by £3 Billion
Protect country sports

Repeal equalities act
Leave European court of human rights
Leave World Health organisation

I'd support a couple of those, but I don't understand how taxes can be cut so significantly whilst spending so much?

[TonySoprano]

Just been looking at the Reform manifesto.

I got as far as this.

"CO2 is essential for photosynthesis to enable plant growth. CO2 only represents 0.04% of the atmosphere; the average garden greenhouse has 3 times more!"

See, what gets me is this. Reform voters take offence at being called thick. But di they ever stop to think what the Reform leaders think about them?

So you've taken a small quote out of context ?
A quote you can't even disprove

Nothing out of context. It's all they say on the subject of quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere.

It's designed to belittle the issue for people too thick to understand data.

"0.04%? That's tiny! How can that do damage. I don't die when I go in a greenhouse. If they ban CO2, won't plants die?"

If it's not meant to elect those reactions, what IS it meant for?

It's completely out of context out of the whole section they have on the environment.

Go on then. Why do you think they've put that specific text in there?

I'd say they are referring to the billions being spent on the green agenda, often at the expense of British companies.
Which is a futile excercise when you see India and China building hundreds of coal power stations every year, and Brazil decimating the Amazon recently.

Out efforts are practically the equivalent of a cow fart, compared to what those countries are doing.

Don't forget the colossal open cast cobalt mines in Africa that are owned by the Chinese and mined by slaves, just so people in the west can virtue signal with their "zero emission" electric cars.

[SydneyRover]

A few more policies from the Reform 'Contract'...

Cut foreign aid by 50%
Lift income tax starting point to £20k
Scrap VAT on energy bills
Abolish tourist tax
Reduce corporation tax
Frontline NHS staff pay zero tax for 3 years
Tax relief for private healthcare companies
Tax relief for independent schools

Recruit 40k more police
Increase defence spending to 2.5% and then 3% GDP
Build 10k new prison places
Increase farming budget by £3 Billion
Protect country sports

Repeal equalities act
Leave European court of human rights
Leave World Health organisation

I'd support a couple of those, but I don't understand how taxes can be cut so significantly whilst spending so much?

Most of them should be in the Tim Vine thread

[DonnyOsmond]

"Country sports" - Is that another term for hunting?

[danumdon]

"Country sports" - Is that another term for hunting?

Its code to confuse Starmer's metropolitan cabal!

[BillyStubbsTears]

A few more policies from the Reform 'Contract'...

Cut foreign aid by 50%
Lift income tax starting point to £20k
Scrap VAT on energy bills
Abolish tourist tax
Reduce corporation tax
Frontline NHS staff pay zero tax for 3 years
Tax relief for private healthcare companies
Tax relief for independent schools

Recruit 40k more police
Increase defence spending to 2.5% and then 3% GDP
Build 10k new prison places
Increase farming budget by £3 Billion
Protect country sports

Repeal equalities act
Leave European court of human rights
Leave World Health organisation

I'd support a couple of those, but I don't understand how taxes can be cut so significantly whilst spending so much?

Because they've plucked numbers out of thin air to make their figures add up.

For example, as well as spending all that money, they are also going to cut back Govt spending by £50bn/year.

And they reckon increased growth will bring them another £10bn/year in tax income. Justified by a one line calculation.

And they say they'll save £30bn a year by stopping interest payments on QE reserves.  Sounds excellent. Trouble is, for very technical reasons, the BoE has to pay interest on those reserves whilever QE is high. If they don't, they lose control of the ability to change interest rates and then the biggest guard we have against runaway inflation, or deflation vanishes.

The BoE is currently trying to get its QE figures down to a level where it really could stop paying interest on reserves. This is called Quantitative Tightening.

Go on. Have a guess what the RefUK policy is on QT? That's right. To reverse it.

The economic plans in their manifesto read like they were scrawled down on the back of one of Farage's fag packets. They are not remotely realistic. But they sound good to people who know nowt about economics. And of course, they'll never ever be out to the test. But they do give Farage another route to throw shite at everyone else, which he does so well.

If he tries that in the debate tomorrow, someone should remind him what he thought of the Kamikwasi Budget.




f**king idiot.

[drfchound]

It was inevitable that Labour would top the fourth division forum poll and that Conservatives would finish bottom.
No surprises there.
In the outside world I still expect (hope) that Labour win but I don’t think that there will be a big electorate turnout.
I hope they win so I can see how accurate some of the comments on here will prove to be.
The general public are sick to death of politics and politicians and most like to think they are voting for the Party leader, rather than their local candidate.

[normal rules]

A few more policies from the Reform 'Contract'...

Cut foreign aid by 50%
Lift income tax starting point to £20k
Scrap VAT on energy bills
Abolish tourist tax
Reduce corporation tax
Frontline NHS staff pay zero tax for 3 years
Tax relief for private healthcare companies
Tax relief for independent schools

Recruit 40k more police
Increase defence spending to 2.5% and then 3% GDP
Build 10k new prison places
Increase farming budget by £3 Billion
Protect country sports

Repeal equalities act
Leave European court of human rights
Leave World Health organisation

I'd support a couple of those, but I don't understand how taxes can be cut so significantly whilst spending so much?

Because they've plucked numbers out of thin air to make their figures add up.

For example, as well as spending all that money, they are also going to cut back Govt spending by £50bn/year.

And they reckon increased growth will bring them another £10bn/year in tax income. Justified by a one line calculation.

And they say they'll save £30bn a year by stopping interest payments on QE reserves.  Sounds excellent. Trouble is, for very technical reasons, the BoE has to pay interest on those reserves whilever QE is high. If they don't, they lose control of the ability to change interest rates and then the biggest guard we have against runaway inflation, or deflation vanishes.

The BoE is currently trying to get its QE figures down to a level where it really could stop paying interest on reserves. This is called Quantitative Tightening.

Go on. Have a guess what the RefUK policy is on QT? That's right. To reverse it.

The economic plans in their manifesto read like they were scrawled down on the back of one of Farage's fag packets. They are not remotely realistic. But they sound good to people who know nowt about economics. And of course, they'll never ever be out to the test. But they do give Farage another route to throw shite at everyone else, which he does so well.

If he tries that in the debate tomorrow, someone should remind him what he thought of the Kamikwasi Budget.




f**king idiot.

In the interest of reasoned debate. This from the politically neutral New Economic forum.
The government could save £55bn over the next five years if it limits the amount of money the Bank of England pays interest on to commercial banks, according to new analysis from the New Economics Foundation. The Treasury will pay out over £150bn to the Bank of England to fund its payments to the banking sector by 2028, this on top of the £30bn already paid out in 2023. This is a result of the Bank of England paying interest on all central bank reserves, including the £875bn created through quantitative easing (QE).

Instead, the analysis finds that the Bank of England could pay interest on a smaller portion of reserves by requiring commercial banks to hold 10% of their liquid assets in reserves that pay no interest. This would save the government £55bn over the next five years, enough to repair crumbling schools and hospitals and fund installation for 7 million homes.

This 10% ​‘reserve requirement’ is lower than requirements used by central banks in China and Brazil in recent years and the UK in the 1970s. The European Central Bank has recently announced a policy to stop paying interest on these reserves, and the application in the UK has been discussed by former deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sir Paul Tucker.

The Bank of England holds money for commercial banks in reserves and currently pays interest on all of this. The level of interest is set by the Bank’s own interest rates. The Treasury is responsible for funding any gap between the interest the Bank of England receives on bonds bought via quantitative easing and the interest it pays out, along with any losses the Bank makes from active sales.

The analysis shows that how the government could save billions by implementing a tiered reserves policy which would reduce the proportion of central bank reserves that the Bank of England pays interest to the banking sector on. The analysis finds that, over the next five years:

A 1% reserve requirement, equal to the policy implemented at the European Central Bank would save the government £1.3bn a year.
A 2.5% reserve requirement would save the government £3.3bn a year, enough to fund a mass insulation programme for 7m homes over five years. Such reserve requirements are common place in Switzerland.
A 5% reserve requirement would save the government £6.6bn a year, enough to fund repairs for crumbling schools and hospitals over the next five years. Such reserve requirements are lower than those used by China this summer.
A 10% reserve requirement would save the government £11.5bn a year, enough to implement all the above policies. Such reserve requirements would be lower than in the UK in the 1970s.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes NR.

That article is talking about removing SOME of the interest, but it doesn't mention the downsides.

RefUK are talking about removing ALL of the interest, which would basically destroy the BoE's ability to control interest rates.

The only way they could get control back over interest rates would be to end QE. But RefUK say they would reinforce QE.

There's three possibilities here, take your pick but it's one of the three.

1) They've absolutely no f**king idea how stupid what they propose actually is.

2) They know it is stupid but they reckon it'll play well to some people because it will elicit a "Yes why are we paying banks interest?" response from people who don't understand the intricacies. But they know they'll never come to power and have to implement it.

3) As with Brexit, and supporting Truss, and supporting a US candidate who may well bring down NATO, they know damn well this would be yet another way of badly hurting the UK. Which would serve the purposes of the man who Farage has said he admires more than any other political leader.


RefUK

[normal rules]

I doubt very much they would remove all interest payments.
You won’t see this on the side of a bus either as people are generally not interested in how governments cost and budget for large scale policy change.
What people are taking notice of are tax thresholds increasing, fuel duty cuts, energy vat cuts.
Latest yougov poll has reform 2 points behind the tories.
Somewhat academic given that we are probably looking at a Liebore govt.
Liebore will get their chance to govern again. People can happily wave their red flags thinking that change is coming.

It isn’t. And I can’t help but think that the bickering from the left side of the fence on here, is because, in your red hearts, you all know we are about to get 4 or 5 years of the same shit that this current govt have served up. Just under a different colour flag.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I doubt very much they would remove all interest payments.
You won’t see this on the side of a bus either as people are generally not interested in how governments cost and budget for large scale policy change.
What people are taking notice of are tax thresholds increasing, fuel duty cuts, energy vat cuts.
Latest yougov poll has reform 2 points behind the tories.
Somewhat academic given that we are probably looking at a Liebore govt.
Liebore will get their chance to govern again. People can happily wave their red flags thinking that change is coming.

It isn’t. And I can’t help but think that the bickering from the left side of the fence on here, is because, in your red hearts, you all know we are about to get 4 or 5 years of the same shit that this current govt have served up. Just under a different colour flag.

You don't need to doubt it.

They say it in their own manifesto.

They say it would save £30bn/year. Even though the BoE is currently paying out £23bn/year and that's falling asleep QT extends.

You want to bite for them. Go read their manifesto.

[Dutch Uncle]

Living in Northern Ireland the only option I have is 'Other', probably the Alliance Party

[Bentley Bullet]

End of play, day 3.

Labour 40 (54.8%)
Reform 15 (20.5%)
Green 7 (9.6%)
Lib Dem 5 (6.8%)
Conservative 3 (4.1%)
Other 3 (4.1%)

[Bentley Bullet]

Notice we've had one defector from the Tories. I wonder where they've defected to?

[selby]

  The one thing Farage does is frighten the establishment, never a mention by Lord Haw HAW Billy who concentrated all his posts attacking the Tories up to the last weekend.
  Now he is broadcasting to the world on here his character assassination of who he sees as the main threat now to his idea of the promised land.
  Get ready Billy, if he is in it for the long haul all the three established parties are in trouble, and now the Labour Party are siding with the Palestinian's and making noises about a two state way to peace, to keep their Islamist voters on side, they are doing two things, inviting in a fifth column with their own agenda  and alienating their core support especially in the red wall constituencies. and he will exploit any weakness shown when in opposition.

[selby]

  Country Sports, it's nothing to do with hunting, they are referring to every where's equivalent to Askern's Mucky Lane wey hey.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Has anyone else done the quiz thing? I'd be really interested to know if it makes anyone reconsider their voting preference.

If you were planning to vote for a party but you only had 50% preference in common with their manifesto would that sway you?

For the record, although they're not my most ideologically aligned I'm sticking with the Lib Dems as I'm in a position in my local party in which I would hope to influence policy from within rather than jump ship to someone else whenever there's a small variance. Had the party ranked much further down the list I would be seriously considering looking into the alternatives in more detail.

I have and I worry it's authentic because I've no intention of voting for the one it reckons I align with (and it surprises me).

82% Conservative#
68% Reclaim
54% Lib Dem
54% UKIP
51% Labour
50% Rejoin EU (surprised that was higher than 0%)
Loads of others in the high 40s.

Really surprised me, but I suspect it's the taxes, economic elements that sway it.  It's very hard given the categories though because most of my answers would be yes/no but only if etc.....  Politics isn't simple!

[Mike_F]

Yes, Pud there were a few questions on which I clicked for more options but still didn't find anything that resembled my criteria for answering as I would like. I still think that as a broadly directional tool with a tolerance of +/-5% it's a useful exercise.

[Mike_F]

I don't understand how taxes can be cut so significantly whilst spending so much?

Complete privatisation of the NHS would save £192bn in spend and no doubt bring in a hefty chunk of revenue from those private healthcare providers for whom they pledge to cut tax. Make no mistake, Farage is desperate for us to have a healthcare system like the USA. Ask any American who has spent time living in the UK and they will tell you how crippling that would be to the public. I'm amazed that anyone buys this "Nige is a man of the people speaking common sense" bullshit.

[Sprotyrover]

Just done the quiz 80%Tory%UKIP, 60% Lib Dem 52% Labour

[normal rules]

If this is the first TikTok election, you might be surprised at who's winning.

On the youngest, buzziest social media platform, Reform UK - whose vote tends somewhat towards the elderly - has the most followers, 125,500, just ahead of Labour on 108,500. (Dated 30 May)

[BillyStubbsTears]

If this is the first TikTok election, you might be surprised at who's winning.

On the youngest, buzziest social media platform, Reform UK - whose vote tends somewhat towards the elderly - has the most followers, 125,500, just ahead of Labour on 108,500. (Dated 30 May)

I'm just imagining who occupies the Venn Diagram overlap between RefUK supporters and TikTok users...

[Padge_DRFC]

Finally read their manifesto. Decent to be fair.

[ncRover]

No Reform candidate standing in Doncaster North apparently.

[Padge_DRFC]

No Reform candidate standing in Doncaster North apparently.

That's a shame would have been a good runner up.

[Superspy]

I imagine they're going to concentrate their resources in seats they can steal from the tories

[Bentley Bullet]

Reform has lost a vote in this poll, seemingly to the Tories.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I imagine they're going to concentrate their resources in seats they can steal from the tories

Polls have them forecast to come 2nd in Doncaster central.  I'm in edenthorpe where I'm sure weirdly we had a ukip councillor at some point.

[Bentley Bullet]

Looks like the Greens have conceded one to the Tories also.

[DonnyOsmond]

Looks like the Greens have conceded one to the Tories also.

That's an odd switch.